China
How will Duterte’s successor deal with China?
Author: Richard Javad Heydarian, Manila
Over the past five years, bilateral relations between China and the Philippines, a United States treaty ally, have undergone a tremendous transformation. In the words of a top Chinese diplomat, what we have witnessed, especially under Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, is a ‘golden age’ in bilateral relations.
But in his twilight months in office ahead of the May 2022 presidential elections, the Filipino president — who is constitutionally confined to a single six-year term in office — has adopted a dramatically divergent tone on China.
During the recent China-ASEAN Summit, Duterte abhorred purported harassment of Philippine resupply missions in the South China Sea by Chinese vessels. Amid the latest flare up in maritime tensions over the Second Thomas Shoal, Duterte openly warned, ‘this does not speak well of the relations between our nations and our partnership’ and called on the Philippines to utilise legal tools to maintain peace in the South China Sea.
The abrupt shift in Duterte’s tone may appear to be driven by contingent elements, namely public pressure at home amid the standoff over the disputed shoal. It’s clear that Duterte and his successor will come under growing pressure from the public and the defence establishment to take a more robust stance on China.
Following weeks of rollercoaster political manoeuvres, the line-up of Duterte’s potential successors is now effectively finalised. By all indications, neither presidential daughter Sara Duterte or long-time presidential aide Senator Christopher ‘Bong’ Go will be in the contention for the presidency this time. That has left Ferdinand ‘Bongbong’ Marcos Jr as the clear frontrunner in the 2022 presidential elections.
Bongbong Marcos is the only popular candidate to have openly backed continuity in Philippine foreign policy towards China by emphasising the futility of confrontation and the value of robust economic cooperation with the Asian powerhouse.
His father, the late dictator Ferdinand Marcos, was one of the first leaders among top US allies in Asia to open communication channels and formalise bilateral relations with Maoist China in the mid-1970s. Anticipating warm ties under a Marcos Jr presidency, Chinese Ambassador to the Philippines Huang Xilian has openly fawned over the current frontrunner.
Philippine Vice President Maria Leonor ‘Leni’ Robredo, the de-facto leader of the opposition, who has mostly ranked second in key surveys, has indicated a more radical departure from Duterte’s policy. She is emphasising robust defence relations with traditional Western allies and promoting the 2016 arbitral tribunal award at The Hague, which Beijing has rejected, as the ultimate basis for management of disputes with China in the South China Sea. As for boxer-turned-politician Emmanuel ‘Manny’ Pacquiao, the former Duterte ally has also adopted a far tougher stance on China and even gone so far as accusing Duterte of soft-pedalling on maritime disputes.
But to best understand the likely direction of Philippine policy, one should look at the position of more ‘centrist’ candidates, who are consciously tweaking their foreign policy messaging based on public opinion and the sentiments of the defence establishment.
Manila Mayor Francisco ‘Isko’ Moreno, who is placed third in most surveys, has advocated for a ‘middle course’ on practically every major issue, including the South China Sea disputes. In recent months, he has both emphasised the value of engagement with China and strengthening the Philippines’ defensive capabilities.
Moreno has backed potential joint energy exploration agreements in the South China Sea to de-escalate tensions and foster a cooperative relationship with China. At the same time, he has supported revitalised military ties with Washington, while warning of a swift and decisive response against any Chinese harassment of Filipino fishermen and vessels in the disputed areas.
The wisdom behind the foreign policy posturing of top centrist candidates such as Moreno, who is trying to win supporters from across the political spectrum, is based on the ebbs and flows of broader public opinion. The United States enjoys high favourability ratings among Filipinos, often among the highest in the world, while China has historically suffered from very low trust ratings.
According to the Social Weather Stations polling agency, China’s net trust rating among Filipinos was only positive in nine out of 53 surveys conducted between 1994 and 2020. In 2020,…
China
Understanding risks for Australia of China’s slowing economy is Chalmers’ top priority at upcoming Beijing talks
Treasurer Jim Chalmers will visit Beijing for the Australia-China Strategic Economic Dialogue, addressing economic ties, trade issues, and concerns regarding China’s investments in Australia amidst complex bilateral relations.
When Treasurer Jim Chalmers travels to Beijing later this month, he and his counterpart at China’s peak economic agency, the National Development and Reform Commission, won’t be short on important topics to discuss.
