China
Rural underemployment threatens China’s growth
Authors: Scott Rozelle, Stanford University and Dorien Emmers, KU Leuven
According to World Bank data, only a handful of economies have risen from middle- to high-income status since 1960, when economic catch-up growth in many developing economies took off. Examples include South Korea, Singapore, Israel and Ireland. Some countries that were high income in 1960 remain so today, such as Denmark and Japan. Others, like Myanmar and North Korea, have stayed poor. Many countries have stayed at middle-income status for decades, seemingly unable to reach high-income status. How does China compare to these other countries stuck at the middle-income level?
One key factor that may account for the disparate development paths of countries is education. According to the OECD, in 2015 the average share of workers — people aged 18–65 — that completed secondary education in countries that graduated to high-income status was 72 per cent when they were still at middle-income status. But in countries that have failed to exit middle-income status the share is much lower — 36 per cent on average.
Having a large supply of educated workers ensures that enough talent exists to meet and drive demand for high value services, thereby sustaining growth. When too many unskilled workers are squeezed out of upgraded industries their wages stagnate, curtailing demand and hampering growth. This eventually leads to serious social problems, such as higher rates of unemployment and increased crime and social unrest.
Education attainment metrics help reveal China’s potential future development and growth trajectory. The share of uneducated workers in China’s labour force is larger than that of virtually all middle-income countries. According to 2010 census data, there are roughly 500 million people in China between the ages of 18 and 65 without a senior high school diploma, which is 74 per cent of the labour force. This makes China the least educated middle-income country in the world.
A large population of uneducated workers was not a problem when China moved from low- to middle-income status. Unskilled wages were low and there was growth in low-cost manufacturing and construction. But China’s growth model is changing as it becomes wealthier. Unskilled wages are much higher but the lure of cheaper labour elsewhere and China’s massive push to automate is rendering low-skilled workers redundant. Construction jobs have tapered off as investment in infrastructure cools. These factors suggest China’s unskilled workers may be increasingly unemployable as the economy upgrades.
The only destination for China’s unskilled workforce — whether new entrants to the labour force or laid-off workers — is the informal service sector. Data from the 2018 China Statistical Yearbook shows that informal employment is currently the fastest growing sector in China, increasing from 33 per cent in 2004 to 56 per cent in 2017. This rising supply of workers has ushered in stagnating wages for unskilled workers. Meanwhile, strong demand for skilled work means higher wages are going to those with an education. The result may come to resemble Mexico, where solid macroeconomic performance, export success and an accumulation of physical capital has not translated into growth in the formal economy.
Recognising the critical need for secondary education, China’s government has expanded access to high school throughout the country. High school attainment among the youngest cohorts in the labour force is close to 80 per cent. But hundreds of millions of less educated people will remain in the labour force for the next 30 years. The government will face huge challenges trying to either retrain workers or provide a social safety net.
The quality of China’s expanded secondary school education is also uncertain. Almost all low-skilled labour comes from rural areas where school and health systems are under-resourced. Many of China’s new secondary school graduates attended poor quality vocational schools. Systemic shortfalls in early childhood education and health in rural areas may also render many young people unprepared to learn complex skills as they age. A systematic review and meta-analysis found that 45 per cent of children in rural schools across China have delayed cognitive development before they reach the age of five.
Investments during the first years of life in a safe home environment with sufficient learning opportunities, healthy nutrition and responsive caregiving are crucial for healthy child development. But a study published in 2017 on…
China
New Report from Dezan Shira & Associates: China Takes the Lead in Emerging Asia Manufacturing Index 2024
China has been the world’s largest manufacturer for 14 years, producing one-third of global manufacturing output. In the Emerging Asia Manufacturing Index 2024, China ranks highest among eight emerging countries in the region. Challenges for these countries include global demand disparities affecting industrial output and export orders.
Known as the “World’s Factory”, China has held the title of the world’s largest manufacturer for 14 consecutive years, starting from 2010. Its factories churn out approximately one-third of the global manufacturing output, a testament to its industrial might and capacity.
China’s dominant role as the world’s sole manufacturing power is reaffirmed in Dezan Shira & Associates’ Emerging Asia Manufacturing Index 2024 report (“EAMI 2024”), in which China secures the top spot among eight emerging countries in the Asia-Pacific region. The other seven economies are India, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam, and Bangladesh.
The EAMI 2024 aims to assess the potential of these eight economies, navigate the risks, and pinpoint specific factors affecting the manufacturing landscape.
In this article, we delve into the key findings of the EAMI 2024 report and navigate China’s advantages and disadvantages in the manufacturing sector, placing them within the Asia-Pacific comparative context.
Emerging Asia countries face various challenges, especially in the current phase of increased volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity (VUCA). One notable challenge is the impact of global demand disparities on the manufacturing sector, affecting industrial output and export orders.
This article is republished from China Briefing. Read the rest of the original article.
