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Trade

Challenges in boosting Japan’s agricultural exports

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A farmer using rice planting machine conducts rice transplanting in Ryugasaki, Japan, 26 June, 2017 (Photo: Reuters/Issei Kato).

Author: Hironori Sasada, Hokkaido University

The Suga administration recently submitted a bill to revise Japan’s Act on Special Measures to Facilitate Investment in Agricultural Corporations. The bill aims to expand the recipients of investments from special agricultural funds, or limited liability partnerships consisting of financial institutions specialised in financing agricultural businesses. Special agricultural funds are currently only permitted to invest in agricultural sector, but the revision would allow investments in the fishing, forestry and food-processing sectors.

By making greater financial resources available to producers and exporters of agricultural and food products, the Japanese government aims to expand agricultural exports from 922.3 billion yen (US$8.5 billion) in 2020 to 2 trillion yen (US$18.5 billion) by 2025, and 5 trillion (US$46.1 billion) by 2030. The revision is expected to play a significant role in helping to promote exports given the large investments that are needed in infrastructure systems, overseas marketing and advertising, and human resources development.

The promotion of agricultural exports — nicknamed seme no nosei, or ‘proactive agricultural policy’ — has become an important element of Japan’s economic growth strategy. This is in sharp contrast with Japan’s old protectionist policies in the past.

Japan is negotiating with other countries to remove or relax trade barriers and regulations on agricultural products. It is promoting Japanese food product sales by hosting business fairs overseas. Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) established a new agency in 2017, the Japan Food Product Overseas Promotion Center, for overseas sales promotion and branding of Japanese food products. MAFF also started the Global Foodstuff Export Project in 2018, which provides business consulting to producers and exporters. Third, the government provides financial support to producers and exporters to invest in infrastructure systems for exporting their products.

Thanks to such measures, Japan has achieved its goal, set in 2005, to increase agricultural exports from 300 billion yen (US$2.8 billion) to 1 trillion yen (US$9.2 billion) by 2025 almost five years early. Japan’s agricultural exports grew faster than expected, particularly over the last 10 years, thanks to growing global demand for food products and the rising popularity of Japanese food overseas. But still, the growth rate has slowed in the last three years.

Japan faces a number of challenges in continuing to grow its exports of agricultural products beyond the need for investment and proactive government promotion. As such the government will need to take action in following areas.

First, Japanese agricultural products lack price competitiveness in the global market due to high production costs. For example, despite the different rice grain varieties, the average wholesale price of rice in Japan was five times higher than that in Thailand in 2020. Japan can address domestic efforts to suppress rice supply to increase its value through subsidies as well as measures to encourage rice farmers to produce alternative crops.

Second, Japan’s target markets have various trade barriers to food imports, including tariffs, health and safety regulations and other non-tariff barriers — particularly in developing countries. For example, China requires foreign rice to be sterilised in fumigation facilities before shipping. There are only seven facilities of this kind throughout Japan and building more would be costly. While the Suga administration’s law revision would certainly help in this regard, Japan should also negotiate with China to lift such regulations in the future.

Third, violations of intellectual property rights overseas threaten Japanese producers. South Korea exports some plant varieties originally developed in Japan without permission, including strawberries, grapes and sweet potatoes. Sales of these items translate into lost opportunities for Japanese farmers and a reduction in Japanese sales.

Fourth, many countries banned Japanese food imports after the Fukushima nuclear accident in 2011. Though most countries have since lifted the import ban, some Asian countries, such as China and South Korea, still have restrictions on food imports from Fukushima and neighbouring prefectures. The Japanese government should continue to make available scientific data to demonstrate the safety of food products and show these countries that wholesale bans are unnecessary.

Fifth, although…

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Fixing fragmentation in the settlement of international trade disputes

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Fragmentation in global trade due to the lack of development in multilateral trade rules at the WTO has led to an increase in FTAs. The Appellate Body impasse has further exacerbated fragmentation, requiring a multilateral approach for reform.

