The Impact of the 2024 Presidential Election Outcome on US-China Relations: Trump v Harris

On July 21, 2024, President Joe Biden dropped out of the election race, endorsing Kamala Harris as the Democratic Party candidate. Harris’s foreign policy towards China is expected to be similar to Biden’s. Both candidates prioritize reducing trade deficit and reliance on Chinese imports, with slight differences in their approaches.

UPDATE: On July 21, 2024, incumbent President Joe Biden dropped out of the 2024 presidential election race, opening up a space for a new candidate for the Democratic Party. Shortly after, he officially endorsed his Vice President, Kamala Harris, as the Democratic Party candidate. On August 22, 2024, during the Democratic National Convention (DNC), Harris was officially nominated as the presidential candidate by the Democratic Party.

As Harris has served as Vice President under the Biden Administration, her foreign policy will be similar to President Biden’s, including policy positions toward China. This means that the trajectory of China-US relations under a potential Harris presidency would not be drastically different from that under a second Biden term. Nonetheless, her potential accession to the highest office will open up new questions and possibilities for the relationship. China Briefing will continue to monitor events in the US presidential election and provide analysis of the potential impact on relations with China.

At this pivotal moment, we have unique insight into the potential trajectory for US-China relations in 2025, as both candidate’s have served in prior administrations, providing a blueprint for the kinds of policies and tactics they would adopt. Broadly speaking, the two candidates have similar visions regarding their policies in China. Both Trump and Harris share a resolute stance on addressing trade imbalances and national security concerns, underscoring the bipartisan consensus on adopting a hardline approach to engagement with China.

Nonetheless, from trade policies to technology strategies, the campaign agendas of Trump and Harris offer slightly diverging paths, each carrying profound implications for the future of US-China relations.

In this article, we look at the key differences and similarities between Trump’s and Harris’s China agendas to discuss the possible implications of a second term for either candidate, as well as the impact the outcome could have on business and trade interests.

Trade is arguably the most critical issue in the US’s China policy agenda, with anti-China positions garnering bipartisan support. Both sides of the political aisle agree on the importance of reducing the trade deficit with China and decreasing reliance on Chinese imports. This consensus has led to the implementation of trade barriers during both the Trump and Biden administrations.

This article is republished from China Briefing. Read the rest of the original article.

China Briefing is written and produced by Dezan Shira & Associates. The practice assists foreign investors into China and has done since 1992 through offices in Beijing, Tianjin, Dalian, Qingdao, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Ningbo, Suzhou, Guangzhou, Dongguan, Zhongshan, Shenzhen, and Hong Kong. Please contact the firm for assistance in China at china@dezshira.com.