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Trade

Vietnam climbs the chip value chain

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Employees make their way to work at the Samsung factory in Thai Nguyen province, north of Hanoi, Vietnam, 13 October 2016 (PHOTO: Nguyen Huy Kham via Reuters Connect).

Authors: Phan Le and Hai Thanh Nguyen, CIEM

The CEO of Samsung Electronics met with Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh and announced a US$850 million investment to manufacture semiconductor components in Thai Nguyen province on 5 August 2022.

The investment will make Vietnam one of only four countries — alongside South Korea, China and the United States — that produce semiconductors for the world’s largest memory chipmaker. Vietnam’s selection over more developed locations speaks volumes about the country’s rising importance in the semiconductor value chain.

Vietnam is not a newcomer to the semiconductor industry. The country’s first semiconductor plant, Z181, was established in 1979 to produce and export semiconductor components to the Eastern Bloc during the Cold War. The collapse of the Soviet Union and the ensuing trade embargo put an end to the country’s first attempt at developing semiconductor capability.

Yet the desire to enter the global semiconductor value chain lives on. For Vietnamese leaders, semiconductors represent both economic opportunities and national security interests. Entry into the semiconductor value chain means tapping into a global market forecasted to reach US$1.4 trillion by 2029 with a 12 per cent compounded annual growth rate. It also strengthens local skills and expertise, fosters the development of associated high-tech industries and raises the domestic value-added in electronics production.

Semiconductors are also a matter of national security. Dependence on imported chips makes the country’s critical infrastructure vulnerable to supply chain disruptions and hidden malware risks. The sweeping US chip export ban on China raises concerns in Vietnam as to whether its political differences from the West may lead to a similar fate in the future.

Hanoi has adopted a two-pronged strategy to reduce its vulnerability to these external threats. It maintains diplomatic neutrality amid geopolitical conflicts while gradually strengthening domestic capability in all three stages of the semiconductor value chain — chip design, front-end fabrication and back-end assembly and testing.

Vietnam’s industrial and technology policies have always granted the highest incentives for high-tech projects, including corporate income tax reduction and sales tax and land rent exemption. In 2020, as tech firms continued to exit China, Vietnam established a special working group to court high-tech investments by offering customised incentives beyond those specified by existing laws. Different Vietnamese prime ministers have met with executives of global tech giants to encourage investment in semiconductors.

Generous incentives are not the only reason multinationals are pouring billions of dollars into Vietnam’s semiconductor ecosystem. One advantage of Vietnam over its regional neighbours is its pool of young engineering talent at a relatively lower cost. Over 40 per cent of Vietnamese college and university graduates are majoring in science and engineering, and Vietnam has been among the top 10 countries with the most engineering graduates.

As the risks of putting all one’s eggs in the China basket increase, semiconductor companies find Vietnam a promising option for their China Plus One strategy. The country’s northern manufacturing cluster is only a 12-hour drive away from Shenzhen, China’s manufacturing hub. That ensures minimal supply chain disruptions for those looking to diversify.

Vietnam also boasts one of the most open economies in the world, with 15 free trade agreements, an ever-improving business environment and a relatively stable government with clear socio-economic development plans. The country’s geopolitical neutrality is another plus for tech companies searching for a low-risk location to produce and export.

Vietnam’s semiconductor scene is evolving quickly across all stages of the value chain. Synopsys — a leader in chip design software — is shifting its investment and engineering training from China to Vietnam. The South Korean tech giant, Amkor Technology, signed a deal in 2021 to establish a US$1.6 billion semiconductor manufacturing plant in Bac Ninh province.

Intel recently channelled an additional US$475 million into its assembly and test plant in Vietnam that produces core processors. Local tech corporations have similarly launched their own lines of low-end semiconductors for a wide range of applications. Such projects are laying the foundation for even more investments to come.

The next step for Vietnam is to go beyond attracting…

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Trade

Fixing fragmentation in the settlement of international trade disputes

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Fragmentation in global trade due to the lack of development in multilateral trade rules at the WTO has led to an increase in FTAs. The Appellate Body impasse has further exacerbated fragmentation, requiring a multilateral approach for reform.

