China
Diplomatic shifts belie continuity in North Korea
Abstract
In 2023, North Korea’s foreign policy continued without compromise with the United States. Aid from China prevented the economy from collapsing. Kim Jong Un’s daughter may be groomed as his successor. Russia re-emerged as a major player.
In 2023, North Korea continued its foreign policy line following the failed attempt to compromise with the United States during the former Trump administration. The year was characterized by four significant shifts in diplomacy, but these shifts might be less important than they appear.
First, North Korea’s domestic policy was largely influenced by the rivalry between the United States and China. China began providing aid to North Korea to maintain stability and as a strategic buffer amid deepening confrontation with the United States. The aid, however modest, helped prevent the collapse of the North Korean economy.
The United States is expected to maintain a hardline attitude, and the UN-imposed sanctions regime makes economic interactions with other countries highly difficult. There is little hope for the revival of intra-Korean ‘cooperation’, and the right-wing government in Seoul has also adopted a hardline stance towards Pyongyang.
North Korea made adjustments to its economic policy in 2023, halting the economic reforms pursued from 2012 to 2019 and focusing on reviving the centrally planned economy of the 1970s, despite its economic inefficiency. Additionally, North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un appeared to be laying the foundations for the next dynastic transition, possibly grooming his daughter as his successor. Lastly, Russia re-emerged as a major player in North Korea in 2023.
