China
Why China’s growing cities do not threaten farmland
Author: John Gibson, University of Waikato
China recently announced strict controls to stop big cities expanding on to neighbouring farmland. The Minister for Land and Resources Jiang Daming justified these controls by claiming that good farmland has been ‘eaten by steel and cement’. To safeguard food security, land on the outskirts of cities will be classified as ‘permanent basic farmland’ that can be used only for cultivation.
These controls are to apply first to big cities like Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou. Attempts to restrict the growth of big cities are long-standing features of China’s urban policy.
Yet these restrictions likely will do more harm than good.
Housing prices in China’s biggest cities are extremely high relative to incomes, and restricting land supply will drive them even higher. For example, the price per square metre of apartments in Beijing is more than four times that of Chongqing, and the price-to-income ratio is over twice as high. It is variation in land prices, rather than construction costs, that accounts for these differences in house prices.
High house prices, and other distortions due to a restricted land supply, may choke off the expected benefits from allowing big cities to expand. China has more to gain from concentrating economic activity than is the case for developed countries. A legacy of China’s history of central planning and migration controls is that it has too many small cities.
It is also unclear whether or not China has a shortage of farmland.
China is increasingly open to importing land-intensive products, as shown by its recent free trade agreements with food exporters like Australia and New Zealand. Even ignoring trade, studies based on satellite remote sensing show that China’s cultivated land area in fact increased (by 2 per cent) in the two decades prior to 2000. These same methods also show that urban area expands by only 3 per cent for every 10 per cent increase in city GDP. This ratio is much less than it is elsewhere, indicating the dense nature of China’s cities.
Much of this evidence is ignored in policy discussions that suggest urbanisation in China relies excessively on land conversion, which is causing inefficient urban sprawl.
My recent paper, co-authored with Chao Li and Geua Boe-Gibson, estimates rates of area expansion for an almost national sample of 225 urban agglomerations in China from 1993 to 2012.
City area in China is measured in three ways. The first is to use administrative data on the built-up urban districts (shiqu) of prefectural cities reported in City Statistical Yearbooks. Such estimates may be too low since local level governments may undertake land conversions to help finance their budget but not report this to higher levels of government who may be setting limits on land conversion.
The other two methods use satellite-detected night time lights, with different thresholds of brightness (in percentiles of the maximum light detected) to distinguish urban from non-urban areas. Compared to other remote sensing data, night time lights tend to make cities look too large, especially if a low brightness threshold is used, but the relative error is small for large cities.
Over the two decades from 1993 to 2012 the average annual rate of expansion in land area of these agglomerations was 8 per cent according to night lights, implying a doubling time of nine years. In contrast, expansion rates appear to be just 5 per cent (15 year doubling time) if data from City Yearbooks is used. The gap in expansion rates between the administrative data and the remote sensing estimates is even larger once city GDP and registered population are factored in.
A clear pattern emerges of a slowdown in the rate of expansion of these agglomerations. The second decade from 2003–2012 has annual expansion rates that are from 6–8 percentage points lower than the first decade. If local GDP and population are factored in, the annual expansion rates are even lower — by between 6–10 percentage points. Even the built-up area estimates from the City Yearbook data show a significant slowing in expansion rates.
When city GDP and registered population is taken into account, it seems that — as previous studies have found — a 10 per cent rise in city GDP is associated with a 3 per cent increase in city area, and local population growth has no significant effect. There is no evidence to suggest there is a shift over time in the driving forces of urban expansion that causes an inefficient sprawl beyond what is driven by economic growth.
The increasing land area of the agglomerations reflects China’s urban population’s demand for living space, along with the land needed for commercial and industrial development. Since the rate of urban area expansion appears to be already slowing down, artificial restrictions that prevent big cities from expanding on to nearby farmland are neither necessary nor desirable.
John Gibson is Professor of Economics at the Waikato School of Management, University of Waikato.
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Why China’s growing cities do not threaten farmland
China
New Report from Dezan Shira & Associates: China Takes the Lead in Emerging Asia Manufacturing Index 2024
China has been the world’s largest manufacturer for 14 years, producing one-third of global manufacturing output. In the Emerging Asia Manufacturing Index 2024, China ranks highest among eight emerging countries in the region. Challenges for these countries include global demand disparities affecting industrial output and export orders.
Known as the “World’s Factory”, China has held the title of the world’s largest manufacturer for 14 consecutive years, starting from 2010. Its factories churn out approximately one-third of the global manufacturing output, a testament to its industrial might and capacity.
China’s dominant role as the world’s sole manufacturing power is reaffirmed in Dezan Shira & Associates’ Emerging Asia Manufacturing Index 2024 report (“EAMI 2024”), in which China secures the top spot among eight emerging countries in the Asia-Pacific region. The other seven economies are India, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam, and Bangladesh.
The EAMI 2024 aims to assess the potential of these eight economies, navigate the risks, and pinpoint specific factors affecting the manufacturing landscape.
In this article, we delve into the key findings of the EAMI 2024 report and navigate China’s advantages and disadvantages in the manufacturing sector, placing them within the Asia-Pacific comparative context.
Emerging Asia countries face various challenges, especially in the current phase of increased volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity (VUCA). One notable challenge is the impact of global demand disparities on the manufacturing sector, affecting industrial output and export orders.
