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Trade

Working around the Article XXI loophole

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East Asia Forum

Author: Mark Tokola, Korea Economic Institute of America

On 16 August 2023, the World Trade Organization (WTO) ruled that China had wrongfully imposed duties on US imports. Despite this, China continues to impose its illegal duties, pending its appeal to the defunct Appellate Body. China is exploiting a situation that the United States created.

The security exception, Article XXI, was included in the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) to allow for otherwise illegal measures taken purely for security reasons. The Obama, Trump and Biden administrations have all made clear that the US position is that a country’s use of Article XXI cannot be challenged in the WTO. Russia supports the US view, but China, the European Union and South Korea are among those who argue that the WTO has a right to investigate whether a country has made a plausible link between its use of Article XXI and an actual security interest.

The specific wording of Article XXI implies that there are standards to judge whether it has been used appropriately. It states that countries can take any action necessary for the protection of ‘essential security interests’, which among other things, includes actions taken during a time of war or emergency in international relations. If the protection of security interests had been intended to be a blanket exception, it would have been worded more simply.

As the GATT and WTO members understood that a snowballing use of Article XXI would endanger the world trading system, for 70 years they exercised self-restraint. The United States only invoked Article XXI to embargo Cuba in 1961 and Nicaragua in 1985, and the European Union used it to restrict imports from Argentina in 1982 and Yugoslavia in 1992.

Article XXI only surfaced again in 2014, when Russia invoked Article XXI(b)(iii) as taken in time of war or other emergency in international relations after its invasion of Crimea to justify its ban on the transit of goods from Ukraine destined for Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan through Russia.

In 2018, the Trump administration invoked Article XXI(b)(ii) — which allows states to protect access to their materials by restricting ‘the traffic in arms, ammunition and implements of war […] carried on directly or indirectly for the purpose of supplying a military establishment’ — to impose import restrictions on steel and aluminium. This was pure protectionism, as only a small portion of domestically produced or imported steel or aluminium is used for military purposes.

We may never learn how the Appellate Body would interpret US and Russian use of Article XXI, because since 11 December 2019, the United States government has blocked all appointments to the Appellate Body. The Appellate Body has not had enough members to hear a case for almost five years.

As international trade is increasingly entwined with the concept of economic security, allowing the security exception to be self-judging could be devastating to global trade. As the United States is almost certainly not going to change its opinion on the justiciability of Article XXI, one crude workaround might be for countries to retaliate by invoking their own self-judging right to resort to Article XXI. But it is easy to imagine that becoming a downward spiral toward protectionism under the guise of security.

China tried a different approach. In 2023, China imposed duties on several US products to offset US restrictions on trade in steel and aluminium. China did not invoke Article XXI but instead argued that the US had enacted a de facto safeguard measure cloaked as a security exception, which permitted China to right the balance by using Article XIX, regarding ‘safeguards’.

Another solution might be for the WTO to clarify its rules to make them conform with US and Russian opinion that the security exception is self-judging, while at the same time implementing new or existing processes to allow for counterbalancing measures. But this would concede that use of national security exceptions is beyond the WTO’s purview, despite the plain wording of Article XXI.

A more palatable approach might be for the United States, the European Union, South Korea, Japan and Australia to meet outside of the WTO to agree on trade rules, including the use of Article XXI. The United States would be unlikely to agree to any mechanism that could rule against security exceptions, but it might agree to an arbitration system to rebalance trade among economic allies. Short of that, even a requirement to explain and consult among like-minded countries might…

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Trade

Fixing fragmentation in the settlement of international trade disputes

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Fragmentation in global trade due to the lack of development in multilateral trade rules at the WTO has led to an increase in FTAs. The Appellate Body impasse has further exacerbated fragmentation, requiring a multilateral approach for reform.

Fragmentation in Global Trade

Fragmentation in global trade is not new. With the slow development of multilateral trade rules at the World Trade Organization (WTO), governments have turned to free trade agreements (FTAs). As of 2023, almost 600 bilateral and regional trade agreements have been notified to the WTO, leading to growing fragmentation in trade rules, business activities, and international relations. But until recently, trade dispute settlements have predominantly remained within the WTO.

