China
US–China trade war : will there be a winner ?
The U.S. and China are hours away from a new round of tariffs on each other’s goods, with no improvement in relations between the two rivals in sight. Will there be a winner, or only two big losers ?
The U.S. and China are hours away from a new round of tariffs on each other’s goods, with no improvement in relations between the two rivals in sight.
In a significant escalation, $200 billion of Chinese products will be subject to increased tariffs from 12:00 p.m. Beijing time on Monday, on top of the $50 billion in goods already charged higher duties earlier in the year. The combined $250 billion in products facing levies is almost half the value of imports from China last year.
Meanwhile, $60 billion of goods from the U.S. will become subject to Chinese higher tariffs around the same time, adding to the $50 billion already levied. That’ll mean about 70 percent of the value of goods China bought from America in 2017 face tariffs.
There are three major explanations for why the United States began its recent trade war with China
United States wants to reduce its trade deficit
The first is that the United States wants to reduce its trade deficits. US President Donald Trump tweeted on 4 April 2018 that ‘[the United States has] a Trade Deficit of $500 Billion a year, with Intellectual Property Theft of another $300 Billion. We cannot let this continue!’. Many US commentators think that the gargantuan imbalance translates into an incremental increase in US indebtedness to China, which they consider to be a huge vulnerability for the United States.
The United States wants to slow China’s progress toward being a high-tech superpower
The second is that the United States wants to slow China’s progress toward being a high-tech superpower. The main sectors in China getting hit are machinery, electronics and IT technology. This is tantamount to the United States’ directly targeting Made in China 2025.
The final explanation is that ‘Trump favours highly transactional exchanges’ and wants an increased stock of bargaining chips. Trump may well have begun a trade war with China now so that he can relinquish it later in exchange for cooperation over perplexing political and security issues.
Whatever the cause, China has been bashed by the trade war. Over the last five months, the Shanghai Composite Index — a barometer of the Chinese stock market — has plummeted by approximately 18 per cent and the Chinese renminbi has depreciated nearly 8 per cent. Because China is still export dependent, the trade war will make Chinese export firms lose approximately US$22 billion and will cause unemployment, especially in China’s east coast.
China faces daunting domestic challenges
Even without the trade war, China faces daunting domestic challenges.
After years of work, China’s economic structural change is slowly progressing. China’s private consumption as percentage of GDP has been increasing since 2010, but it has not yet breached 40 per cent (compared to a US average of 68 per cent). China’s gross savings rate is more than 46 per cent of GNP against the United States’ 17.3 per cent.
Continued high national savings for a long time fully financed Chinese investment and sustained it at a very high level. Even today, China’s investment accounts for 44.4 per cent of GDP. This prolonged investment on a massive scale has created significant overcapacity in a range of sectors and has engendered much debt — part of which has become non-performing loans.
The trade war will only drive the renminbi to further depreciate
Amid China’s internal issues, the trade war will only drive the renminbi to further depreciate. In recent months, Beijing has taken a series of monetary and fiscal initiatives to boost lending and restructure debt.
These initiatives may ameliorate the situation in the short term, but solving the problems completely and successfully will take much longer than expected. If the trade war lingers on until the end of 2018 or even till 2019, market sell-off pressure on the renminbi will likely increase. In addition, US economic indicators look sublime and the almost-inevitable interest rate raise will facilitate further renminbi depreciation.
The worst case scenario would be a persistent trade war coupled with US interest rate increases. This would elicit very negative sentiment and might cause large-scale capital flight from China.
But can the United States achieve the objectives it seeks from the trade war?
The United States cannot drive down or stop trade deficits for the foreseeable future. Anyone who understands balance of payments accounting knows that the sum of the current account and the capital account must equal zero. The United States has very flexible and liquid capital markets with highly credible governance, which lures countries with trade surpluses to export a large part of their excess savings to the United States.
In 2017, US net financial inflows stood at more than US$375 billion, and the capital account surplus exceeded US$400 billion. Further, in today’s trade regime, the capital account drives the savings account. Unless the United States can flip around its capital account surplus, overall trade deficits will remain huge.
Similarly, the United States will struggle to blight China’s Made in China 2025 initiative.
Technology innovation and investment are being promoted by the Chinese government.
