China
China’s population drops for the first time since 1960s famine
China’s population has decreased for the first time in over 60 years, signaling the start of long-term decline that will bring demographic challenges for the world’s second-largest economy as well as the world.
Last year, 9.56 million babies were born in China, while 10.41 billion people died, a yearly decrease of 850,000 to 1,411,750,000 people, according to data published by China’s National Bureau of Statistics.
It was the first decline since 1961, the final year of the famine brought on by failing economic policies during Mao Zedong’s “Great Leap Forward,” the campaign to transform China from a mostly agrarian society into an industrial one that ended in disaster.
India may now be the most populous country on Earth, Reuters reported, with an estimated population of 1.42 billion, though pandemic-related delays in that country’s census have yet to confirm the actual total.
The long-term outlook for China, according to U.N. experts, is that the population will continue to decrease by about 109 million people to 1.3 billion by 2050.
The turning point puts China in a similar situation as regional neighbor Japan, whose population has been shrinking, and South Korea, where birth rates are declining after rapid economic growth, leaving fewer young people in the workforce to support a swelling number of retirees. That has put a larger tax burden on workers and could lead to economic stagnation.
Already, China’s economy is slowing. From a peak of 14.2% growth in 2007, its 2022 figure was a mere 3%, less than half the growth rate of 2021 and the lowest in almost 40 years.
Policy and pessimism
The demographic shift reflects both the results of China’s one-child policy and a pessimism about the future, experts said.
An unintended consequence of the one-child policy, which lasted from 1980 to 2015, combined with a cultural preference for boys, has led to a major gender imbalance, resulting in fewer possible families being formed, especially in rural areas.
This policy “broke the normal ecological balance of China’s population,” said Chen Guangcheng, a civil rights activist.
But there is also an economic and psychological element contributing to this trend. Combined with skyrocketing housing and education prices that come with robust economic growth, many young Chinese today simply do not envision children in their future.
“A decline in the willingness to have children reflects the hardships of Chinese people’s daily lives,” Wu Qiang, a Beijing-based scholar who focuses on population, told RFA’s Mandarin Service. “This is a reflection of their pessimism about the future.”
And the recent surge in COVID-19-related deaths has driven home China’s demographic dynamics.
“Almost every family is mourning the loss of loved ones,” Wu said. ”To most citizens it’s not just a statistical figure; it’s a deep, painful cut.”
As fewer Chinese enter the workforce and more age out, the result will be that economic growth will be dependent on productivity increases, Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, told Reuters.
China, whose rapid growth as the world’s factory floor led it to surpass Japan as the world’s second-largest economy in 2010, is bound to see its economic growth decline, said Yi Fuxian, a scientist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.
“I predict that by 2030 to 2035, China’s economic growth rate will be lower than that of the United States,” he said.
How to stimulate population growth?
Since the end of the one-child policy, China, like South Korea and Japan, has enacted policies meant to encourage young people to have children, including housing and tax incentives and longer parental leave, but these have not proved effective.
Yi said that China’s attempts to stimulate birth rates will be even less successful than they have in Japan, because China’s government has fewer resources.
“I predict that if the Chinese government does not carry out earth-shaking reforms, in the next few decades or even hundreds of years, China’s population will continue to shrink,” said Yi.
Chen Guangcheng believes that the party may indeed enact extreme policies to increase the population.
“The problem now is that the declining population will expand rapidly in the future. Therefore, if it were not for the Chinese Communist Party’s intervention and violent destruction, today’s [population problems] would not be possible,” Chen said.
“[These] various methods that can be imagined or unexpected, changing [the Party’s] violent family planning into violent forced birth policy. It is very possible,” Chen said.
The population decline may have started earlier than 2022, and Chinese authorities are only now acknowledging it, Gao Yang, an independent journalist who reports on population and family planning policies, told RFA.
Gao suspects the authenticity of Chinese government population statistics, especially with a rapid increase in deaths during the coronavirus pandemic.
“I personally think population decline began several years ago and gradually developed to its current very serious extent before finally having to be admitted,” said Gao.
“A sharp population decline is not nine years down the road, as some experts predicted, but will in fact begin this year,” he said. “2023 could mark the start of serious, long-term population decline.”
Translated by Chase Bodiford, Jerry Zhao, Tian Li, and Laura Huang. Written in English by Eugene Whong. Edited by Malcolm Foster.
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China
New Report from Dezan Shira & Associates: China Takes the Lead in Emerging Asia Manufacturing Index 2024
China has been the world’s largest manufacturer for 14 years, producing one-third of global manufacturing output. In the Emerging Asia Manufacturing Index 2024, China ranks highest among eight emerging countries in the region. Challenges for these countries include global demand disparities affecting industrial output and export orders.
Known as the “World’s Factory”, China has held the title of the world’s largest manufacturer for 14 consecutive years, starting from 2010. Its factories churn out approximately one-third of the global manufacturing output, a testament to its industrial might and capacity.
China’s dominant role as the world’s sole manufacturing power is reaffirmed in Dezan Shira & Associates’ Emerging Asia Manufacturing Index 2024 report (“EAMI 2024”), in which China secures the top spot among eight emerging countries in the Asia-Pacific region. The other seven economies are India, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam, and Bangladesh.
The EAMI 2024 aims to assess the potential of these eight economies, navigate the risks, and pinpoint specific factors affecting the manufacturing landscape.
