China
Beijing Navigates Challenges in the South China Sea
In 2024, Southeast Asian nations resisted China’s aggression in the South China Sea, achieving modest developments despite increased tensions. China’s strategies proved ineffective as regional cooperation strengthened.
Southeast Asian Resistance to Chinese Aggression
In 2024, Southeast Asian nations pushed back against China’s growing assertiveness in the South China Sea, making modest progress amidst heightened tensions. Countries such as the Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Malaysia continued to develop oil and gas projects, strengthen their defenses, and build international alliances. These actions represented a strategic setback for Beijing, which had sought to assert dominance over the region.
Despite intensifying confrontations, China has struggled to consolidate its gains, sticking to ineffective tactics it has employed since 2022. Increased patrols by the China Coast Guard (CCG) in the exclusive economic zones of Southeast Asia saw new forms of grey zone violence, particularly targeting the Philippines. Meanwhile, Southeast Asian states managed to secure limited successes despite the pressure from Beijing.
Tensions escalated significantly at Second Thomas Shoal, where the Philippines maintains a military base aboard the grounded BRP Sierra Madre. Although the 2016 Permanent Court of Arbitration affirmed Philippine rights to the shoal, China continues to assert its claim. The blockade of Philippine resupply missions by CCG and militia ships further heightened fears of conflict, with changing tactics leading to injuries among Filipino personnel, raising concerns about potential US defense obligations under the Mutual Defense Treaty.