Fragmentation in Global Trade

Fragmentation in global trade is not new. With the slow development of multilateral trade rules at the World Trade Organization (WTO), governments have turned to free trade agreements (FTAs). As of 2023, almost 600 bilateral and regional trade agreements have been notified to the WTO, leading to growing fragmentation in trade rules, business activities, and international relations. But until recently, trade dispute settlements have predominantly remained within the WTO.

Challenges with WTO Dispute Settlement

The demise of the Appellate Body increased fragmentation in both the interpretation and enforcement of trade law. A small number of WTO Members created the Multi-Party Interim Appeal Arbitration Arrangement (MPIA) as a temporary solution, but in its current form, it cannot properly address fragmentation. Since its creation in 2020, the MPIA has only attracted 26 parties, and its rulings have not been consistent with previous decisions made by the Appellate Body, rendering WTO case law increasingly fragmented.

The Path Forward for Global Trade

Maintaining the integrity and predictability of the global trading system while reducing fragmentation requires restoring the WTO’s authority. At the 12th WTO Ministerial Conference in 2022, governments agreed to re-establish a functional dispute settlement system by 2024. Reaching a consensus will be difficult, and negotiations will take time. A critical mass-based, open plurilateral approach provides a viable alternative way to reform the appellate mechanism, as WTO Members are committed to reforming the dispute settlement system.

Source : Fixing fragmentation in the settlement of international trade disputes

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WTO ministerial trading in low expectations and high stakes

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The WTO’s 13th Ministerial Conference is set to focus on e-commerce transparency, investment facilitation, and admitting new members. However, progress may be hindered by disputes, especially regarding fisheries subsidies.

The World Trade Organisation’s 13th Ministerial Conference

The World Trade Organisation’s (WTO) 13th Ministerial Conference is set to take place in Abu Dhabi on 26–29 February, with expectations of deals on electronic commerce transparency, investment facilitation for development, and the admission of Timor Leste and the Comoros as WTO members. Despite these positive developments, the expectations are relatively modest compared to promises made at the 12th Ministerial Conference, which included addressing fisheries subsidies and restoring a fully functioning dispute settlement mechanism by 2024.

Challenges in Dispute Settlement and Agricultural Trade Reform

However, challenges remain, especially in the deadlock of dispute settlement since December 2019 due to a US veto on the appointment of Appellate Body judges. Progress in restoring the dispute settlement mechanism has stalled, and discord continues regarding India’s grain stockholding policy as a potential illegal subsidy. Restoring a fully functioning dispute settlement mechanism hinges on addressing US concerns about perceived bias against trade remedies in relation to China’s state subsidies.

Geopolitical Tensions and the Future of Trade Relations

The likelihood of reaching agreements amid geopolitical tensions between Western democracies and China appears slim, with issues surrounding subsidies and global supply chains causing rifts in trade relations. As nations focus on self-reliance within the global value chain, opportunities for trading face obstacles. Advocacy for open markets and addressing protectionist sentiments remains crucial for fostering resilience to external shocks and promoting economic growth.

Source : WTO ministerial trading in low expectations and high stakes

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Getting Vietnam’s economic growth back on track

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Vietnam’s economy grew 8% in 2022 but slowed in 2023 due to falling exports and delays in public investments. The economy’s future depends on structural reforms and reducing dependency on foreign investment.

Vietnam’s Economic Roller Coaster

After emerging from COVID-19 with an 8 per cent annual growth rate, Vietnam’s economy took a downturn in the first half of 2023. The drop was attributed to falling exports due to monetary tightening in developed countries and a slow post-pandemic recovery in China.

Trade Performance and Monetary Policy

Exports were down 12 per cent on-year, with the industrial production index showing negative growth early in 2023 but ended with an increase of approximately 1 per cent for the year. Monetary policy was loosened throughout the year, with bank credit growing by 13.5 per cent overall and 1.7 per cent in the last 20 days of 2023.

Challenges and Prospects

Vietnam’s economy suffered from delayed public investments, electricity shortages, and a declining domestic private sector in the last two years. Looking ahead to 2024, economic growth is expected to be in the range of 5.5–6 per cent, but the country faces uncertainties due to geopolitical tensions and global economic conditions.

Source : Getting Vietnam’s economic growth back on track

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