In this article, we delve into the key findings of the EAMI 2024 report and navigate China’s advantages and disadvantages in the manufacturing sector, placing them within the Asia-Pacific comparative context.
Emerging Asia countries face various challenges, especially in the current phase of increased volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity (VUCA). One notable challenge is the impact of global demand disparities on the manufacturing sector, affecting industrial output and export orders.
This article is republished from China Briefing. Read the rest of the original article.
China Briefing is written and produced by Dezan Shira & Associates. The practice assists foreign investors into China and has done since 1992 through offices in Beijing, Tianjin, Dalian, Qingdao, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Ningbo, Suzhou, Guangzhou, Dongguan, Zhongshan, Shenzhen, and Hong Kong. Please contact the firm for assistance in China at china@dezshira.com.
China
Is journalist Vicky Xu preparing to return to China?
Chinese social media influencers have recently claimed that prominent Chinese-born Australian journalist Vicky Xu had posted a message saying she planned to return to China.
There is no evidence for this. The source did not provide evidence to support the claim, and Xu herself later confirmed to AFCL that she has no such plans.
Currently working as an analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, or ASPI, Xu has previously written for both the Australian Broadcasting Corporation, or ABC, and The New York Times.
A Chinese language netizen on X initially claimed on March 31 that the changing geopolitical relations between Sydney and Beijing had caused Xu to become an expendable asset and that she had posted a message expressing a strong desire to return to China. An illegible, blurred photo of the supposed message accompanied the post.
This claim was retweeted by a widely followed influencer on the popular Chinese social media site Weibo one day later, who additionally commented that Xu was a “traitor” who had been abandoned by Australian media.
Following the publication of an ASPI article in 2021 which exposed forced labor conditions in Xinjiang co-authored by Xu, the journalist was labeled “morally bankrupt” and “anti-China” by the Chinese state owned media outlet Global Times and subjected to an influx of threatening messages and digital abuse, eventually forcing her to temporarily close several of her social media accounts.
AFCL found that neither Xu’s active X nor LinkedIn account has any mention of her supposed return to China, and received the following response from Xu herself about the rumor:
“I can confirm that I don’t have plans to go back to China. I think if I do go back I’ll most definitely be detained or imprisoned – so the only career I’ll be having is probably going to be prison labor or something like that, which wouldn’t be ideal.”
Neither a keyword search nor reverse image search on the photo attached to the original X post turned up any text from Xu supporting the netizens’ claims.
Translated by Shen Ke. Edited by Shen Ke and Malcolm Foster.
Asia Fact Check Lab (AFCL) was established to counter disinformation in today’s complex media environment. We publish fact-checks, media-watches and in-depth reports that aim to sharpen and deepen our readers’ understanding of current affairs and public issues. If you like our content, you can also follow us on Facebook, Instagram and X.
Read the rest of this article here >>> Is journalist Vicky Xu preparing to return to China?
China
Guide for Foreign Residents: Obtaining a Certificate of No Criminal Record in China
Foreign residents in China can request a criminal record check from their local security bureau. This certificate may be required for visa applications or job opportunities. Requirements and procedures vary by city. In Shanghai, foreigners must have lived there for 180 days with a valid visa to obtain the certificate.
Foreign residents living in China can request a criminal record check from the local security bureau in the city in which they have lived for at least 180 days. Certificates of no criminal record may be required for people leaving China, or those who are starting a new position in China and applying for a new visa or residence permit. Taking Shanghai as an example, we outline the requirements for obtaining a China criminal record check.
Securing a Certificate of No Criminal Record, often referred to as a criminal record or criminal background check, is a crucial step for various employment opportunities, as well as visa applications and residency permits in China. Nevertheless, navigating the process can be a daunting task due to bureaucratic procedures and language barriers.
In this article, we use Shanghai as an example to explore the essential information and steps required to successfully obtain a no-criminal record check. Requirements and procedures may differ in other cities and counties in China.
Note that foreigners who are not currently living in China and need a criminal record check to apply for a Chinese visa must obtain the certificate from their country of residence or nationality, and have it notarized by a Chinese embassy or consulate in that country.
Foreigners who have a valid residence permit and have lived in Shanghai for at least 180 days can request a criminal record check in the city. This means that the applicant will also need to currently have a work, study, or other form of visa or stay permit that allows them to live in China long-term.
If a foreigner has lived in another part of China and is planning to or has recently moved to Shanghai, they will need to request a criminal record check in the place where they previously spent at least 180 days.
There are two steps to obtaining a criminal record certificate in Shanghai: requesting the criminal record check from the Public Security Bureau (PSB) and getting the resulting Certificate of No Criminal Record notarized by an authorized notary agency.
This article is republished from China Briefing. Read the rest of the original article.
China Briefing is written and produced by Dezan Shira & Associates. The practice assists foreign investors into China and has done since 1992 through offices in Beijing, Tianjin, Dalian, Qingdao, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Ningbo, Suzhou, Guangzhou, Dongguan, Zhongshan, Shenzhen, and Hong Kong. Please contact the firm for assistance in China at china@dezshira.com.
- New Report from Dezan Shira & Associates: China Takes the Lead in Emerging Asia Manufacturing Index 2024
- Is journalist Vicky Xu preparing to return to China?
- Guide for Foreign Residents: Obtaining a Certificate of No Criminal Record in China
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