China
Hun Manet: Cambodia’s rising son
Author: Charles Dunst, CSIS
Three out of four Cambodians have never known life without Hun Sen. The Prime Minister, currently the longest serving one in the world, came into power during the Vietnamese occupation of Cambodia in 1985. Some 75 per cent of Cambodians were born after that.
But Hun Sen is only 70 or 71 years old and appears to be in reasonably good health. There is no reason to think that he will disappear from the scene any time soon.
There are, however, some indications that he is planning to hand control of Cambodia to his eldest son, Hun Manet, the 44 year old general and commander of the Royal Cambodian Army. This handoff could occur sooner than expected — perhaps following the July 2023 elections in which Hun Sen will almost surely further cement his and the Cambodian People’s Party’s (CPP) grip on power.
Any handoff to Hun Manet will be carefully managed, with Hun Sen likely to remain CPP President. Either way, US and allied officials would be wise to begin considering how this transition will play out, as well as what Cambodia with Hun Manet — and eventually without Hun Sen — will look like.
And while there is no guarantee that Hun Manet’s ascension will go smoothly given Cambodian youth displeasure with his father’s governance, the Hun clan is currently riding a high: people credit Hun Sen for effectively managing the COVID-19 crisis, engineering two successful meetings with US President Joe Biden and maintaining a positive economic trajectory.
The chance that Hun Sen’s handover to Hun Manet will prompt significant public outrage in the short term is thus somewhat low. There will certainly be displeasure in Phnom Penh, where the country’s democratic-minded elite are based. But close to 80 per cent of Cambodians are subsistence farmers more concerned with the provision of public goods than the concept of democracy.
The pliability of Cambodia’s majority could enable a smoother transition to Hun Manet. Yet the princeling remains likely to face some opposition from CPP elites who want power for themselves or their children. When Hun Sen said in December 2022 that Hun Manet would succeed him, leaders like Interior Minister Sar Kheng and Defence Minister Tea Banh hesitated to offer their endorsements.
Hun Sen may have promised CPP leaders that their children would receive plum posts in the next generation of Hun clan leadership. The government has already replaced former agriculture minister Veng Sakhon with Dith Tina, the son of Supreme Court justice and Hun Sen backer Dith Munty.
More generational promotions seem likely after the Hun clan and the CPP sweep to victory in July 2023. These moves could perhaps quell some internal party challenges to Hun Manet, although not all officials will be satisfied. Hun Sen himself may also struggle to step away from the only post he has known for nearly four decades.
Still, some foreign officials are already beginning to hedge their bets by building ties with Hun Manet: the commanders of the Australian and New Zealand armies met with him in October 2022.
But if it is relatively clear that Hun Manet will eventually rule Cambodia, it is unclear how he will do so. There is a long-held notion that Hun Manet — who attended the US Military Academy at West Point, New York University and the United Kingdom’s University of Bristol — will be more friendly to the West and its partners than his father. While that might be somewhat true, it is hard to imagine that Hun Manet will fully reorientate Cambodia in the way the West might like, particularly if Hun Sen remains influential behind the scenes.
The fact remains that if Hun Manet comes to power, he will have done so in a nondemocratic way. This makes it difficult for any US administration to rebuild ties with Phnom Penh, given long-running congressional frustration with the Hun clan. It will be difficult for Hun Manet to extend an olive branch to Washington and its allies, particularly if human rights violations and Chinese developments at the Ream naval base continue.
In the long term, though, Western policymakers will likely find Hun Manet a preferable partner to his father. Hun Manet has no personal or historical disdain for the United States, suggesting a greater potential for partnership than there has been with Hun Sen.
But because Hun Manet lacks the charisma and political legitimacy of his father, he will likely focus on issues that could garner him popular support — like economic development and the provision of public goods. That focus will probably lead…
China
Understanding risks for Australia of China’s slowing economy is Chalmers’ top priority at upcoming Beijing talks
Treasurer Jim Chalmers will visit Beijing for the Australia-China Strategic Economic Dialogue, addressing economic ties, trade issues, and concerns regarding China’s investments in Australia amidst complex bilateral relations.
When Treasurer Jim Chalmers travels to Beijing later this month, he and his counterpart at China’s peak economic agency, the National Development and Reform Commission, won’t be short on important topics to discuss.