Chalmers will be attending the Australia-China Strategic Economic Dialogue, one part of a tripartite agreement secured by the Gillard government in 2013.
The purpose was to hold annual talks at the highest level. The agreement also includes a Leaders’ Dialogue and a Foreign and Strategic Dialogue involving the two countries’ foreign ministers.
Troubled times
The dialogue was last held in September 2017 as the state of official ties began turning south.
It was then formally suspended by Beijing in May 2021 after the Morrison government cancelled the Victorian state government’s Memorandum of Understanding to participate in China’s “belt and road initiative”.
Its resurrection has been slow in coming. The stabilisation in the bilateral relationship under the Albanese government has already seen reciprocal visits involving leaders and foreign ministers. But it was not until June the two sides signed a new memorandum to bring back the dialogue.
The fact Chalmers was able to confirm the trip last Sunday is another sign Canberra and Beijing remain committed to talking. This is despite there being numerous issues over which they are at odds.
Chalmers’ concerns
For the Treasurer, the priority will be getting a first-hand read on China’s struggling economy and the risks this presents to Australia’s own outlook.
When announcing the visit he alluded to one scenario his department was tracking that could see Commonwealth budget revenue take a $4.5 billion hit due to falling prices for key commodity exports, including iron ore and lithium.
Slowing Chinese growth and falling commodity prices are clearly not positives for Australian income, but Chalmers is unlikely to return in a state of panic.
The latest trade figures show China continuing to import Australian iron ore and lithium at record or near record volumes.
Despite slowing growth China is still importing large volumes of Australia’s iron ore.
Dean Lewins/AAP
This points to increasing supply and a lack of demand from other countries being at least as relevant in explaining recent price falls. And both are coming off extraordinary price spikes to now be approaching levels more in line with historical averages.
The impact of Chinese growth on its demand for Australian goods and services has also never been a simple, one-to-one relationship. That remains true today.
A complex relationship
Australian wine exports, for example, are booming after Beijing removed tariffs earlier this year.
China’s customs agencies put the value of imported Australian wine over the past three months at US$252 million, or around A$400 million. This topped the $A357 million sold over the past year to the US, Australia’s second largest customer.
Students from China are also commencing at Australian universities in record numbers, albeit this is likely to fall next year due to restrictions imposed by Canberra, not Beijing.
That China remains a stand-out market is reflected in the large numbers of businesses and politicians attending the Australia-China Business Council’s Canberra Networking Day on Thursday. Trade Minister Don Farrell, Foreign Minister Penny Wong, Shadow Trade Minister Kevin Hogan and Shadow Foreign Minister Simon Birmingham are all slated to give speeches.
Chalmers will also be keen to raise the lingering import ban Beijing imposed in 2020 affecting Australian lobsters. Trade Minister Don Farrell said in June he was “very confident that in the near future” the ban would be lifted. Chalmers’ visit might provide the occasion to announce a final resolution.
China’s concerns
For China, top of the list of concerns will be Australia’s treatment of Chinese investors, particularly in sectors like critical minerals. In the past they have been welcomed but since 2020 there’s been an apparent de-facto ban on further involvement.
A recent survey of Chinese businesses in Australia pointed to generally positive sentiment. Almost 80% said they were optimistic about the outlook of the local business environment. Still, while 72.5% did not consider they had experienced discriminatory treatment, 42.4% felt the enforcement of Australia’s laws and regulations lacked transparency.
It’s not hard to see why. When Chalmers was asked in an interview last Sunday whether or not he wanted “China’s investment in critical minerals processing in Australia”, he did not reply with a “no”. Nor did he provide even a qualified “yes”.
China will likely also be seeking reassurance Canberra will not join Washington and some other capitals usually regarded as geopolitically “like-minded” in putting up tariff barriers on Chinese imports.
This reassurance shouldn’t be difficult for Chalmers to provide. Unlike the US, Australia’s economic relationship with China remains overwhelmingly complementary. Last year, Australia’s exports to China exceeded imports by $110.7 billion.
And low-cost, high-quality imports from China, such as electric vehicles, would be welcomed by the government amid a cost-of-living crisis and the net zero transition.
