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Trade

The resurrection of state capitalism in China

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Xiao Yaqing, chairman of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) attends a news conference on the sidelines of the National People

Authors: Weihuan Zhou, UNSW, Henry Gao, SMU and Xue Bai, UNSW

While state sectors remain significant in the economies of many countries, China’s state-owned enterprises (SOEs) continue to generate the most controversy. Key commentators have noted that Chinese state capitalism has continued to strengthen since the launch of a new stage of SOE reforms in the Third Plenum of the 18th Party Congress in November 2013. This has provoked discussions on the need for revamping the rules of the WTO, which is now a central issue in the ongoing US–China trade war and subsequent negotiations.

As an integral element of China’s economic reforms launched in 1979, SOE reform has come a long way. While many SOEs were on the brink of bankruptcy at the beginning of the reform period, in the years since they have become bigger, stronger and more profitable. Many SOEs are now leading players in key sectors and rank highly not only domestically, but also in the international league tables.

Before the current round of reform began in 2013, a number of achievements were made in previous periods of reform. First, operational autonomy was granted to SOEs from 1979–1986, followed by delegation of authority to managers from 1987–1992. SOE privatisation, corporatisation and modernisation occurred from 1993–2002. The establishment of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) in 2003 preserved and expanded state assets and spurred the selection of ‘national champions’ out of the large pool of SOEs, especially in strategic sectors.

By early 2013, both the number and market share of SOEs had shrunk while the private sector had grown at a phenomenal pace. At the same time, however, the national champions became more significant and influential in the economy.

The current round of reform since 2013 appears to be designed with competing objectives in mind:

On the one hand, Chinese leaders made commitments to deepen SOE reform through a host of measures, including better classification of SOEs, further improvement of corporate management and governance, ownership diversification, restructuring and reorganisation. These measures aimed at further integrating SOEs into a competitive market, with only a limited number of them serving government or public functions.

On the other hand, the restructuring and reorganisation boosted the power of many SOEs, which are among some of the world’s largest companies. The mixed ownership reform has been implemented in a way that promotes state capital investment in those private entities in strategic industries, through the backing of giant SOEs emerging from the restructuring and reorganisation. Moreover, the corporate governance reform significantly strengthened the role of the Party in SOEs through the creation of Party committees with major decision-making power in the boards.

This is a reform program heading in a direction that strengthens rather than weakens state capitalism.

Tighter control of SOEs by the Party-state is not necessarily problematic, at least not under the rules of the WTO. However, combined with other factors, such control could and often does result in anti-competitive effects, as SOEs may not behave like private firms but pursue political or public policy goals as directed by the Party-state.

These problems are further exacerbated by China’s unique economic model which treats SOEs as the primary economic agents of the state and the main instrument for implementing industrial and other national policies. Frequently, large SOEs that are already market leaders individually are merged by the state to create behemoth national champions, creating acute antitrust concerns. While China’s Anti-Monopoly Law is supposed to be administered equally between SOEs and private firms, more favourable standards are applied to SOEs, which often receive unconditional clearance by the merger review agency. For example, when assessing the concentration of SOEs, national interests and national industrial policies are also considered, allowing for more leniency in merger reviews.

While SOE mergers are often motivated in the national interest rather than the desire for market dominance, other firms in the same sectors often become collateral damage in such ambitious campaigns and the consequences are well documented. They also raise difficult problems for foreign competition authorities, which have to grapple with issues such as whether Chinese SOEs should be treated as a single entity controlled by the Party-state. In addition to competitive concerns, SOEs…

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Trade

Fixing fragmentation in the settlement of international trade disputes

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Fragmentation in global trade due to the lack of development in multilateral trade rules at the WTO has led to an increase in FTAs. The Appellate Body impasse has further exacerbated fragmentation, requiring a multilateral approach for reform.

Fragmentation in Global Trade

Fragmentation in global trade is not new. With the slow development of multilateral trade rules at the World Trade Organization (WTO), governments have turned to free trade agreements (FTAs). As of 2023, almost 600 bilateral and regional trade agreements have been notified to the WTO, leading to growing fragmentation in trade rules, business activities, and international relations. But until recently, trade dispute settlements have predominantly remained within the WTO.

