China
Uncertainty ahead for Xi’s China
Author: Kerry Brown, King’s College London
In 2021 China was, and in 2022 again will be, dominated by the domestic economy, relations with the United States, the COVID-19 pandemic and President Xi Jinping.
Despite spectacular bounce-back growth in the first half of the year, China’s economy had slowed dramatically by year’s end. Worries centred on the property market, a perennial concern for over a decade due to fears of overheating.
While disaster has so far been averted, in 2022 all eyes will be both on how the government handles this looming crisis and how it continues to treat the private sector, a significant source of employment. It will also be important to see how Beijing implements its ‘dual circulation’ strategy which is meant to strengthen the role of Chinese consumers and make them more important as sources of growth. The test will be to see whether this reenergises growth. Harsh lockdowns are also unlikely to aid growth in the year ahead.
Relations with the United States remain fractious despite Joe Biden’s replacement of Donald Trump as president in January 2021. On the positive side, the COP26 climate change agreement in October and the US–China dialogue on the environment offered one of the few positive and constructive links between the two powers.
But the two sides remain as far apart politically as ever. The United States is increasingly concerned about China’s assertiveness in the region and posture towards Taiwan. There is also strong bipartisan anger in the United States over China’s human rights issues. In November and December, China and the United States held separate summits on democracy, a remarkable symbol of their almost parallel diplomatic and ideological worlds.
These competing allies will continue to try to manage their mutual antipathy and gain support from third parties in 2022. More deals like the AUKUS pact can be expected, as well as more efforts to promote the Belt and Road Initiative on the Chinese side. The Winter Olympics in late January will offer a moment to see this polarised world in a frozen shot — with China no doubt proclaiming it a huge success. But the United States and its allies — many of whom have already announced a diplomatic boycott — are either condemning or doing their best to ignore it.
In 2021, the management of COVID-19 in China was markedly different to the rest of the world. Beijing’s insistence on draconian lockdowns meant that even single incidences of infection saw cities and regions closed down. The upside to this was effective prevention of COVD-19 spreading.
For the United States, pandemic management underlined deeply divided domestic politics, with masks and vaccinations becoming battlegrounds between left and right. Similar divisions of libertarians versus their opponents were seen across Europe and Australia. 2022 will make clear which of these comes up delivering at least some level of normality. A third year of disruption, economic turmoil and uncertainty will lead to heavier political and social costs.
Whether Xi’s autocracy will prove more resilient than Western democracy will be a decisive question. What is already clear is that the pandemic has deepened divisions in terms of government systems, nations and ideology. These will remain, and most likely deepen, in the coming year.
In 2021, the domestic political narrative within China was dominated by the celebration of the 100th anniversary of the Communist Party in July. Authorised histories of the Party’s time in existence and period in power came out in April, and then as part of an official resolution were issued during the Party’s annual plenum meeting in October. The latter made clear the long list of challenges from delivering public health to addressing China’s environmental problems and dealing with inequality.
Xi’s administration showed it took no hostages, giving figures like multi-billionaire Jack Ma of Alibaba harsh treatment for criticisms he was deemed to have made of the central bank. Other entrepreneurs also found themselves on thin ice. The message was clear — China under Xi was about levelling up the middle class, the new heroes of the revolution. Their standards of living needed addressing, something that became even clearer when the results of the national census held every ten years were issued.
This census showed a dramatically slowing population growth rate, with the final figure barely reaching 1.4 billion. Over 60 per cent of China’s population is now urban, up from 50 per cent in 2010. Xi’s…
China
New Report from Dezan Shira & Associates: China Takes the Lead in Emerging Asia Manufacturing Index 2024
China has been the world’s largest manufacturer for 14 years, producing one-third of global manufacturing output. In the Emerging Asia Manufacturing Index 2024, China ranks highest among eight emerging countries in the region. Challenges for these countries include global demand disparities affecting industrial output and export orders.
Known as the “World’s Factory”, China has held the title of the world’s largest manufacturer for 14 consecutive years, starting from 2010. Its factories churn out approximately one-third of the global manufacturing output, a testament to its industrial might and capacity.
China’s dominant role as the world’s sole manufacturing power is reaffirmed in Dezan Shira & Associates’ Emerging Asia Manufacturing Index 2024 report (“EAMI 2024”), in which China secures the top spot among eight emerging countries in the Asia-Pacific region. The other seven economies are India, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam, and Bangladesh.
The EAMI 2024 aims to assess the potential of these eight economies, navigate the risks, and pinpoint specific factors affecting the manufacturing landscape.
In this article, we delve into the key findings of the EAMI 2024 report and navigate China’s advantages and disadvantages in the manufacturing sector, placing them within the Asia-Pacific comparative context.
Emerging Asia countries face various challenges, especially in the current phase of increased volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity (VUCA). One notable challenge is the impact of global demand disparities on the manufacturing sector, affecting industrial output and export orders.
This article is republished from China Briefing. Read the rest of the original article.
