China
10 years on, Belt and Road goals shift with China’s ambitions
A decade ago, amid much fanfare, Chinese President Xi Jinping launched the Belt and Road program, a grand plan to build a global infrastructure and supply chains that would connect China to the rest of the world in a modern and many-pronged Silk Road – and hypothetically benefit everyone involved.
Next month, Beijing will host the third Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation, with confirmed attendance from a number of world leaders and representatives from 90 countries, state news agency Xinhua reported.
What started out as a way to boost trade ties, secure energy supplies and invest in global infrastructure has now branched out to include digital, health, cultural, security, and sustainable development projects, some of which have been dogged by labor issues and cost overruns.
Playing off the motif of the ancient trade route that linked China to the Mideast and Europe, Its components are many, and include the Digital Silk Road, the Silk Road on Ice, the Healthy Silk Road, the Space Silk Road, and the Green Silk Road.
In fact, today almost all of China’s overseas cooperation projects could be classified as part of the Belt and Road Initiative. Xi has termed it the “project of the century.”
Critics of how China uses its rising power are less sanguine. The United States has accused China of “debt diplomacy” – trapping nations with financial liabilities for major infrastructure projects they can ill-afford and which might be leveraged for Beijing’s political benefit.
$1 Trillion in investment
The forum comes four years after the last Belt and Road summit in 2019, and is part of China’s bid to show off the program’s achievements to the international community after a decade in operation.
The program has sparked some US$1 trillion of investments, foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin told a recent news conference. Around 83% of China’s diplomatic allies and nearly 80% of the 193 UN member states have gotten involved.
Over the past decade, China has signed more than 200 cooperation agreements with 152 countries and 32 international organizations under the plan.
China now spends twice as much on international development finance as the United States, according to the U.S.-based organization AidData, with most of that increase occurring during the past 10 years.
There has been a political benefit as well: Some of those deals have led partner countries to publicly support Chinese Communist Party propaganda on Xinjiang, where China has persecuted 11 million Uyghurs and other Turkic minorities and sought to erase their culture.
What’s the goal?
Researchers have been collating vast amounts of data and official sources to try to answer questions about the purpose of the Belt and Road — does it fulfill China’s economic, diplomatic or strategic ambitions?
The answer is all of the above.
It facilitates the offshoring of China’s production capacity, offers a powerful tool for the country’s diplomats and is also a key plank in Beijing’s geostrategic framework.
It expands China’s global influence and promotes Xi Jinping’s ultimate vision of creating a China-centered global order.
And with the decoupling of China’s flagging economy from that of the United States, and China’s exclusion from key technology supply chains, China appears to need the Belt and Road Initiative more than ever.
Radio Free Asia is marking the 10th anniversary of the Belt and Road with a series of features about how the plan has evolved over the past decade, and its impact on the countries and people it touches.
For example, China has been dialing back investment in overseas infrastructure projects, while boosting it in the digital sector.
The country’s homegrown global navigation satellite system Beidou now spans 165 capital cities around the world, providing broader coverage than GPS created by the United States.
Huawei, which has been widely boycotted by governments in Europe and the United States, built 70% of the 4G networks currently in operation in Africa.
Exporting surveillance platforms
Meanwhile, China has continued to export surveillance platforms for policing and domestic security to at least 80 countries around the world.
The technology sector has become a hotly contested battleground in China’s global strategic plan, which includes exporting its brand of digital authoritarianism, while competing for a share of future markets.
Globally, 2.9 billion people still lack access to the internet, and China has set its sights on the digital divide, hoping to gain the support of more countries by gaining a foothold in emerging markets, where it can position itself as the digital standard-setter.
Indonesia – the fourth most populous nation on the planet – is one of those markets. Nearly half of its 270 million people are under the age of 30, making it uncharted territory for the digital economy.
Yet Chinese telecoms giant Huawei is already charting that territory, offering cheaply built infrastructure, personnel training and government publicity services.
Radio Free Asia has been examining some of the concerns and potential threats posed by China’s monopolistic practices in the region.
China’s digital presence can also be felt across a number of large-scale regional infrastructure projects.
The China-Laos high-speed railway doesn’t just run on Chinese-gauge tracks with Chinese-made locomotives and rolling stock: it also uses Chinese technology in its ID-card verification system and security checkpoints.
Resistance
Some countries and leaders have tried to resist the “China model,” including former Micronesian President David Panuelo.
In an open letter published two months before he left office in May 2023, Panuelo said China had used a combination of…
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China
The Latest Updates on China’s Visa-Free Policies
China has fully reopened its borders, allowing international tourism to recover. Visa-free travel policies are reinstated, and visa fees for foreign travelers will be reduced by 25% from December 11, 2023, to December 31, 2024. China and Singapore are also pursuing a 30-day visa-free travel arrangement.