Fragmentation in Global Trade

Fragmentation in global trade is not new. With the slow development of multilateral trade rules at the World Trade Organization (WTO), governments have turned to free trade agreements (FTAs). As of 2023, almost 600 bilateral and regional trade agreements have been notified to the WTO, leading to growing fragmentation in trade rules, business activities, and international relations. But until recently, trade dispute settlements have predominantly remained within the WTO.

Challenges with WTO Dispute Settlement

The demise of the Appellate Body increased fragmentation in both the interpretation and enforcement of trade law. A small number of WTO Members created the Multi-Party Interim Appeal Arbitration Arrangement (MPIA) as a temporary solution, but in its current form, it cannot properly address fragmentation. Since its creation in 2020, the MPIA has only attracted 26 parties, and its rulings have not been consistent with previous decisions made by the Appellate Body, rendering WTO case law increasingly fragmented.

The Path Forward for Global Trade

Maintaining the integrity and predictability of the global trading system while reducing fragmentation requires restoring the WTO’s authority. At the 12th WTO Ministerial Conference in 2022, governments agreed to re-establish a functional dispute settlement system by 2024. Reaching a consensus will be difficult, and negotiations will take time. A critical mass-based, open plurilateral approach provides a viable alternative way to reform the appellate mechanism, as WTO Members are committed to reforming the dispute settlement system.

Source : Fixing fragmentation in the settlement of international trade disputes

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WTO ministerial trading in low expectations and high stakes

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The WTO’s 13th Ministerial Conference is set to focus on e-commerce transparency, investment facilitation, and admitting new members. However, progress may be hindered by disputes, especially regarding fisheries subsidies.

The World Trade Organisation’s 13th Ministerial Conference

The World Trade Organisation’s (WTO) 13th Ministerial Conference is set to take place in Abu Dhabi on 26–29 February, with expectations of deals on electronic commerce transparency, investment facilitation for development, and the admission of Timor Leste and the Comoros as WTO members. Despite these positive developments, the expectations are relatively modest compared to promises made at the 12th Ministerial Conference, which included addressing fisheries subsidies and restoring a fully functioning dispute settlement mechanism by 2024.

Challenges in Dispute Settlement and Agricultural Trade Reform

However, challenges remain, especially in the deadlock of dispute settlement since December 2019 due to a US veto on the appointment of Appellate Body judges. Progress in restoring the dispute settlement mechanism has stalled, and discord continues regarding India’s grain stockholding policy as a potential illegal subsidy. Restoring a fully functioning dispute settlement mechanism hinges on addressing US concerns about perceived bias against trade remedies in relation to China’s state subsidies.

Geopolitical Tensions and the Future of Trade Relations

The likelihood of reaching agreements amid geopolitical tensions between Western democracies and China appears slim, with issues surrounding subsidies and global supply chains causing rifts in trade relations. As nations focus on self-reliance within the global value chain, opportunities for trading face obstacles. Advocacy for open markets and addressing protectionist sentiments remains crucial for fostering resilience to external shocks and promoting economic growth.

Source : WTO ministerial trading in low expectations and high stakes

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Trade

Getting Vietnam’s economic growth back on track

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Vietnam’s economy grew 8% in 2022 but slowed in 2023 due to falling exports and delays in public investments. The economy’s future depends on structural reforms and reducing dependency on foreign investment.

Vietnam’s Economic Roller Coaster

After emerging from COVID-19 with an 8 per cent annual growth rate, Vietnam’s economy took a downturn in the first half of 2023. The drop was attributed to falling exports due to monetary tightening in developed countries and a slow post-pandemic recovery in China.

Trade Performance and Monetary Policy

Exports were down 12 per cent on-year, with the industrial production index showing negative growth early in 2023 but ended with an increase of approximately 1 per cent for the year. Monetary policy was loosened throughout the year, with bank credit growing by 13.5 per cent overall and 1.7 per cent in the last 20 days of 2023.

Challenges and Prospects

Vietnam’s economy suffered from delayed public investments, electricity shortages, and a declining domestic private sector in the last two years. Looking ahead to 2024, economic growth is expected to be in the range of 5.5–6 per cent, but the country faces uncertainties due to geopolitical tensions and global economic conditions.

Source : Getting Vietnam’s economic growth back on track

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