China Briefing is written and produced by Dezan Shira & Associates. The practice assists foreign investors into China and has done since 1992 through offices in Beijing, Tianjin, Dalian, Qingdao, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Ningbo, Suzhou, Guangzhou, Dongguan, Zhongshan, Shenzhen, and Hong Kong. Please contact the firm for assistance in China at china@dezshira.com.
China
Is journalist Vicky Xu preparing to return to China?
Chinese social media influencers have recently claimed that prominent Chinese-born Australian journalist Vicky Xu had posted a message saying she planned to return to China.
There is no evidence for this. The source did not provide evidence to support the claim, and Xu herself later confirmed to AFCL that she has no such plans.
Currently working as an analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, or ASPI, Xu has previously written for both the Australian Broadcasting Corporation, or ABC, and The New York Times.
A Chinese language netizen on X initially claimed on March 31 that the changing geopolitical relations between Sydney and Beijing had caused Xu to become an expendable asset and that she had posted a message expressing a strong desire to return to China. An illegible, blurred photo of the supposed message accompanied the post.
This claim was retweeted by a widely followed influencer on the popular Chinese social media site Weibo one day later, who additionally commented that Xu was a “traitor” who had been abandoned by Australian media.
Following the publication of an ASPI article in 2021 which exposed forced labor conditions in Xinjiang co-authored by Xu, the journalist was labeled “morally bankrupt” and “anti-China” by the Chinese state owned media outlet Global Times and subjected to an influx of threatening messages and digital abuse, eventually forcing her to temporarily close several of her social media accounts.
AFCL found that neither Xu’s active X nor LinkedIn account has any mention of her supposed return to China, and received the following response from Xu herself about the rumor:
“I can confirm that I don’t have plans to go back to China. I think if I do go back I’ll most definitely be detained or imprisoned – so the only career I’ll be having is probably going to be prison labor or something like that, which wouldn’t be ideal.”
Neither a keyword search nor reverse image search on the photo attached to the original X post turned up any text from Xu supporting the netizens’ claims.
Translated by Shen Ke. Edited by Shen Ke and Malcolm Foster.
Asia Fact Check Lab (AFCL) was established to counter disinformation in today’s complex media environment. We publish fact-checks, media-watches and in-depth reports that aim to sharpen and deepen our readers’ understanding of current affairs and public issues. If you like our content, you can also follow us on Facebook, Instagram and X.
Read the rest of this article here >>> Is journalist Vicky Xu preparing to return to China?
China
Guide for Foreign Residents: Obtaining a Certificate of No Criminal Record in China
Foreign residents in China can request a criminal record check from their local security bureau. This certificate may be required for visa applications or job opportunities. Requirements and procedures vary by city. In Shanghai, foreigners must have lived there for 180 days with a valid visa to obtain the certificate.
Foreign residents living in China can request a criminal record check from the local security bureau in the city in which they have lived for at least 180 days. Certificates of no criminal record may be required for people leaving China, or those who are starting a new position in China and applying for a new visa or residence permit. Taking Shanghai as an example, we outline the requirements for obtaining a China criminal record check.
Securing a Certificate of No Criminal Record, often referred to as a criminal record or criminal background check, is a crucial step for various employment opportunities, as well as visa applications and residency permits in China. Nevertheless, navigating the process can be a daunting task due to bureaucratic procedures and language barriers.
In this article, we use Shanghai as an example to explore the essential information and steps required to successfully obtain a no-criminal record check. Requirements and procedures may differ in other cities and counties in China.
Note that foreigners who are not currently living in China and need a criminal record check to apply for a Chinese visa must obtain the certificate from their country of residence or nationality, and have it notarized by a Chinese embassy or consulate in that country.
Foreigners who have a valid residence permit and have lived in Shanghai for at least 180 days can request a criminal record check in the city. This means that the applicant will also need to currently have a work, study, or other form of visa or stay permit that allows them to live in China long-term.
If a foreigner has lived in another part of China and is planning to or has recently moved to Shanghai, they will need to request a criminal record check in the place where they previously spent at least 180 days.
There are two steps to obtaining a criminal record certificate in Shanghai: requesting the criminal record check from the Public Security Bureau (PSB) and getting the resulting Certificate of No Criminal Record notarized by an authorized notary agency.
This article is republished from China Briefing. Read the rest of the original article.
China Briefing is written and produced by Dezan Shira & Associates. The practice assists foreign investors into China and has done since 1992 through offices in Beijing, Tianjin, Dalian, Qingdao, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Ningbo, Suzhou, Guangzhou, Dongguan, Zhongshan, Shenzhen, and Hong Kong. Please contact the firm for assistance in China at china@dezshira.com.
- New Report from Dezan Shira & Associates: China Takes the Lead in Emerging Asia Manufacturing Index 2024
- Is journalist Vicky Xu preparing to return to China?
- Guide for Foreign Residents: Obtaining a Certificate of No Criminal Record in China
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