China
Solomon Islands’ Political Crisis Won’t Alter Ties with Beijing
Experts believe the Solomon Islands’ political crisis won’t affect its close ties with China, despite defections from Prime Minister Jeremiah Manele’s coalition. Manele’s pro-China stance continues, raising concerns over security issues, while domestic power struggles persist among parliament members.
Regardless of how the current political crisis in the Solomon Islands unfolds, experts told Radio Free Asia that they anticipate no change in the country’s close-knit relationship with China.
The crisis was kicked into full gear in March, when 19 members of parliament defected from Prime Minister Jeremiah Manele’s ruling coalition, called the Government for National Unity and Transformation, or GNUT, to join the opposition.
This created an opposition coalition of 28 parliament members, a majority of the 50-seat legislative body. They immediately filed a motion for no confidence, and called on Manele to convene parliament so a vote could be held.
But Manele has been refusing to convene, so he remains Prime Minister.
Shift to Beijing
Manele has been described by observers as pro-Chinese, just like his predecessor Manasseh Sogavare, under whom Manele served as foreign minister.
Then-Foreign Minister Manele signed the 2019 agreement to recognize China instead of Taiwan, and was a central figure in negotiating the 2022 security pact with Beijing that opposition leader Matthew Wale has criticized as being too secretive and undermining the security of the Solomon Islands, based on leaked drafts of the agreement prior to its signing.
Beijing has even set up a police station in the capital Honiara, a move that sparked concern among the U.S. and Australia that China was expanding its security and surveillance capabilities beyond its borders.
Violent civil unrest broke out in 2021, with protesters claiming that Sogavare was selling off the country’s sovereignty to Beijing, and calling for him to resign. Rioters attacked Chinatown businesses in the capital Honiara, torched one of Sogavare’s homes, and attempted to storm parliament.
Three years later, Chinese influence in the Solomons was very much on the ballot in 2024, with opposition candidates even saying that if elected as prime minister, they would cancel the security agreement and switch back to recognizing Taiwan, but Manele’s party prevailed and he was sworn in.
Manele’s government is a continuation of the Sogavare’s pro-Beijing stance, Joseph Foukona, a history professor at the University of Hawaii at Manoa, who hails from the Solomon Islands, told RFA.
“So in his role in the previous government, which was where Sogavare was the prime minister, It’s obvious that he promotes the one China policy and his government is sort of aligned with that policy as well,” Foukona said.
But when asked what the current rift in the government is about, Foukona said that there was not really much detail about why the 19 members of parliament defected, only saying that they must be having “internal issues.”
The rift is over more than just the pro-China stances of Manele’s government, Kathryn Paik, deputy director and senior fellow with the Australia Chair at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, or CSIS, told RFA.
“There’s a lot more going on domestically and there’s a lot of power plays domestically happening within the parliament that might have nothing to do with China and the China relationship,” she said. “Parliamentarians are also going to use that relationship with China for their advantage whether it’s to oust Manele or if that’s a good argument against it.
But she said it is likely that China has started to build relationships with other politicians in the Solomon Islands as a hedge, just in case they come into power in the future.
What next?
The opposition, now referred to as the New Coalition, won a legal challenge in mid-April, with the country’s High Court ruling that Manele was unconstitutionally delaying the vote.
Manele’s government has filed an appeal to that decision, and the Court of Appeal is expected to issue a ruling on Friday.
But even if he wins the appeal, Manele will eventually have to convene parliament. Legally, the country’s constitution mandates that the body must meet at least once per…
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