There are now 1775 Chinese venture capital firms. China is determined to narrow the income gap between itself and the advanced countries. So a trade war aiming to refrain China from technological enhancement will ‘only strengthen Chinese leaders’ resolve to boost innovation and achieve technological supremacy, as they realise that they can’t rely on others’, as Joseph Stiglitz notes.
Finally, if Trump plans on using a trade war as a bargaining chip, he should know that China will not likely compromise, at least in the short term. Popular anger and national sentiment may well surge about the trade war, which would leave the Chinese government with little choice but to stand firm. China could use ‘strong sales of US brands’ as its own bargaining chip, but if the trade war lasts for more months and China’s economy continues to worsen, the US bargaining chips might increase in potency. Yet still, China could hardly give in to any conditions that violate its national interests.
The trade war will accomplish neither country’s objectives.
China and the United States need to install an effective communications channel, dispatch high-echelon officials who deeply understand each other, come to negotiations, and as Harvard economist Dani Rodrik suggests, ‘do not impose on other countries constraints that you would not accept if faced with their circumstances’.
Yuhan Zhang is an economist and independent researcher.
Who will be the winner of the US–China trade war? | East Asia Forum
China
China Provides Tax Incentives on Special Equipment for Green and Digital Development
China has introduced a new tax incentive for companies investing in digital and smart upgrades of special equipment to encourage environmental protection and safe production. Companies can enjoy a 10 percent deduction from their corporate income tax payable. Eligibility and requirements are outlined by the Ministry of Finance and State Tax Administration.
A new China tax incentive aims to encourage companies to invest in digital and smart upgrades of special equipment. Companies upgrading certain equipment that aids environmental protection and safe production can enjoy a deduction of the investment at a rate of 10 percent from their corporate income tax payable. We explain the requirements of the new tax incentive.
China’s Ministry of Finance (MOF) and State Tax Administration (STA) have issued a new preferential corporate income tax (CIT) incentive for companies investing in digital and intelligent transformations of certain types of equipment. To be eligible for the incentive, companies must invest in the digital and intelligent transformation of equipment related to energy and water conservation, environmental protection, and safe production.
The new tax incentive aligns with a State Council Action Plan, released in March 2024, which aims to accelerate the renewal of large-scale equipment and consumer goods, promoting high-quality development and driving investment and consumption for long-term benefits.
If the annual CIT payable is insufficient for the offset, it can be carried forward to future years for up to five years.
The CIT payable refers to the balance after multiplying the annual taxable income by the applicable tax rate and deducting the tax reductions and exemptions according to China’s CIT Law and relevant preferential policies.
Note that companies enjoying the tax incentives must use the transformed equipment themselves. If the equipment is transferred or leased within five tax years after the transformation is completed, the incentives must stop from the month the equipment is no longer in use, and the previously offset CIT must be repaid.
The “special equipment” eligible for the preferential tax treatment covers equipment purchased and used by companies listed in the Catalog of Special Equipment for Safe Production for Corporate Income Tax Incentives (2018 Edition) and the Catalog of Special Equipment for Energy Saving, Water Conservation, and Environmental Protection for Corporate Income Tax Incentives (2017 Edition).
This article is republished from China Briefing. Read the rest of the original article.
China Briefing is written and produced by Dezan Shira & Associates. The practice assists foreign investors into China and has done since 1992 through offices in Beijing, Tianjin, Dalian, Qingdao, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Ningbo, Suzhou, Guangzhou, Dongguan, Zhongshan, Shenzhen, and Hong Kong. Please contact the firm for assistance in China at china@dezshira.com.
China
Revealing the Encouraged Industries of Hainan in 2024: Unlocking Opportunities
The 2024 Hainan Encouraged Catalogue, issued by the NDRC, MOF, and STA, aims to boost industries in the Hainan Free Trade Port. It prioritizes sectors like tourism, modern services, and high technologies, offering incentives for foreign investment and market access expansion since 2020. The Catalogue includes 176 entries across 14 categories, with 33 new additions focusing on cultural tourism, new energy, medicine and health, aviation, aerospace, and environmental protection.
The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), in collaboration with the Ministry of Finance (MOF) and the State Taxation Administration (STA), has issued the Catalogue of Industries Encouraged to Develop in Hainan Free Trade Port (2024 Version), hereinafter referred to as the “2024 Hainan Encouraged Catalogue.” The updated Catalogue took effect on March 1, 2024, replacing the previous 2020 Edition.
