Russia and China both want influence over Central Asia. Could it rupture their friendship?

As Putin seeks to strengthen territorial gains in Ukraine and secure influence in Central Asia, trade with Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan has surged amid Western sanctions, while China’s presence grows.

As he looks to solidify his territorial gains in Ukraine in a potential ceasefire deal, Russian President Vladimir Putin has one eye trained on Russia’s southern border – and boosting Russian influence in Central Asia.

Following his 2024 re-election, Putin made Uzbekistan his third foreign visit after China and Belarus. The visit signalled the region’s continued importance to Moscow.

In response to Western sanctions on Moscow over the Ukraine war, trade and investment between Russia and Central Asian countries have grown significantly.

Russia’s Lukoil and Gazprom are now the dominant foreign players in Uzbekistan’s energy fields. In Kazakhstan, Moscow controls a quarter of the country’s uranium production.

But as Russia tries to reaffirm its role in the region, China has also been quietly expanding its influence.

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