China
Vietnam’s great power balancing act
Abstract
Vietnam’s balanced approach to its relationships with the United States and China has earned positive reactions from both countries, demonstrating the importance of maintaining national sovereignty.
The relationship between the US and Vietnam was upgraded to a ‘comprehensive strategic partnership’ in September 2023. Many observers anticipated that this move would provoke backlash from China. However, Beijing reacted rather mildly, and Chinese President Xi Jinping made an official visit to Vietnam soon after US President Joe Biden. China’s press coverage of Xi’s visit also indicated that China-Vietnam relations remain on good terms. This suggests that Vietnam has struck the right balance in handling its relations with the two main great powers.
Vietnam has historically managed great power relations through a distinctive balance between deterrence, assurance, and hedging strategies. The Vietnamese people understand the need to maintain a robust national defense force for deterrence purposes, given their long history of fighting off invasions. Additionally, Vietnam has significantly modernized its military, especially with a focus on developing maritime capabilities. Deterrence alone is rarely sufficient to maintain peace, which is why assurance is the centerpiece of Vietnam’s effort to manage relations with great powers.
Vietnamese and Chinese officials held discussions both prior to and after the upgrading of relations with the United States. This was likely done to reassure Beijing that the upgrade is not aimed at containing China. The last component of Vietnam’s great power balancing is active hedging. The US-China rapprochement showed Vietnamese policymakers that great powers are willing to cut deals behind the backs.