Beyond the industries already addressed in existing national catalogues, the new entries in the 2024 Hainan Encouraged Catalogue are based on practical implementation experiences and the specific needs within Hainan, prioritizing sectors such as tourism, modern services, and high technologies.
The Hainan FTP has been providing incentives to draw investors to invest and establish businesses in the region, especially foreign investment. Alongside a phased approach to opening the capital account and facilitating free capital movement, Hainan has significantly expanded market access for foreign enterprises since 2020, particularly in sectors such as telecommunications, tourism, and education.
The Hainan Encouraged Catalogue comprises two main sections:
Similar to the approach adopted by the western regions, foreign-invested enterprises (FIEs) should always implement their production or operations in accordance with the Catalogue of Encouraged Industries for Foreign Investment.
On top of the industries already addressed in existing national catalogues, the 2024 Hainan Encouraged Catalogue encompasses 14 distinct categories and a total of 176 entries especially encouraged in the region, including 33 new additions compared to the 2020 Edition. These new entries predominantly span cultural tourism, new energy, medicine and health, aviation and aerospace, and ecological and environmental protection, among others.
This article is republished from China Briefing. Read the rest of the original article.
China Briefing is written and produced by Dezan Shira & Associates. The practice assists foreign investors into China and has done since 1992 through offices in Beijing, Tianjin, Dalian, Qingdao, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Ningbo, Suzhou, Guangzhou, Dongguan, Zhongshan, Shenzhen, and Hong Kong. Please contact the firm for assistance in China at china@dezshira.com.
China
Key Guidelines for Companies in Compliance Audits for Personal Information Protection Standards
China’s standards authority has released draft standards for personal information protection compliance audits, potentially making them mandatory for companies in 2023. The audits will require companies to undergo annual or biennial checks based on the number of people’s information they handle. The draft standards outline the audit process and requirements, seeking public feedback until September 11, 2024.
China’s standards authority has released draft standards for conducting personal information protection compliance audits. Regular compliance audits to ensure compliance with personal information protection regulations may become a requirement for companies in China under draft measures released in 2023. We explain the audit processes and requirements proposed in the draft standards.
The Standardization Administration of China (SAC) has released a set of draft standards for conducting personal information (PI) protection compliance audits. Under draft measures released by the Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC) in August 2023, companies that process the PI of people in China are required to undergo regular compliance audits.
Specifically, companies that process the PI of over one million people must undergo a compliance audit at least once a year, while companies that process the PI of under one million people must carry out an audit at least once every two years.
While the draft measures stipulate the obligations of the auditing body and the audit scope, the draft standards outline the specific audit process, including evidence management and permissions of the audit organization, as well as the professional and ethical requirements of auditors.
The Secretariat of the National Cybersecurity Standardization Technical Committee is soliciting public feedback on the draft standards until September 11, 2024. Public comment on the draft measures released in August last year closed on September 2, 2023, but no updated document has yet been released.
The draft standards outline five stages of the PI protection compliance audit: audit preparation, implementation, reporting, problem rectification, and archiving management.
Auditors are required to accurately document identified security issues in the audit working papers, ensuring that the records are comprehensive, clear, and conclusive, reflecting the audit plan and its execution, as well as all relevant findings and recommendations.
This article is republished from China Briefing. Read the rest of the original article.
China Briefing is written and produced by Dezan Shira & Associates. The practice assists foreign investors into China and has done since 1992 through offices in Beijing, Tianjin, Dalian, Qingdao, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Ningbo, Suzhou, Guangzhou, Dongguan, Zhongshan, Shenzhen, and Hong Kong. Please contact the firm for assistance in China at china@dezshira.com.
- China Provides Tax Incentives on Special Equipment for Green and Digital Development
- Revealing the Encouraged Industries of Hainan in 2024: Unlocking Opportunities
- Key Guidelines for Companies in Compliance Audits for Personal Information Protection Standards
- A Comprehensive Guide to China’s Expanded 144-Hour Visa-Free Transit Policy at 37 Ports
- Regulatory Changes in China Aim to Boost Service Sector Growth in Six Cities
- Adhering to Updated Registered Capital Regulations in China’s Revised Company Law
