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Asean

How will China become ‘democratic’?

Author: Yawei Liu, Carter Centre No Chinese Communist leader has ever said democracy is a bad thing. When asked how the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) would avoid the notorious dynastic cycles of the previous emperors, Mao Zedong proudly said that the CCP had found a miraculous mechanism to keep them away: democracy. Deng Xiaoping repeatedly said that the ultimate reform was political reform. Without political reform, there is no way to sustain economic reform. Deng even predicted that China might adopt national presidential elections by 2050 after she overcame gaps in wealth and education between urban dwellers and rural residents . Both Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao at the past four CCP national congresses touted ‘four democracies’ at the grassroots level, namely democratic elections, democratic decision-making, democratic management and democratic supervision in official and public affairs. Nevertheless, it is Premier Wen Jiabao who has in recent years turned the vague rhetoric of adopting democracy into a real action plan-cum-timetable. In Wen’s design, China’s democracy is made up of three components: first, direct elections moving up from villages to towns and to counties; second, restraining government power via independent judiciary oversight; and third, enhancing government accountability through a freer and more autonomous media. Wen’s repeated calls for meaningful political reform have not only fallen on deaf ears within the top echelons of the CCP, but also disillusioned the broad masses, as the latter have not seen any tangible action being taken. Some even label Wen as the best actor in China’s theatre of politics. If people see Wen as merely being a good actor, many CCP movers and shakers may perceive his utterance on initiating political transformation as an unfathomable threat to the political consensus and a devious plot to influence power transition at the upcoming 18 th CCP National Congress. In response Wu Bangguo, who is ranked second in the CCP Politburo Standing Committee, seems to have attempted to put the brakes on Wen’s runaway train by making a solemn ‘six nos’ declaration at the recent annual session of the National People’s Congress in Beijing. The now infamous ‘six nos’ are no multiple party system, no diversity in ideology, no checks and balances, no two-chamber parliament, no federal republic and no privatisation. If Wu indeed wanted to shut down Wen’s vision for political reform, he is missing the target by a wide margin because none of the ‘six nos’ are remotely applicable to Wen’s proposals. In fact, if the CCP does have political reform (or democracy with Chinese characteristics) in mind, its engineers do not need to ‘westernise’ anything for now. Although these reform measures do eventually require amending the Constitution and relevant laws, most of them will fall into China’s current legal framework. In order to implement democratic reform, first, direct village election measures need to be put in place for the election of deputies to town and country people’s congresses. China has about four million elected people’s deputies at five levels (town, county, municipal, provincial and national) and the elections at the town and county levels are direct. Adopting village elections measures at these two levels means free nomination of candidates, unrestricted campaigns by candidates, multiple candidates and secret ballots. These elected local people’s deputies will not only elect township and county magistrates but also deputies at the next higher level. Competitive, open and free elections at these two levels will change the dynamics of China’s politics overnight. Yes, CCP candidates may dominate the process as the system now exists, but it does provide an avenue for non-party candidates to compete free of hassle by the CCP apparatus. This first step needs no major amendments to the Constitution and laws. Second, is to allow people’s congress deputies at all levels (during the trial period, it may first be limited to the bottom two levels) to use their authority to the fullest extent, as stipulated by the law. Their authority includes electing executive leadership of the government at the same level, approving budgets and expenditure, auditing reports by the judicial and law enforcement branches of government, and voting on all major decisions of government. This requires no change whatsoever to existing law but certainly requires the CCP to cede lower level control and stop manipulating or interfering in the proceedings of people’s congresses. This seems to be the biggest hurdle for an empowered and accountable people’s congress system to take shape. Third, is for the people’s deputies to be responsible, responsive and respectful to the people who elect them. Their number should be significantly reduced and their representation determined by geography. For example, a Chinese scholar suggests that the NPC cannot function unless its number is cut from the current number of about 3,000 to about 800. No one of the 800 should come from the central government or the military but strictly from the provinces. They must be elected by the provincial legislature (similar to the way that US senators were chosen before the 1920s). This measure does require significant amendment of the laws in China. These three measures are interconnected and intertwined. No single measure will work unless the other two are in place and enforceable. The first two of the three measures are already stipulated in the law but not even remotely enforced. The real adoption of these measures will have no Western writing on the wall and does not require the CCP to allow other political parties to compete on the same level playing field for now. In other words, these measures are not designed to undermine the supremacy of the CCP, despite their having not been tolerated by the CCP and being perceived by many CCP leaders as potential harbingers of chaos and even civil war. The adoption of these three measures will not necessarily mean China meets the benchmarks of a real and vibrant democracy, but they would make a meaningful beginning. It is a process that is not drastic and unlikely to trigger radical political activism . These measures are a touchstone as to whether the CCP is taking political reform into serious consideration . They are also a countermeasure against the most powerful and persuasive excuse against democratisation: ordinary Chinese people are not ready to engage in democracy and political stability is paramount. I am hopeful Wen Jiabao and Wu Bangguo can reach a compromise on this issue with full backing from Hu Jintao. They only have 17 months of their term left to do so. Yawei Liu is Director of The Carter Center’s China Program and is the Founder and Editor of China Elections and Governance (www.chinaelections.org and www.chinaelectionsblog.net). Malaysia’s democratic deficit Reimagining Chinese Indonesians in democratic Indonesia Malaysia’s democratic deficit

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Author: Yawei Liu, Carter Centre

No Chinese Communist leader has ever said democracy is a bad thing.

