China
China’s Import-Export Trends 2024-25: A Thorough Analysis of the Initial 10 Months
China’s foreign trade statistics for October 2024 show exports surged 11.2% from last year, significantly boosting the trade surplus to RMB 679.1 billion. However, weak domestic demand led to a 1.2% month-on-month decline in imports and exports.
The recently released foreign trade statistics for October and the first 10 months of 2024 reveal significant trends in China’s import-export activities for 2024-25. We will explore these trends by examining the trading structure, methods, partners, products, and sectors involved.
On November 7, 2024, the General Administration of Customs (GAC) released statistics showing that China’s goods exports in October far exceeded expectations. Exports increased by 11.2 percent year-on-year in RMB terms and 12.7 percent in dollar terms, marking the largest expansion since March 2023.
In the first 10 months of 2024, the total value of China’s goods trade reached 36.02 trillion RMB (US$5.05 trillion), reflecting a 5.2 percent year-on-year increase. This includes 20.8 trillion RMB (US$2.89 trillion) in exports (up 6.7 percent) and 15.22 trillion RMB (US$2.09 trillion) in imports (up 3.2 percent). Notably, the trade surplus expanded by 17.6 percent, reaching 5.58 trillion RMB (US$770 billion).
In October, China’s total import and export value reached RMB 3.7 trillion (US$520 billion), marking a 4.6 percent year-on-year increase, which is nearly 4 percentage points higher than the growth rate in September. Exports amounted to RMB 2.19 trillion (US$305 billion), reflecting an 11.2 percent increase, while imports totaled RMB 1.51 trillion (US$210 billion), a 3.7 percent decline. The trade surplus for October was RMB 679.1 billion (US$95 billion).
The double-digit growth in exports for October can be attributed to various factors:
The strong performance in export growth and trade surplus in October indicates that foreign trade continues to contribute significantly to economic growth. Coupled with unexpected counter-cyclical policy measures domestically, this will further enhance market confidence in achieving annual economic targets.
However, it is important to note that imports and exports saw a month-on-month decline of 1.2 percent in October. This decline is primarily due to weak domestic demand, cautious import decisions by market participants, low prices for bulk commodities, and the impact of a higher comparison base from last year.
| This article was first published by China Briefing , which is produced by Dezan Shira & Associates. The firm assists foreign investors throughout Asia from offices across the world, including in in China, Hong Kong, Vietnam, Singapore, and India . Readers may write to info@dezshira.com for more support. |
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