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Trade

Building China’s Belt and Road Initiative BIT by BIT

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Containers are seen at the Yangshan Deep-Water Port, Shanghai, China 19 October 2020. (Photo: Reuters/Aly Song)

Authors: Zachary Haver, Washington DC and Wendy Leutert, Indiana University

China is actively promoting international investment, trade and infrastructure connectivity through Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s hallmark Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Once wary of international investment law as a threat to domestic sovereignty, Beijing is embracing bilateral investment treaties (BITs) to protect investments associated with the BRI.

As of October 2020, 138 countries have signed agreements to participate in the BRI. These bilateral accords may identify specific areas of cooperation or simply express a shared intent to collaborate. According to the World Bank, the 71 economies along key BRI transport corridors, including China, account for 35 per cent of global foreign direct investment, 40 per cent of global merchandise exports and 60 per cent of the world’s population.

BITs provide the primary legal framework governing Chinese investments under the BRI. In these treaties, two states agree to grant certain protections to the investments of individuals and corporations of the other. One of the most important is investors’ access to international arbitration in the event of disputes with host states, such as disputes over the expropriation of a foreign investor’s assets. In the absence of a comprehensive multilateral regime, BITs are the most important source of law governing international investments and investor-state disputes,.

China has signed a total of 145 BITs with 130 countries as of October 2020, second only to Germany. In total, 100 countries have signed both a BIT and a BRI cooperation document with Beijing. These 100 countries constitute 77 per cent of total BIT treaty signatories and 72 per cent of all BRI countries. BITs therefore define the legal playing field for potential investor–state disputes in nearly three-quarters of the countries participating in the BRI.

Recent support from Chinese government bodies suggests that BITs will remain the most important legal instrument protecting overseas investments in the context of the BRI. For example, in 2015, the Supreme People’s Court issued guidance in which it endorsed international arbitration for the resolution of BRI-related disputes.

BITs protect Chinese firms that operate, own and invest in the infrastructure projects that constitute most BRI commercial activity. Through build-operate-transfer arrangements or concessions, Chinese companies construct and operate infrastructure projects for fixed periods, typically for 20–30 years or longer. One example is China Merchants Port Holdings’ terminal at Sri Lanka’s Port of Colombo. Under a 35-year agreement, China Merchants Port Holdings first built and now operates Colombo International Terminals as a joint venture with the Sri Lanka Port Authority.

BITs also apply to Chinese firms involved in other types of project arrangements. They cover build-own-operate projects, where companies build, own and operate infrastructure for an indefinite period. Shenzhen Energy’s Sunon Asogli Power Plant in Ghana is one example. BITs also apply to overseas projects in which a Chinese firm holds an equity share, including the Kribi Deep-Sea Port that China Harbour Engineering Company is developing in Cameroon.

BITs do not cover infrastructure projects that Chinese firms simply build as contractors. For these works, Chinese companies are typically only responsible for engineering, procurement and construction. But project types in which Chinese firms act as owners, operators and investors are increasingly common. This makes investor protections more important than ever for Chinese companies.

Specific BIT provisions — or lack thereof — also benefit Chinese companies at the expense of host states. For instance, the majority of China’s BITs lack security exceptions, which can waive a state’s duty to comply with part or all of its treaty obligations when its essential national security interests are at risk. Security exceptions allow states to balance their security and economic interests within the BIT legal framework. Without security exceptions, China’s treaty partners could struggle to legally justify actions taken against Chinese firms on the basis of national security.

Although China is embracing BITs to protect its BRI investments, important concerns remain. The definition of ‘investor’ in many BITs does not distinguish between state-owned and private entities, and the issue remains ambiguous due to a lack of related international arbitration. Two 2017 decisions involving Chinese…

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Fixing fragmentation in the settlement of international trade disputes

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Fragmentation in global trade due to the lack of development in multilateral trade rules at the WTO has led to an increase in FTAs. The Appellate Body impasse has further exacerbated fragmentation, requiring a multilateral approach for reform.