China has fully reopened its borders, promising recovery of international tourism and travel. Many of the visa-free travel policies that were in place prior to the pandemic have therefore come back into effect, enabling people from a wide range of countries to visit
UPDATE (December 8, 2023): On December 8, 2023, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs released the Notice on Temporary Reduction of Fees for Applying Visa to China. According to this notice, during the period from December 11, 2023, to December 31, 2024, China shall cut visa fees by 25 percent across the board for foreign travelers. For more details, please consult with your local Chinese embassy or consulate.
UPDATE (December 7, 2023): China and Singapore are seeking to establish a mutual 30-day visa-free travel arrangement to boost people exchanges between the two countries, according to Reuters. At the time of writing, no further details have been released regarding the timeline or the eligibility, requirement, and application procedures of this new arrangement. Click here for more information regarding this mutual 30-day visa-free travel between China and Singapore.
This article is republished from China Briefing. Read the rest of the original article.
China Briefing is written and produced by Dezan Shira & Associates. The practice assists foreign investors into China and has done since 1992 through offices in Beijing, Tianjin, Dalian, Qingdao, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Ningbo, Suzhou, Guangzhou, Dongguan, Zhongshan, Shenzhen, and Hong Kong. Please contact the firm for assistance in China at china@dezshira.com.
China
Analysis of UK Investments in China for 2023: Evaluating Deals, Values, M&A, and Investments
British Government underwent reshuffle with pro-China David Cameron as Foreign Minister. Possible mild rapprochement with Beijing. Analysis of UK investments in China this year reveals potential trends. Report includes unique Q1-Q3 data and predicts outlook for 2024.
By Chris Devonshire-Ellis & Henry Tillman
With a reshuffle in the British Government and ex-Prime Minister – and generally pro-China politician David Cameron now as the UK’s Foreign Minister, there have been early signs of a potential mild rapprochement in the British governments overall attitude towards Beijing.
But before people get carried away, we can look at what investments the UK has made into China this year – as investments made while anti-China politics have tended to be the norm are typically indicative of stronger trends. In this report I include unique data that has not previously been made public, and examine the Q1-Q3 investment trends to see what may lie ahead for 2024.
This article is republished from China Briefing. Read the rest of the original article.
China Briefing is written and produced by Dezan Shira & Associates. The practice assists foreign investors into China and has done since 1992 through offices in Beijing, Tianjin, Dalian, Qingdao, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Ningbo, Suzhou, Guangzhou, Dongguan, Zhongshan, Shenzhen, and Hong Kong. Please contact the firm for assistance in China at china@dezshira.com.
China
Ratings agency cuts China’s credit outlook
Financially strapped local governments and state-owned enterprises pose a risk to China’s future economic growth, the ratings agency Moody’s said today in a report downgrading the country’s credit outlook from stable to negative.
Growing evidence suggests that the central government will be required to shore up the debt-laden entities, creating “broad downside risks to China’s fiscal, economic and institutional strength,” Moody’s said.
Local governments are thought to have accumulated trillions of dollars of debt due to spending during the COVID pandemic and a loss of income due to a troubled real estate market.
Despite the challenges, Moody’s maintained China’s overall credit rating of A1, which it describes as low-risk though not the safest category of investment. Moody’s said the rating reflects its belief in the country’s “financial and institutional resources to manage the transition in an orderly fashion.”
“Its economy’s vast size and robust, albeit slowing, potential growth rate, support its high shock absorption capacity,” Moody’s said.
Even so, the outlook downgrade signals some concern about China’s future creditworthiness.
In a statement, China’s Foreign Ministry said it was disappointed in the ratings change and that Moody’s concerns about its growth and financial stability were “unnecessary.”
“In recent years, through the continuous efforts of relevant departments and local governments, China has established a system to prevent and resolve the risks of local government debt,” the ministry said. “The trend of disorderly and illegal borrowing by local governments has been initially curbed, and positive results have been achieved in the disposal of local government debt.”
Moody’s projects China’s annual growth rate will be 4% in 2024 and 2025 but average 3.8% from 2026 to 2030, at which time it might drop again to 3.5%.
Derek Scissors, the chief economist at China Beige Book, a firm that analyzes China’s economy for investors, said in an email that the downgrade was to be expected.
“It’s a recognition of long-standing conditions, not a new development,” said Scissors, who is also a senior fellow at the free-market think tank American Enterprise Institute in Washington. “I think growth will be faster than Moody’s thinks in 2024 and decelerate more than they think after that.”
Fees from local land sales account for nearly 40% of the revenue to local and regional governments. But China’s real-estate sector has been hit hard by overbuilding. One giant, Evergrande, defaulted under massive debt last year, triggering a broader real estate crisis.
Moody’s report said that “the downsizing of the property sector is a major structural shift in China’s growth drivers which is ongoing and could represent a more significant drag to China’s overall economic growth rate than currently assessed.”
Edited by Tara McKelvey
Read the rest of this article here >>> Ratings agency cuts China’s credit outlook
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- Analysis of UK Investments in China for 2023: Evaluating Deals, Values, M&A, and Investments
- Ratings agency cuts China’s credit outlook
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