China
The right reasons for saying no to nuclear first use
Author: Hugh White, ANU
Washington is once again debating whether to declare that it will never be the first to use nuclear weapons. There are good reasons why it should. But it would not be right to suggest that a no-first use policy would cost the United States nothing strategically.
On the contrary, it would be a grave step. That does not mean it should not be taken — it should. But the consequences need to be fully understood for the wisdom of a no-first use policy to become clear.
Those who oppose no first use have a key fact on their side. In some circumstances, threatening to launch a nuclear attack can deter an adversary when conventional forces cannot. It worked when US and NATO conventional forces had little chance of defeating a Soviet invasion of Western Europe during the Cold War. What deterred Moscow from invading was Washington’s clear threat to use nuclear weapons first to stop Soviet tanks.
It is widely assumed that US conventional forces have since become vastly superior to everyone else’s, so they no longer need to rely on nuclear threats to prevail. This is the key argument for adopting a no-first use policy today.
Yet US superiority in conventional warfare is a myth. Washington’s conventional forces have ‘global reach’ — an unmatched capacity to project armed force to battlefields far from the United States itself. But they cannot deploy enough force to distant battlefields to defeat a major power like Russia or China fighting on its own doorstep.
Washington can no longer expect to win a conventional war in the Western Pacific over, say, Taiwan against China’s vastly improved maritime forces. At best it would achieve a costly and inconclusive stalemate, an outcome that Washington could only hope to break by threatening nuclear attack.
Making such a threat is not explicit in US policy today, but without the capacity to make it there seems no way for the United States to win a war over Taiwan, and it will thus become harder to deter China from attacking Taiwan. This is a throwback to the Cold War.
But that doesn’t settle the argument over no first use, because nuclear threats will only deter China if they are credible — credible in the face of China’s threat to retaliate against any US nuclear attack on China with nuclear attacks on the United States. If threats to go nuclear are not credible, there is no point in keeping the option open.
This is not a new problem. During the Cold War Washington had to convince the Soviets that the United States would use nuclear weapons to defend Western Europe when it was virtually certain that the Soviets would retaliate with nuclear strikes against the US homeland. It did so by convincing the Kremlin that Washington believed defending Western Europe was essential to the defence of the United States itself.
Can Washington do the same now? Can it convince Beijing that the United States sees the defence of Taiwan in the same way it saw the defence of Western Europe during the Cold War? The answer is almost certainly no, partly because Americans themselves do not argue that way — and partly because it is so evidently not true.
The stakes over Taiwan are high, but not that high. Its defence is vital to preserve Washington’s role as the leading power in Asia, but not to the defence of the United States itself. That means it cannot credibly threaten to fight a nuclear war — and risk nuclear attack on US cities — to defend Taiwan.
Some may argue that US nuclear threats nonetheless remain credible because China’s retaliatory threats are not credible, thanks to America’s ability to destroy Chinese warheads before they reach their targets, and to launch massive counter-retaliatory strikes that would deter Chinese retaliation.
But some Chinese warheads would probably survive US pre-emptive strikes and penetrate its missile defences to reach US cities. And no president could be sure that Beijing would not be willing to risk US counter-retaliatory strikes when the stakes for them are so high — just as Washington was willing to risk Soviet nuclear retaliation in the Cold War. The risk of Chinese retaliation remains very real, and the credibility of US threats to use nuclear weapons first is correspondingly low.
That alone is good reason for Washington to abandon the first use option, and it leads into an even better reason. The heated debates over no first use show how firmly many people in Washington still believe that US threats to use nuclear weapons first against China are credible. That leads them to overestimate…
Business
China’s Travel Surge: Expanded Visa Exemptions Enhance Tourism and Business Prospects, Improving Access for Travelers and Strengthening Global Connectivity – Travel And Tour World
China has improved travel access by expanding visa exemptions, attracting millions of international visitors and fostering cultural exchanges, while enhancing global connectivity and positively shifting perceptions of the country.