Late last month, Chris Bowen, Australia’s Minister for Climate and Energy, hosted his Chinese counterpart for the 8th Australia-China Ministerial Dialogue on Climate Change in Sydney.
A bipartisan approach
Trade with China also enjoys bipartisan support. In March, Minister Farrell touted the potential for two-way trade to increase from $300 billion to $400 billion.
Not to be outdone, opposition leader Peter Dutton said in June he’d “love to see the trading relationship [with China] increase two-fold”.
Chalmers was on the money this week in stating Australia’s relationship with China is now “full of complexity and full of opportunity”. His upcoming trip can only help in managing the former and realising the latter.
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
China
Establishing a Family Office in Hong Kong
Hong Kong’s strategic location, strong financial infrastructure, and favorable tax regime make it a prime hub for family offices, with over 2,700 operating by 2023. Its evolution as a wealth management center supports effective family wealth transfer and management strategies.
Hong Kong’s strategic location, robust financial infrastructure, favorable tax regime, and high quality of life make it an ideal destination for establishing family offices, offering comprehensive support for wealth management and long-term family planning.
Hong Kong’s family office sector has seen remarkable growth, with a recent market study revealing that over 2,700 single-family offices were reportedly operating in the city as of December 31, 2023. This significant number highlights Hong Kong’s position as a global hub for family offices, complementing its long-standing reputation as an international center for asset and wealth management.
Historically, Hong Kong’s role in managing family wealth dates back to the late 1800s, and it has evolved into one of Asia’s largest cross-border wealth management centers. The recent surge in family offices can be attributed to the city’s strategic initiatives, including the development of a world-class family office regime. The Hong Kong government’s ongoing efforts to attract more family offices have led to new policies and incentives, reinforcing the city’s status as a premier destination for global family offices.
In this article, we explore the key factors that shape Hong Kong’s family office sector and a outline the steps to establish a family office in Hong Kong.
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A family office is a specialized entity designed to manage the wealth and needs of high-net-worth individuals and families. By consolidating investments and financial management under one roof, a family office provides greater control, transparency, and efficiency. This is particularly crucial as we approach a significant intergenerational wealth transfer, with an estimated US$8 trillion expected to change hands by 2029, according to Credit Suisse.
Family offices vary in structure, typically tailored to the specific needs of the family. Commonly, they involve a holding company or investment vehicles within a trust, centralizing financial operations and bringing dedicated expertise in-house. This setup also offers younger generations a platform to gain experience in investment management and business operations, preparing them to manage family wealth in the future.
| This article was first published by China Briefing , which is produced by Dezan Shira & Associates. The firm assists foreign investors throughout Asia from offices across the world, including in in China, Hong Kong, Vietnam, Singapore, and India . Readers may write to info@dezshira.com for more support. |
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Business
China Stimulates Economic Growth Through New Policies – London Business News | Londonlovesbusiness.com
Chinese officials will report on policies aimed at boosting economic growth, focusing on structural optimization and sustainability post-National Day festivities, addressing challenges like the pandemic and trade tensions.
Key Economic Growth Policies
Senior officials from China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), led by Zheng Shanjie, will report on key economic growth policies this Tuesday. The conference will focus on implementing progressive measures aimed at revitalizing the economy and ensuring sustainable long-term development. Following a festive season, including National Day, authorities emphasize the importance of leveraging this period to invigorate economic activities.
Addressing Economic Challenges
China is currently facing significant challenges that threaten its status as the world’s second-largest economy. Factors such as the pandemic and international trade tensions have contributed to a recent economic slowdown. In response, the government has enacted measures like interest rate cuts and relaxed real estate market restrictions, aiming to boost essential sectors such as construction and consumption.
The Role of the NDRC
The NDRC plays a pivotal role in these policy implementations. By coordinating various measures, the agency seeks to balance short-term growth with structural optimization for future stability. As China navigates this critical juncture, the decisions made at the upcoming conference will be vital for ensuring economic resilience and positioning the nation as a global leader.
Source : China boosts economic growth with new policies – London Business News | Londonlovesbusiness.com
- Understanding risks for Australia of China’s slowing economy is Chalmers’ top priority at upcoming Beijing talks
- Establishing a Family Office in Hong Kong
- China Stimulates Economic Growth Through New Policies – London Business News | Londonlovesbusiness.com
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