China
China Advances in 2026 While Trump Strives to Keep Up
Beijing anticipated Donald Trump’s return to the White House, knowing he was both capricious and transactional. The US’s self-interest prompted China to maintain caution while asserting its interests, particularly on Taiwan. In 2025, China’s responses to Trump’s tariffs involved reciprocal actions, leading to limited agreements. By limiting rare mineral exports, China showcased leverage over US high-tech manufacturing. Trump’s social media bluster contrasted with his negotiating patterns. Meanwhile, China fostered partnerships with entities like the EU, ultimately achieving a US$1 trillion surplus by 2025. At the APEC Summit, Xi Jinping appeared more in control, gaining domestic political benefits.
Beijing’s Strategic Preparedness
Beijing anticipated the return of US President Donald Trump, recognizing his unpredictable yet transactional nature. His emphasis on economic deals meant that engaging with China, a significant player on the global stage, would likely resonate with his self-interest. The US’s contentious actions, such as the abduction of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, highlighted a defensive and self-serving American approach, prompting China to navigate its strategies carefully.
Cautious Maneuvers in the South China Sea
As China sought to assert its interests in the South China Sea and Taiwan, it remained aware of the need to avoid unnecessary escalation. A major military exercise near Taiwan in late 2025 underscored Beijing’s commitment to these issues, demonstrating its readiness to act while remaining cautious. This dual approach indicates a calculated effort to balance assertiveness with restraint in a shifting geopolitical landscape.
Evolving Responses to US Challenges
Throughout 2025, China adapted its strategies in response to Trump’s tariffs, imposing its own while securing limited deals as the US retreated under pressure. By leveraging its dominance in rare minerals, China highlighted its strategic importance in high-tech manufacturing. Meanwhile, Beijing engaged in side agreements with partners like the European Union to bolster its economy, culminating in a record trade surplus of $1 trillion by year-end. When Trump and Xi Jinping met at the APEC Summit, Xi emerged as a more authoritative figure, reaping domestic political benefits from his stance against the US.