When asked how the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) would avoid the notorious dynastic cycles of the previous emperors, Mao Zedong proudly said that the CCP had found a miraculous mechanism to keep them away: democracy. Deng Xiaoping repeatedly said that the ultimate reform was political reform. Without political reform, there is no way to sustain economic reform. Deng even predicted that China might adopt national presidential elections by 2050 after she overcame gaps in wealth and education between urban dwellers and rural residents. Both Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao at the past four CCP national congresses touted ‘four democracies’ at the grassroots level, namely democratic elections, democratic decision-making, democratic management and democratic supervision in official and public affairs.

Nevertheless, it is Premier Wen Jiabao who has in recent years turned the vague rhetoric of adopting democracy into a real action plan-cum-timetable. In Wen’s design, China’s democracy is made up of three components: first, direct elections moving up from villages to towns and to counties; second, restraining government power via independent judiciary oversight; and third, enhancing government accountability through a freer and more autonomous media. Wen’s repeated calls for meaningful political reform have not only fallen on deaf ears within the top echelons of the CCP, but also disillusioned the broad masses, as the latter have not seen any tangible action being taken. Some even label Wen as the best actor in China’s theatre of politics.

If people see Wen as merely being a good actor, many CCP movers and shakers may perceive his utterance on initiating political transformation as an unfathomable threat to the political consensus and a devious plot to influence power transition at the upcoming 18th CCP National Congress. In response Wu Bangguo, who is ranked second in the CCP Politburo Standing Committee, seems to have attempted to put the brakes on Wen’s runaway train by making a solemn ‘six nos’ declaration at the recent annual session of the National People’s Congress in Beijing. The now infamous ‘six nos’ are no multiple party system, no diversity in ideology, no checks and balances, no two-chamber parliament, no federal republic and no privatisation.

If Wu indeed wanted to shut down Wen’s vision for political reform, he is missing the target by a wide margin because none of the ‘six nos’ are remotely applicable to Wen’s proposals. In fact, if the CCP does have political reform (or democracy with Chinese characteristics) in mind, its engineers do not need to ‘westernise’ anything for now. Although these reform measures do eventually require amending the Constitution and relevant laws, most of them will fall into China’s current legal framework.

In order to implement democratic reform, first, direct village election measures need to be put in place for the election of deputies to town and country people’s congresses. China has about four million elected people’s deputies at five levels (town, county, municipal, provincial and national) and the elections at the town and county levels are direct. Adopting village elections measures at these two levels means free nomination of candidates, unrestricted campaigns by candidates, multiple candidates and secret ballots. These elected local people’s deputies will not only elect township and county magistrates but also deputies at the next higher level. Competitive, open and free elections at these two levels will change the dynamics of China’s politics overnight. Yes, CCP candidates may dominate the process as the system now exists, but it does provide an avenue for non-party candidates to compete free of hassle by the CCP apparatus. This first step needs no major amendments to the Constitution and laws.

Second, is to allow people’s congress deputies at all levels (during the trial period, it may first be limited to the bottom two levels) to use their authority to the fullest extent, as stipulated by the law. Their authority includes electing executive leadership of the government at the same level, approving budgets and expenditure, auditing reports by the judicial and law enforcement branches of government, and voting on all major decisions of government. This requires no change whatsoever to existing law but certainly requires the CCP to cede lower level control and stop manipulating or interfering in the proceedings of people’s congresses. This seems to be the biggest hurdle for an empowered and accountable people’s congress system to take shape.

Third, is for the people’s deputies to be responsible, responsive and respectful to the people who elect them. Their number should be significantly reduced and their representation determined by geography. For example, a Chinese scholar suggests that the NPC cannot function unless its number is cut from the current number of about 3,000 to about 800. No one of the 800 should come from the central government or the military but strictly from the provinces. They must be elected by the provincial legislature (similar to the way that US senators were chosen before the 1920s). This measure does require significant amendment of the laws in China.

These three measures are interconnected and intertwined. No single measure will work unless the other two are in place and enforceable. The first two of the three measures are already stipulated in the law but not even remotely enforced. The real adoption of these measures will have no Western writing on the wall and does not require the CCP to allow other political parties to compete on the same level playing field for now. In other words, these measures are not designed to undermine the supremacy of the CCP, despite their having not been tolerated by the CCP and being perceived by many CCP leaders as potential harbingers of chaos and even civil war.

The adoption of these three measures will not necessarily mean China meets the benchmarks of a real and vibrant democracy, but they would make a meaningful beginning. It is a process that is not drastic and unlikely to trigger radical political activism. These measures are a touchstone as to whether the CCP is taking political reform into serious consideration. They are also a countermeasure against the most powerful and persuasive excuse against democratisation: ordinary Chinese people are not ready to engage in democracy and political stability is paramount. I am hopeful Wen Jiabao and Wu Bangguo can reach a compromise on this issue with full backing from Hu Jintao. They only have 17 months of their term left to do so.