Challenges with WTO Dispute Settlement

The demise of the Appellate Body increased fragmentation in both the interpretation and enforcement of trade law. A small number of WTO Members created the Multi-Party Interim Appeal Arbitration Arrangement (MPIA) as a temporary solution, but in its current form, it cannot properly address fragmentation. Since its creation in 2020, the MPIA has only attracted 26 parties, and its rulings have not been consistent with previous decisions made by the Appellate Body, rendering WTO case law increasingly fragmented.

The Path Forward for Global Trade

Maintaining the integrity and predictability of the global trading system while reducing fragmentation requires restoring the WTO’s authority. At the 12th WTO Ministerial Conference in 2022, governments agreed to re-establish a functional dispute settlement system by 2024. Reaching a consensus will be difficult, and negotiations will take time. A critical mass-based, open plurilateral approach provides a viable alternative way to reform the appellate mechanism, as WTO Members are committed to reforming the dispute settlement system.

Source : Fixing fragmentation in the settlement of international trade disputes

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Trade

WTO ministerial trading in low expectations and high stakes

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The WTO’s 13th Ministerial Conference is set to focus on e-commerce transparency, investment facilitation, and admitting new members. However, progress may be hindered by disputes, especially regarding fisheries subsidies.

The World Trade Organisation’s 13th Ministerial Conference

The World Trade Organisation’s (WTO) 13th Ministerial Conference is set to take place in Abu Dhabi on 26–29 February, with expectations of deals on electronic commerce transparency, investment facilitation for development, and the admission of Timor Leste and the Comoros as WTO members. Despite these positive developments, the expectations are relatively modest compared to promises made at the 12th Ministerial Conference, which included addressing fisheries subsidies and restoring a fully functioning dispute settlement mechanism by 2024.

Challenges in Dispute Settlement and Agricultural Trade Reform

However, challenges remain, especially in the deadlock of dispute settlement since December 2019 due to a US veto on the appointment of Appellate Body judges. Progress in restoring the dispute settlement mechanism has stalled, and discord continues regarding India’s grain stockholding policy as a potential illegal subsidy. Restoring a fully functioning dispute settlement mechanism hinges on addressing US concerns about perceived bias against trade remedies in relation to China’s state subsidies.

Geopolitical Tensions and the Future of Trade Relations

The likelihood of reaching agreements amid geopolitical tensions between Western democracies and China appears slim, with issues surrounding subsidies and global supply chains causing rifts in trade relations. As nations focus on self-reliance within the global value chain, opportunities for trading face obstacles. Advocacy for open markets and addressing protectionist sentiments remains crucial for fostering resilience to external shocks and promoting economic growth.

Source : WTO ministerial trading in low expectations and high stakes

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Trade

Getting Vietnam’s economic growth back on track

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Vietnam’s economy grew 8% in 2022 but slowed in 2023 due to falling exports and delays in public investments. The economy’s future depends on structural reforms and reducing dependency on foreign investment.

Vietnam’s Economic Roller Coaster

After emerging from COVID-19 with an 8 per cent annual growth rate, Vietnam’s economy took a downturn in the first half of 2023. The drop was attributed to falling exports due to monetary tightening in developed countries and a slow post-pandemic recovery in China.

Trade Performance and Monetary Policy

Exports were down 12 per cent on-year, with the industrial production index showing negative growth early in 2023 but ended with an increase of approximately 1 per cent for the year. Monetary policy was loosened throughout the year, with bank credit growing by 13.5 per cent overall and 1.7 per cent in the last 20 days of 2023.

Challenges and Prospects

Vietnam’s economy suffered from delayed public investments, electricity shortages, and a declining domestic private sector in the last two years. Looking ahead to 2024, economic growth is expected to be in the range of 5.5–6 per cent, but the country faces uncertainties due to geopolitical tensions and global economic conditions.

Source : Getting Vietnam’s economic growth back on track

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