The recent US–Philippines Balikatan military exercise was a response to China’s increased aggression in the South China Sea. China had been targeting both Filipino military personnel and small-scale fisherfolk in the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone. China’s provocations had become indiscriminate and bolder, making it difficult to ignore the situation. The 38th Balikatan exercise in April 2023 was the biggest in the three-decade history of their joint combat drills. However, it received a swift warning from Beijing who called for the cessation of such activities, stating that they could aggravate tension in the area.
The United States and the Philippines conducted the third 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue on 11 April 2023 in Washington, where they issued clear-cut statements about the South China Sea conflict. The joint statement condemned China’s illegal activities and called for compliance with the 2016 Permanent Court of Arbitration decision, which rejected Beijing’s claims on territory and maritime rights based on its ‘nine-dash line’. The statement also reiterated the importance of maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.
Under President Ferdinand Marcos Jr, the Philippines has turned its back on the China appeasement strategy that was present under his predecessor. Former president Rodrigo Duterte moved the Philippines closer to China, which gave ample space for them to construct a mutually beneficial relationship. However, Beijing continued to conduct aggressive actions in the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone, highlighting a clear mismatch between their words and actions. As a dominant state, China has assumed that vulnerable states would allow for its aggressive actions. However, the Philippines, like many ASEAN countries, is a post-colonial state that is sensitive to the superpowers’ raw ambition to dominate and bend them against their will.
The Philippines’ ability to defend itself against China is limited, which is why it has forged closer ties with the United States. The Philippines is also crucial to US interests as a treaty ally, making it important to maintain peace and stability in the region.
Authors: Jenny Balboa, Tokyo University of Foreign Studies and Hosei University, and Shinji Takenaka, Japan Center for Economic Research
Despite careful words from Philippine officials, the latest US–Philippines Balikatan military exercise was a response to China’s increasing assertiveness in the South China Sea. China’s provocations had become indiscriminate — targeting both uniformed Filipino personnel and small-scale fisherfolk in the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone. China’s aggressive actions had become bolder, making it more difficult to turn a blind eye to the situation.
The 38th Balikatan exercise in April 2023 was the biggest in the three-decade history of their joint combat drills. The exercise did not sit well with Beijing, which immediately released a warning that such activities can aggravate tension in the area. The Chinese ambassador to the Philippines issued an upfront reproach to the Philippine government about China’s displeasure of such ‘provocative’ activities.
The United States and the Philippines promptly conducted the third 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue on 11 April 2023 in Washington. Top US–Philippines foreign affairs and defence officials issued clear-cut statements about the South China Sea conflict. The joint statement condemned China’s illegal activities and called for compliance with the 2016 Permanent Court of Arbitration decision, which rejected Beijing’s claims on territory and maritime rights based on its ‘nine-dash line’. The statement also reiterated the importance of maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.
Under President Ferdinand Marcos Jr, the Philippines seems to have turned its back on the China appeasement strategy that characterised the foreign policy of his predecessor. Former president Rodrigo Duterte moved the Philippines closer to China by downplaying the Arbitral Tribunal award favouring the Philippines. In retrospect, Duterte provided China with ample space to construct a closer and mutually beneficial relationship with the Philippines.
Yet Beijing continued to conduct aggressive actions in the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone targeting the Philippine military and fisherfolk who are more disadvantaged. There was a clear mismatch between Beijing’s words and actions. It did not help that China reneged on many of its economic commitments to Manila. Beijing failed to fulfil its pledged investment in several big-ticket infrastructure projects.
As a dominant state that wields considerable influence in the economy and security of many countries, China seems to have assumed that vulnerable states, such as the Philippines, would tolerate its belligerent actions. China had lost sight that the Philippines — like many ASEAN countries — is a post-colonial state, sensitive to the raw ambition of superpowers to dominate and bend them against their will. Beijing overlooked the determination of many domestic actors in these countries to defend their national interest.
The country’s territorial integrity is now under threat from a hegemonic China. Given the Philippine military’s inability to defend the country against a preponderant China, the Philippines moved closer to the United States, which provides the training and capacity to protect its territory.
The Philippines’ is also vital to US interests because it is a treaty ally that…