Yawei Liu is Director of The Carter Center’s China Program and is the Founder and Editor of China Elections and Governance (www.chinaelections.org and www.chinaelectionsblog.net).

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How will China become ‘democratic’?

Asean

ASEAN weathering the COVID-19 typhoon

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Vietnam's Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc addresses a special video conference with leaders of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), on the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), in Hanoi 14 April, 2020 (Photo:Reuters/Manan Vatsyayana).

Author: Sandra Seno-Alday, Sydney University

The roughly 20 typhoons that hit Southeast Asia each year pale in comparison to the impact on the region of COVID-19 — a storm of a very different sort striking not just Southeast Asia but the world.

 

Just how badly is the COVID-19 typhoon thrashing the region? And what might the post-crisis recovery and reconstruction look like? To answer these questions, it is necessary to investigate the strengths and vulnerabilities of Southeast Asia’s pre-COVID-19 economic infrastructure.

Understanding the structure of the region’s economic house requires going back to 1967, when Southeast Asian countries decided to pledge friendship to one another under the ASEAN framework. While other integrated regions such as NAFTA and the European Union have aggressively broken down trade barriers and significantly boosted intra-regional trade, ASEAN regional economic integration has chugged along slower.

Southeast Asian countries have not viewed trade between each other as a top priority. The trade agreements in the region have been forged around suggestions for ASEAN countries to lower tariffs on intra-regional trade to within a certain range and across limited industries. This has lowered but not eliminated barriers to intra-regional trade. Consequently, a relatively significant share of Southeast Asian trade is with countries outside the region. This active extra-regional engagement has resulted in ASEAN countries’ successful integration into global value chain networks.

A historically outward-facing region, in 2010 around 75 per cent of Southeast Asian commodity imports and exports came from countries outside of ASEAN. This share of extra-regional trade nudged closer to 80 per cent in 2018. This indicates that ASEAN’s global value chain network embeddedness has deepened over time.

Around 40 per cent of ASEAN’s extra-regional trade is with the rest of Asia. From 2010 to 2018 Southeast Asian countries forged major trade relationships with four Asian countries: China, Japan, South Korea and India. Outside Asia, the United States is the region’s major trading partner. ASEAN’s trade focus on Asia’s largest markets is not surprising. Countries tend to establish trade relationships with large, geographically close, and culturally similar markets.

Fostering deep relationships with a few large markets, however, is a double-edged sword. While it has allowed ASEAN to benefit from integration in global value chains, it has also resulted in increased vulnerability to the shocks affecting its network connections.

ASEAN’s participation in global value chains has allowed it to transition from a net regional importer in 1990 to a net regional exporter in 2018. But the region’s deep embeddedness in a small and tightly-coupled network cluster of extra-regional global value chain partners has exposed it to disruption to any and all of its external partners. By contrast, ASEAN’s intra-regional trade network structure is much more loosely-coupled: a consequence of persistent intra-regional trade barriers and thus lower intra-regional trade intensity.

In the pre-COVID-19 period, ASEAN built for itself an economic house held up by just five extra-regional markets, while doing less to expand and diversify its intra-regional trade network. The data shows that ASEAN trade became increasingly concentrated in these few external markets between 2010 and 2018.

This dependence on a handful of markets does not bode well for risk and crisis management. All of the region’s major trading partners have been significantly affected by COVID-19 and this in turn is blowing the ASEAN economic house down.

What are the ways forward? The immediate task at hand is to get a better picture of the region’s position in global value chain networks and to get on top of managing its network risk exposure. Already there are red flags around the region’s food security arising from its position in food value chains. It is critical to look for ways to introduce flexibility into existing supply chains for greater agility in responding to crises.

It is also an opportune time for ASEAN to harness the technology transfer gains of global value chain participation and invest in innovation-driven diversification of products and markets. The region’s embeddedness in global value chain networks certainly places it in a strong position to readily access large export markets not just in Asia but also Europe and the Americas.

Over the longer term, ASEAN is faced with the question of whether it should seriously look…

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Markets

Tiger Trade Launches SGX Trading, Meeting Demand from Asian Investors

Access to the Singapore Exchange (SGX) adds to Tiger Brokers’ current menu of stock exchanges, such as the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and the Nasdaq Stock Market (NASDAQ), the world’s two largest stock exchanges, as well as the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX).

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SINGAPORE (ACN Newswire) – Tiger Trade, a one-stop mobile and online trading application by Tiger Brokers, has launched access to the Singapore Exchange (SGX).

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Asean

Can Asia maintain growth with an ever ageing population ?

To boost productivity in the future, Asian governments will have to implement well-targeted structural reforms today.

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Asia has been the world champion of economic growth for decades, and this year will be no exception. According to the latest International Monetary Fund Regional Economic Outlook(REO), the Asia-Pacific region’s GDP is projected to increase by 5.5% in 2017 and 5.4% in 2018. (more…)

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