Challenges with WTO Dispute Settlement

The demise of the Appellate Body increased fragmentation in both the interpretation and enforcement of trade law. A small number of WTO Members created the Multi-Party Interim Appeal Arbitration Arrangement (MPIA) as a temporary solution, but in its current form, it cannot properly address fragmentation. Since its creation in 2020, the MPIA has only attracted 26 parties, and its rulings have not been consistent with previous decisions made by the Appellate Body, rendering WTO case law increasingly fragmented.

The Path Forward for Global Trade

Maintaining the integrity and predictability of the global trading system while reducing fragmentation requires restoring the WTO’s authority. At the 12th WTO Ministerial Conference in 2022, governments agreed to re-establish a functional dispute settlement system by 2024. Reaching a consensus will be difficult, and negotiations will take time. A critical mass-based, open plurilateral approach provides a viable alternative way to reform the appellate mechanism, as WTO Members are committed to reforming the dispute settlement system.

Source : Fixing fragmentation in the settlement of international trade disputes

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WTO ministerial trading in low expectations and high stakes

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The WTO’s 13th Ministerial Conference is set to focus on e-commerce transparency, investment facilitation, and admitting new members. However, progress may be hindered by disputes, especially regarding fisheries subsidies.

The World Trade Organisation’s 13th Ministerial Conference

The World Trade Organisation’s (WTO) 13th Ministerial Conference is set to take place in Abu Dhabi on 26–29 February, with expectations of deals on electronic commerce transparency, investment facilitation for development, and the admission of Timor Leste and the Comoros as WTO members. Despite these positive developments, the expectations are relatively modest compared to promises made at the 12th Ministerial Conference, which included addressing fisheries subsidies and restoring a fully functioning dispute settlement mechanism by 2024.

Challenges in Dispute Settlement and Agricultural Trade Reform

However, challenges remain, especially in the deadlock of dispute settlement since December 2019 due to a US veto on the appointment of Appellate Body judges. Progress in restoring the dispute settlement mechanism has stalled, and discord continues regarding India’s grain stockholding policy as a potential illegal subsidy. Restoring a fully functioning dispute settlement mechanism hinges on addressing US concerns about perceived bias against trade remedies in relation to China’s state subsidies.

Geopolitical Tensions and the Future of Trade Relations

The likelihood of reaching agreements amid geopolitical tensions between Western democracies and China appears slim, with issues surrounding subsidies and global supply chains causing rifts in trade relations. As nations focus on self-reliance within the global value chain, opportunities for trading face obstacles. Advocacy for open markets and addressing protectionist sentiments remains crucial for fostering resilience to external shocks and promoting economic growth.

Source : WTO ministerial trading in low expectations and high stakes

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Trade

Getting Vietnam’s economic growth back on track

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Vietnam’s economy grew 8% in 2022 but slowed in 2023 due to falling exports and delays in public investments. The economy’s future depends on structural reforms and reducing dependency on foreign investment.

Vietnam’s Economic Roller Coaster

After emerging from COVID-19 with an 8 per cent annual growth rate, Vietnam’s economy took a downturn in the first half of 2023. The drop was attributed to falling exports due to monetary tightening in developed countries and a slow post-pandemic recovery in China.

Trade Performance and Monetary Policy

Exports were down 12 per cent on-year, with the industrial production index showing negative growth early in 2023 but ended with an increase of approximately 1 per cent for the year. Monetary policy was loosened throughout the year, with bank credit growing by 13.5 per cent overall and 1.7 per cent in the last 20 days of 2023.

Challenges and Prospects

Vietnam’s economy suffered from delayed public investments, electricity shortages, and a declining domestic private sector in the last two years. Looking ahead to 2024, economic growth is expected to be in the range of 5.5–6 per cent, but the country faces uncertainties due to geopolitical tensions and global economic conditions.

Source : Getting Vietnam’s economic growth back on track

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