China set to suffer from turmoil in the Middle East, but it stands to benefit long term

China condemned the US-Israeli attacks on Iran as a UN violation and pledged support through its BeiDou system. The conflict could disrupt its oil imports and affect geopolitical relationships.

China has responded to the joint US-Israeli attacks on Iran with strong diplomatic condemnation. In an article published on March 1, China’s state-run Xinhua news agency called the attacks a “flagrant violation” of the purposes and principles of the UN charter. The same article called the intervention a departure from “fundamental norms of international relations”.

This reaction resembled China’s response to the US capture of the former Venezuelan leader, Nicolás Maduro, in early January. At that time, Chinese officials condemned what they described as a violation of international law. The Chinese foreign minister, Wang Yi, warned that no country should act as a “world policeman” or “claim itself to be an international judge”.

Beyond diplomatic condemnation, China’s most significant contribution to the conflict in Iran so far has come through its satellite navigation system, BeiDou. In recent years, BeiDou has emerged as a possible alternative to the dominant Global Positioning System (GPS), which is owned and controlled by the US government.

During the 12-day war between Iran and Israel in 2025, widespread GPS jamming caused significant disruption to Iranian civilian and military systems. Deactivating GPS and switching to BeiDou has thus given Iran’s military more strategic depth. It has done so by, for example, enabling better monitoring of American military assets.

The conflict in Iran is likely to lead to several issues for China. Iran is a key source of oil for the Chinese government, exporting more than 520 million barrels of crude oil to China in 2025. Only Saudi Arabia supplied China with more oil than Iran that year.

What effect the conflict ultimately has on Iranian oil exports remains to be seen. But it is already causing significant disruption to the strait of Hormuz, the main route connecting Iranian ports in the Persian gulf and also some of the Gulf region’s other major oil suppliers to the open ocean.

At the same time, the perceived weakness of China in failing to respond to the conflict proactively may make some states cautious about pursuing a closer relationship with Beijing. Some countries, particularly in Latin America, have already looked to address their overreliance on China over the past year following pressure and threats from the US government.

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