This article is republished from China Briefing. Read the rest of the original article.
China Briefing is written and produced by Dezan Shira & Associates. The practice assists foreign investors into China and has done since 1992 through offices in Beijing, Tianjin, Dalian, Qingdao, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Ningbo, Suzhou, Guangzhou, Dongguan, Zhongshan, Shenzhen, and Hong Kong. Please contact the firm for assistance in China at china@dezshira.com.
China
Is journalist Vicky Xu preparing to return to China?
Chinese social media influencers have recently claimed that prominent Chinese-born Australian journalist Vicky Xu had posted a message saying she planned to return to China.
There is no evidence for this. The source did not provide evidence to support the claim, and Xu herself later confirmed to AFCL that she has no such plans.
Currently working as an analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, or ASPI, Xu has previously written for both the Australian Broadcasting Corporation, or ABC, and The New York Times.
A Chinese language netizen on X initially claimed on March 31 that the changing geopolitical relations between Sydney and Beijing had caused Xu to become an expendable asset and that she had posted a message expressing a strong desire to return to China. An illegible, blurred photo of the supposed message accompanied the post.
This claim was retweeted by a widely followed influencer on the popular Chinese social media site Weibo one day later, who additionally commented that Xu was a “traitor” who had been abandoned by Australian media.
Following the publication of an ASPI article in 2021 which exposed forced labor conditions in Xinjiang co-authored by Xu, the journalist was labeled “morally bankrupt” and “anti-China” by the Chinese state owned media outlet Global Times and subjected to an influx of threatening messages and digital abuse, eventually forcing her to temporarily close several of her social media accounts.
AFCL found that neither Xu’s active X nor LinkedIn account has any mention of her supposed return to China, and received the following response from Xu herself about the rumor:
“I can confirm that I don’t have plans to go back to China. I think if I do go back I’ll most definitely be detained or imprisoned – so the only career I’ll be having is probably going to be prison labor or something like that, which wouldn’t be ideal.”
Neither a keyword search nor reverse image search on the photo attached to the original X post turned up any text from Xu supporting the netizens’ claims.
Translated by Shen Ke. Edited by Shen Ke and Malcolm Foster.
Asia Fact Check Lab (AFCL) was established to counter disinformation in today’s complex media environment. We publish fact-checks, media-watches and in-depth reports that aim to sharpen and deepen our readers’ understanding of current affairs and public issues. If you like our content, you can also follow us on Facebook, Instagram and X.
Read the rest of this article here >>> Is journalist Vicky Xu preparing to return to China?
China
Guide for Foreign Residents: Obtaining a Certificate of No Criminal Record in China
Foreign residents in China can request a criminal record check from their local security bureau. This certificate may be required for visa applications or job opportunities. Requirements and procedures vary by city. In Shanghai, foreigners must have lived there for 180 days with a valid visa to obtain the certificate.
Foreign residents living in China can request a criminal record check from the local security bureau in the city in which they have lived for at least 180 days. Certificates of no criminal record may be required for people leaving China, or those who are starting a new position in China and applying for a new visa or residence permit. Taking Shanghai as an example, we outline the requirements for obtaining a China criminal record check.
Securing a Certificate of No Criminal Record, often referred to as a criminal record or criminal background check, is a crucial step for various employment opportunities, as well as visa applications and residency permits in China. Nevertheless, navigating the process can be a daunting task due to bureaucratic procedures and language barriers.
In this article, we use Shanghai as an example to explore the essential information and steps required to successfully obtain a no-criminal record check. Requirements and procedures may differ in other cities and counties in China.
Note that foreigners who are not currently living in China and need a criminal record check to apply for a Chinese visa must obtain the certificate from their country of residence or nationality, and have it notarized by a Chinese embassy or consulate in that country.
Foreigners who have a valid residence permit and have lived in Shanghai for at least 180 days can request a criminal record check in the city. This means that the applicant will also need to currently have a work, study, or other form of visa or stay permit that allows them to live in China long-term.
If a foreigner has lived in another part of China and is planning to or has recently moved to Shanghai, they will need to request a criminal record check in the place where they previously spent at least 180 days.
There are two steps to obtaining a criminal record certificate in Shanghai: requesting the criminal record check from the Public Security Bureau (PSB) and getting the resulting Certificate of No Criminal Record notarized by an authorized notary agency.
This article is republished from China Briefing. Read the rest of the original article.
China Briefing is written and produced by Dezan Shira & Associates. The practice assists foreign investors into China and has done since 1992 through offices in Beijing, Tianjin, Dalian, Qingdao, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Ningbo, Suzhou, Guangzhou, Dongguan, Zhongshan, Shenzhen, and Hong Kong. Please contact the firm for assistance in China at china@dezshira.com.
- New Report from Dezan Shira & Associates: China Takes the Lead in Emerging Asia Manufacturing Index 2024
- Is journalist Vicky Xu preparing to return to China?
- Guide for Foreign Residents: Obtaining a Certificate of No Criminal Record in China
- China Unveils Plan to Upgrade Industrial Equipment
- China deepens engagement with new Indonesian president as top diplomat visits Jakarta
- New Publication: A Guide for Foreign Investors on Navigating China’s New Company Law