China Briefing is written and produced by Dezan Shira & Associates. The practice assists foreign investors into China and has done since 1992 through offices in Beijing, Tianjin, Dalian, Qingdao, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Ningbo, Suzhou, Guangzhou, Dongguan, Zhongshan, Shenzhen, and Hong Kong. Please contact the firm for assistance in China at china@dezshira.com.
China
Is journalist Vicky Xu preparing to return to China?
Chinese social media influencers have recently claimed that prominent Chinese-born Australian journalist Vicky Xu had posted a message saying she planned to return to China.
There is no evidence for this. The source did not provide evidence to support the claim, and Xu herself later confirmed to AFCL that she has no such plans.
Currently working as an analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, or ASPI, Xu has previously written for both the Australian Broadcasting Corporation, or ABC, and The New York Times.
A Chinese language netizen on X initially claimed on March 31 that the changing geopolitical relations between Sydney and Beijing had caused Xu to become an expendable asset and that she had posted a message expressing a strong desire to return to China. An illegible, blurred photo of the supposed message accompanied the post.
This claim was retweeted by a widely followed influencer on the popular Chinese social media site Weibo one day later, who additionally commented that Xu was a “traitor” who had been abandoned by Australian media.
Following the publication of an ASPI article in 2021 which exposed forced labor conditions in Xinjiang co-authored by Xu, the journalist was labeled “morally bankrupt” and “anti-China” by the Chinese state owned media outlet Global Times and subjected to an influx of threatening messages and digital abuse, eventually forcing her to temporarily close several of her social media accounts.
AFCL found that neither Xu’s active X nor LinkedIn account has any mention of her supposed return to China, and received the following response from Xu herself about the rumor:
“I can confirm that I don’t have plans to go back to China. I think if I do go back I’ll most definitely be detained or imprisoned – so the only career I’ll be having is probably going to be prison labor or something like that, which wouldn’t be ideal.”
Neither a keyword search nor reverse image search on the photo attached to the original X post turned up any text from Xu supporting the netizens’ claims.
Translated by Shen Ke. Edited by Shen Ke and Malcolm Foster.
Asia Fact Check Lab (AFCL) was established to counter disinformation in today’s complex media environment. We publish fact-checks, media-watches and in-depth reports that aim to sharpen and deepen our readers’ understanding of current affairs and public issues. If you like our content, you can also follow us on Facebook, Instagram and X.
Read the rest of this article here >>> Is journalist Vicky Xu preparing to return to China?
China
Guide for Foreign Residents: Obtaining a Certificate of No Criminal Record in China
Foreign residents in China can request a criminal record check from their local security bureau. This certificate may be required for visa applications or job opportunities. Requirements and procedures vary by city. In Shanghai, foreigners must have lived there for 180 days with a valid visa to obtain the certificate.
Foreign residents living in China can request a criminal record check from the local security bureau in the city in which they have lived for at least 180 days. Certificates of no criminal record may be required for people leaving China, or those who are starting a new position in China and applying for a new visa or residence permit. Taking Shanghai as an example, we outline the requirements for obtaining a China criminal record check.
Securing a Certificate of No Criminal Record, often referred to as a criminal record or criminal background check, is a crucial step for various employment opportunities, as well as visa applications and residency permits in China. Nevertheless, navigating the process can be a daunting task due to bureaucratic procedures and language barriers.
In this article, we use Shanghai as an example to explore the essential information and steps required to successfully obtain a no-criminal record check. Requirements and procedures may differ in other cities and counties in China.
Note that foreigners who are not currently living in China and need a criminal record check to apply for a Chinese visa must obtain the certificate from their country of residence or nationality, and have it notarized by a Chinese embassy or consulate in that country.
Foreigners who have a valid residence permit and have lived in Shanghai for at least 180 days can request a criminal record check in the city. This means that the applicant will also need to currently have a work, study, or other form of visa or stay permit that allows them to live in China long-term.
If a foreigner has lived in another part of China and is planning to or has recently moved to Shanghai, they will need to request a criminal record check in the place where they previously spent at least 180 days.
There are two steps to obtaining a criminal record certificate in Shanghai: requesting the criminal record check from the Public Security Bureau (PSB) and getting the resulting Certificate of No Criminal Record notarized by an authorized notary agency.
This article is republished from China Briefing. Read the rest of the original article.
China Briefing is written and produced by Dezan Shira & Associates. The practice assists foreign investors into China and has done since 1992 through offices in Beijing, Tianjin, Dalian, Qingdao, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Ningbo, Suzhou, Guangzhou, Dongguan, Zhongshan, Shenzhen, and Hong Kong. Please contact the firm for assistance in China at china@dezshira.com.
- New Report from Dezan Shira & Associates: China Takes the Lead in Emerging Asia Manufacturing Index 2024
- Is journalist Vicky Xu preparing to return to China?
- Guide for Foreign Residents: Obtaining a Certificate of No Criminal Record in China
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