Chalmers will be attending the Australia-China Strategic Economic Dialogue, one part of a tripartite agreement secured by the Gillard government in 2013.
The purpose was to hold annual talks at the highest level. The agreement also includes a Leaders’ Dialogue and a Foreign and Strategic Dialogue involving the two countries’ foreign ministers.
Troubled times
The dialogue was last held in September 2017 as the state of official ties began turning south.
It was then formally suspended by Beijing in May 2021 after the Morrison government cancelled the Victorian state government’s Memorandum of Understanding to participate in China’s “belt and road initiative”.
Its resurrection has been slow in coming. The stabilisation in the bilateral relationship under the Albanese government has already seen reciprocal visits involving leaders and foreign ministers. But it was not until June the two sides signed a new memorandum to bring back the dialogue.
The fact Chalmers was able to confirm the trip last Sunday is another sign Canberra and Beijing remain committed to talking. This is despite there being numerous issues over which they are at odds.
Chalmers’ concerns
For the Treasurer, the priority will be getting a first-hand read on China’s struggling economy and the risks this presents to Australia’s own outlook.
When announcing the visit he alluded to one scenario his department was tracking that could see Commonwealth budget revenue take a $4.5 billion hit due to falling prices for key commodity exports, including iron ore and lithium.
Slowing Chinese growth and falling commodity prices are clearly not positives for Australian income, but Chalmers is unlikely to return in a state of panic.
The latest trade figures show China continuing to import Australian iron ore and lithium at record or near record volumes.
Despite slowing growth China is still importing large volumes of Australia’s iron ore.
Dean Lewins/AAP
This points to increasing supply and a lack of demand from other countries being at least as relevant in explaining recent price falls. And both are coming off extraordinary price spikes to now be approaching levels more in line with historical averages.
The impact of Chinese growth on its demand for Australian goods and services has also never been a simple, one-to-one relationship. That remains true today.
A complex relationship
Australian wine exports, for example, are booming after Beijing removed tariffs earlier this year.
China’s customs agencies put the value of imported Australian wine over the past three months at US$252 million, or around A$400 million. This topped the $A357 million sold over the past year to the US, Australia’s second largest customer.
Students from China are also commencing at Australian universities in record numbers, albeit this is likely to fall next year due to restrictions imposed by Canberra, not Beijing.
That China remains a stand-out market is reflected in the large numbers of businesses and politicians attending the Australia-China Business Council’s Canberra Networking Day on Thursday. Trade Minister Don Farrell, Foreign Minister Penny Wong, Shadow Trade Minister Kevin Hogan and Shadow Foreign Minister Simon Birmingham are all slated to give speeches.
Chalmers will also be keen to raise the lingering import ban Beijing imposed in 2020 affecting Australian lobsters. Trade Minister Don Farrell said in June he was “very confident that in the near future” the ban would be lifted. Chalmers’ visit might provide the occasion to announce a final resolution.
China’s concerns
For China, top of the list of concerns will be Australia’s treatment of Chinese investors, particularly in sectors like critical minerals. In the past they have been welcomed but since 2020 there’s been an apparent de-facto ban on further involvement.
A recent survey of Chinese businesses in Australia pointed to generally positive sentiment. Almost 80% said they were optimistic about the outlook of the local business environment. Still, while 72.5% did not consider they had experienced discriminatory treatment, 42.4% felt the enforcement of Australia’s laws and regulations lacked transparency.
It’s not hard to see why. When Chalmers was asked in an interview last Sunday whether or not he wanted “China’s investment in critical minerals processing in Australia”, he did not reply with a “no”. Nor did he provide even a qualified “yes”.
China will likely also be seeking reassurance Canberra will not join Washington and some other capitals usually regarded as geopolitically “like-minded” in putting up tariff barriers on Chinese imports.
This reassurance shouldn’t be difficult for Chalmers to provide. Unlike the US, Australia’s economic relationship with China remains overwhelmingly complementary. Last year, Australia’s exports to China exceeded imports by $110.7 billion.
And low-cost, high-quality imports from China, such as electric vehicles, would be welcomed by the government amid a cost-of-living crisis and the net zero transition.