The Shift in China’s Travel Landscape
China is experiencing a travel boom driven by a significant reduction in visa restrictions. Starting December 1, 2023, travelers from 38 countries, including major European nations, can visit visa-free for up to 30 days. This change reflects China’s commitment to enhance global mobility and revitalize its tourism industry post-pandemic. As a result, international arrivals increased to over 8.1 million by the third quarter of 2024, marking a 48.8% rise from the previous year.
Exploring Beyond Traditional Destinations
The new access has prompted travelers to seek immersive experiences, venturing beyond iconic sites like the Forbidden City. Tourists increasingly explore local cultures and markets, enhancing their understanding of daily life in China. Guides have adapted, offering tours that include cultural hotspots and local culinary experiences, thereby enriching the overall visitor journey and promoting authentic engagement.
Broader Implications for Global Connectivity
China’s visa-free initiatives foster greater international connectivity and cooperation in trade. As foreign travelers find it easier to engage with Chinese businesses, reciprocal visa easings may follow globally. The improved perceptions of safety and hospitality, highlighted through social media, contribute to a renewed interest in China’s diverse cultural landscape and its potential as a primary travel destination.
China
China-Denmark Trade and Investment: Key Developments and Emerging Opportunities
China’s investments in Denmark enhance collaboration in renewable energy, green technology, and digital infrastructure, aligning with both nations’ sustainable development goals. Their partnership, solidified by joint programs, underscores mutual economic interests and complementary strengths in green innovation and manufacturing.
As both countries share a commitment to sustainable development, China’s increasing investments in Denmark are driving innovation in renewable energy, green technology, and digital infrastructure. This partnership is further strengthened by Denmark’s expertise in wind energy and environmental solutions, aligning well with China’s goals to transition to a greener and more digitally advanced economy.
The growing trade and investment relationship between China and Denmark not only reflects mutual economic interests but also highlights the complementary strengths of each nation. Denmark’s high-tech manufacturing, environmental engineering, and green energy solutions are vital to meeting China’s evolving demands, while China’s large-scale market and industrial capacity offer vast opportunities for Danish enterprises. Together, these nations are paving the way for continued progress in sustainability, technological innovation, and economic growth.
In 2017, the two countries took a further step to solidify their relationship by establishing a Joint Work Programme for 2017-2020. The program acted as a blueprint for bilateral cooperation, encouraging strategic dialogues and joint ventures between the two nations in key areas such as trade, investment, environmental sustainability, and technology
The partnership was further reinforced in November 2021, when the Foreign Ministers of China and Denmark announced the commitment to a new phase of cooperation through the Green China-Denmark Joint Work Programme. The agreement emphasizes the acceleration of green technologies, renewable energy, positioning Denmark’s expertise in clean energy and green innovation as a crucial asset in China’s drive toward a greener economy.
Over the past five years, China’s exports to Denmark have shown consistent growth, further strengthening the economic ties between the two nations. This trend underscores their mutual commitment to expanding commercial relations and unlocking the potential for deeper cooperation.
China’s growing importance to Denmark, both as a market and as a supplier of production inputs, is evident in the economic integration over the last three decades. Today, China is Denmark’s fourth-largest export market, after the United States, Germany, and Sweden.
| This article was first published by China Briefing , which is produced by Dezan Shira & Associates. The firm assists foreign investors throughout Asia from offices across the world, including in in China, Hong Kong, Vietnam, Singapore, and India . Readers may write to info@dezshira.com for more support. |
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China
Joe Biden in Africa: US president has ignored the continent for his entire term – why he’s visiting Angola
Joe Biden, having largely overlooked Africa during his presidency, is visiting Angola to address key issues and strengthen diplomatic ties, signaling a renewed focus on the continent.
Joe Biden in Africa: US president has ignored the continent for his entire term – why he’s visiting Angola
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
- China’s Travel Surge: Expanded Visa Exemptions Enhance Tourism and Business Prospects, Improving Access for Travelers and Strengthening Global Connectivity – Travel And Tour World
- China-Denmark Trade and Investment: Key Developments and Emerging Opportunities
- Joe Biden in Africa: US president has ignored the continent for his entire term – why he’s visiting Angola
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