Fragmentation in Global Trade

Fragmentation in global trade is not new. With the slow development of multilateral trade rules at the World Trade Organization (WTO), governments have turned to free trade agreements (FTAs). As of 2023, almost 600 bilateral and regional trade agreements have been notified to the WTO, leading to growing fragmentation in trade rules, business activities, and international relations. But until recently, trade dispute settlements have predominantly remained within the WTO.

Challenges with WTO Dispute Settlement

The demise of the Appellate Body increased fragmentation in both the interpretation and enforcement of trade law. A small number of WTO Members created the Multi-Party Interim Appeal Arbitration Arrangement (MPIA) as a temporary solution, but in its current form, it cannot properly address fragmentation. Since its creation in 2020, the MPIA has only attracted 26 parties, and its rulings have not been consistent with previous decisions made by the Appellate Body, rendering WTO case law increasingly fragmented.

The Path Forward for Global Trade

Maintaining the integrity and predictability of the global trading system while reducing fragmentation requires restoring the WTO’s authority. At the 12th WTO Ministerial Conference in 2022, governments agreed to re-establish a functional dispute settlement system by 2024. Reaching a consensus will be difficult, and negotiations will take time. A critical mass-based, open plurilateral approach provides a viable alternative way to reform the appellate mechanism, as WTO Members are committed to reforming the dispute settlement system.

Source : Fixing fragmentation in the settlement of international trade disputes

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WTO ministerial trading in low expectations and high stakes

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The WTO’s 13th Ministerial Conference is set to focus on e-commerce transparency, investment facilitation, and admitting new members. However, progress may be hindered by disputes, especially regarding fisheries subsidies.

The World Trade Organisation’s 13th Ministerial Conference

The World Trade Organisation’s (WTO) 13th Ministerial Conference is set to take place in Abu Dhabi on 26–29 February, with expectations of deals on electronic commerce transparency, investment facilitation for development, and the admission of Timor Leste and the Comoros as WTO members. Despite these positive developments, the expectations are relatively modest compared to promises made at the 12th Ministerial Conference, which included addressing fisheries subsidies and restoring a fully functioning dispute settlement mechanism by 2024.

Challenges in Dispute Settlement and Agricultural Trade Reform

However, challenges remain, especially in the deadlock of dispute settlement since December 2019 due to a US veto on the appointment of Appellate Body judges. Progress in restoring the dispute settlement mechanism has stalled, and discord continues regarding India’s grain stockholding policy as a potential illegal subsidy. Restoring a fully functioning dispute settlement mechanism hinges on addressing US concerns about perceived bias against trade remedies in relation to China’s state subsidies.

Geopolitical Tensions and the Future of Trade Relations

The likelihood of reaching agreements amid geopolitical tensions between Western democracies and China appears slim, with issues surrounding subsidies and global supply chains causing rifts in trade relations. As nations focus on self-reliance within the global value chain, opportunities for trading face obstacles. Advocacy for open markets and addressing protectionist sentiments remains crucial for fostering resilience to external shocks and promoting economic growth.

Source : WTO ministerial trading in low expectations and high stakes

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Getting Vietnam’s economic growth back on track

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Vietnam’s economy grew 8% in 2022 but slowed in 2023 due to falling exports and delays in public investments. The economy’s future depends on structural reforms and reducing dependency on foreign investment.

Vietnam’s Economic Roller Coaster

After emerging from COVID-19 with an 8 per cent annual growth rate, Vietnam’s economy took a downturn in the first half of 2023. The drop was attributed to falling exports due to monetary tightening in developed countries and a slow post-pandemic recovery in China.

Trade Performance and Monetary Policy

Exports were down 12 per cent on-year, with the industrial production index showing negative growth early in 2023 but ended with an increase of approximately 1 per cent for the year. Monetary policy was loosened throughout the year, with bank credit growing by 13.5 per cent overall and 1.7 per cent in the last 20 days of 2023.

Challenges and Prospects

Vietnam’s economy suffered from delayed public investments, electricity shortages, and a declining domestic private sector in the last two years. Looking ahead to 2024, economic growth is expected to be in the range of 5.5–6 per cent, but the country faces uncertainties due to geopolitical tensions and global economic conditions.

Source : Getting Vietnam’s economic growth back on track

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