Authors: Scott Rozelle, Stanford University and Dorien Emmers, KU Leuven
According to World Bank data, only a handful of economies have risen from middle- to high-income status since 1960, when economic catch-up growth in many developing economies took off. Examples include South Korea, Singapore, Israel and Ireland. Some countries that were high income in 1960 remain so today, such as Denmark and Japan. Others, like Myanmar and North Korea, have stayed poor. Many countries have stayed at middle-income status for decades, seemingly unable to reach high-income status. How does China compare to these other countries stuck at the middle-income level?
One key factor that may account for the disparate development paths of countries is education. According to the OECD, in 2015 the average share of workers — people aged 18–65 — that completed secondary education in countries that graduated to high-income status was 72 per cent when they were still at middle-income status. But in countries that have failed to exit middle-income status the share is much lower — 36 per cent on average.
Having a large supply of educated workers ensures that enough talent exists to meet and drive demand for high value services, thereby sustaining growth. When too many unskilled workers are squeezed out of upgraded industries their wages stagnate, curtailing demand and hampering growth. This eventually leads to serious social problems, such as higher rates of unemployment and increased crime and social unrest.
Education attainment metrics help reveal China’s potential future development and growth trajectory. The share of uneducated workers in China’s labour force is larger than that of virtually all middle-income countries. According to 2010 census data, there are roughly 500 million people in China between the ages of 18 and 65 without a senior high school diploma, which is 74 per cent of the labour force. This makes China the least educated middle-income country in the world.
A large population of uneducated workers was not a problem when China moved from low- to middle-income status. Unskilled wages were low and there was growth in low-cost manufacturing and construction. But China’s growth model is changing as it becomes wealthier. Unskilled wages are much higher but the lure of cheaper labour elsewhere and China’s massive push to automate is rendering low-skilled workers redundant. Construction jobs have tapered off as investment in infrastructure cools. These factors suggest China’s unskilled workers may be increasingly unemployable as the economy upgrades.
The only destination for China’s unskilled workforce — whether new entrants to the labour force or laid-off workers — is the informal service sector. Data from the 2018 China Statistical Yearbook shows that informal employment is currently the fastest growing sector in China, increasing from 33 per cent in 2004 to 56 per cent in 2017. This rising supply of workers has ushered in stagnating wages for unskilled workers. Meanwhile, strong demand for skilled work means higher wages are going to those with an education. The result may come to resemble Mexico, where solid macroeconomic performance, export success and an accumulation of physical capital has not translated into growth in the formal economy.
Recognising the critical need for secondary education, China’s government has expanded access to high school throughout the country. High school attainment among the youngest cohorts in the labour force is close to 80 per cent. But hundreds of millions of less educated people will remain in the labour force for the next 30 years. The government will face huge challenges trying to either retrain workers or provide a social safety net.
The quality of China’s expanded secondary school education is also uncertain. Almost all low-skilled labour comes from rural areas where school and health systems are under-resourced. Many of China’s new secondary school graduates attended poor quality vocational schools. Systemic shortfalls in early childhood education and health in rural areas may also render many young people unprepared to learn complex skills as they age. A systematic review and meta-analysis found that 45 per cent of children in rural schools across China have delayed cognitive development before they reach the age of five.
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