Late last month, Chris Bowen, Australia’s Minister for Climate and Energy, hosted his Chinese counterpart for the 8th Australia-China Ministerial Dialogue on Climate Change in Sydney.
A bipartisan approach
Trade with China also enjoys bipartisan support. In March, Minister Farrell touted the potential for two-way trade to increase from $300 billion to $400 billion.
Not to be outdone, opposition leader Peter Dutton said in June he’d “love to see the trading relationship [with China] increase two-fold”.
Chalmers was on the money this week in stating Australia’s relationship with China is now “full of complexity and full of opportunity”. His upcoming trip can only help in managing the former and realising the latter.
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
China
Establishing a Family Office in Hong Kong
Hong Kong’s strategic location, strong financial infrastructure, and favorable tax regime make it a prime hub for family offices, with over 2,700 operating by 2023. Its evolution as a wealth management center supports effective family wealth transfer and management strategies.
Hong Kong’s strategic location, robust financial infrastructure, favorable tax regime, and high quality of life make it an ideal destination for establishing family offices, offering comprehensive support for wealth management and long-term family planning.
Hong Kong’s family office sector has seen remarkable growth, with a recent market study revealing that over 2,700 single-family offices were reportedly operating in the city as of December 31, 2023. This significant number highlights Hong Kong’s position as a global hub for family offices, complementing its long-standing reputation as an international center for asset and wealth management.
Historically, Hong Kong’s role in managing family wealth dates back to the late 1800s, and it has evolved into one of Asia’s largest cross-border wealth management centers. The recent surge in family offices can be attributed to the city’s strategic initiatives, including the development of a world-class family office regime. The Hong Kong government’s ongoing efforts to attract more family offices have led to new policies and incentives, reinforcing the city’s status as a premier destination for global family offices.
In this article, we explore the key factors that shape Hong Kong’s family office sector and a outline the steps to establish a family office in Hong Kong.
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A family office is a specialized entity designed to manage the wealth and needs of high-net-worth individuals and families. By consolidating investments and financial management under one roof, a family office provides greater control, transparency, and efficiency. This is particularly crucial as we approach a significant intergenerational wealth transfer, with an estimated US$8 trillion expected to change hands by 2029, according to Credit Suisse.
Family offices vary in structure, typically tailored to the specific needs of the family. Commonly, they involve a holding company or investment vehicles within a trust, centralizing financial operations and bringing dedicated expertise in-house. This setup also offers younger generations a platform to gain experience in investment management and business operations, preparing them to manage family wealth in the future.
| This article was first published by China Briefing , which is produced by Dezan Shira & Associates. The firm assists foreign investors throughout Asia from offices across the world, including in in China, Hong Kong, Vietnam, Singapore, and India . Readers may write to info@dezshira.com for more support. |
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Business
China Stimulates Economic Growth Through New Policies – London Business News | Londonlovesbusiness.com
Chinese officials will report on policies aimed at boosting economic growth, focusing on structural optimization and sustainability post-National Day festivities, addressing challenges like the pandemic and trade tensions.
Key Economic Growth Policies
Senior officials from China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), led by Zheng Shanjie, will report on key economic growth policies this Tuesday. The conference will focus on implementing progressive measures aimed at revitalizing the economy and ensuring sustainable long-term development. Following a festive season, including National Day, authorities emphasize the importance of leveraging this period to invigorate economic activities.
Addressing Economic Challenges
China is currently facing significant challenges that threaten its status as the world’s second-largest economy. Factors such as the pandemic and international trade tensions have contributed to a recent economic slowdown. In response, the government has enacted measures like interest rate cuts and relaxed real estate market restrictions, aiming to boost essential sectors such as construction and consumption.
The Role of the NDRC
The NDRC plays a pivotal role in these policy implementations. By coordinating various measures, the agency seeks to balance short-term growth with structural optimization for future stability. As China navigates this critical juncture, the decisions made at the upcoming conference will be vital for ensuring economic resilience and positioning the nation as a global leader.
Source : China boosts economic growth with new policies – London Business News | Londonlovesbusiness.com
- Understanding risks for Australia of China’s slowing economy is Chalmers’ top priority at upcoming Beijing talks
- Establishing a Family Office in Hong Kong
- China Stimulates Economic Growth Through New Policies – London Business News | Londonlovesbusiness.com
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