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China

China should complete its transition to a market economy (World Bank)

China should complete its transition to a market economy — through enterprise, land, labor, and financial sector reforms — strengthen its private sector, open its markets to greater competition and innovation, and ensure equality of opportunity to help achieve its goal of a new structure for economic growth.

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Shanghai Gesture by Camilla Davidsson

China should complete its transition to a market economy — through enterprise, land, labor, and financial sector reforms — strengthen its private sector, open its markets to greater competition and innovation, and ensure equality of opportunity to help achieve its goal of a new structure for economic growth.

These are some of the key findings of a joint research report by a team from the World Bank and the Development Research Center of China’s State Council, which lays out the case for a new development strategy for China to rebalance the role of government and market, private sector and society, to reach the goal of a high income country by 2030.

Shanghai Gesture by Camilla Davidsson

Shanghai Gesture by Camilla Davidsson

The report, “China 2030: Building a Modern, Harmonious, and Creative High-Income Society”, recommends steps to deal with the  risks facing China over the next 20 years, including the risk of a hard landing in the short term, as well as challenges posed by an ageing and shrinking workforce, rising inequality, environmental stresses, and external imbalances.

“China’s leaders have recognized that the country’s growth model, which has been so successful for the past 30 years, will need to be changed to accommodate new challenges,” said World Bank Group President Robert B. Zoellick. 

“The case for reform is compelling because China has now reached a turning point in its development path. Managing the transition from a middle income to a high-income country will prove challenging; add to this a global environment that will likely remain uncertain and volatile for the foreseeable future and the need for change assumes even greater importance.”

China has an opportunity to avoid the middle-income trap, promote inclusive growth, without further intruding on the environment, and continue its progress towards becoming a responsible stakeholder in the international economy,” he said.

The report lays out six strategic directions for China’s future: completing the transition to a market economy; accelerating the pace of open innovation; going “green” to transform environmental stresses into green growth as a driver for development; expanding opportunities and services such as health, education and access to jobs for all people; modernizing and strengthening its domestic fiscal system; and seeking mutually beneficial relations with the world by connecting China’s structural reforms to the changing international economy.

“Central to the report’s findings is the need for China to modernize its domestic financial base and move to a public financial system– at all levels of government — that’s transparent and accountable, overseen by fewer but stronger institutions, to help fund a changing economic, environmental, and social agenda,” Zoellick said.

“The reform agenda, with a stronger and more flexible financial sector, the promotion of innovation, and green growth as drivers of development, can lead to opportunities for creating new jobs and additional productivity within China as well as new opportunities for foreign firms.”

There is growing recognition, supported by the findings of the research report, that China’s growth will decline gradually in the years leading to 2030 as China reaches the limits of growth brought about by current technologies in its current economic structure. The report advocates Chinese policymakers should shift from a focus entirely on the quantity of growth to include the quality of growth as well.

The report makes the case for the government to redefine its role — to focus more on systems, rules and laws — to boost efficient production, promote competition, and reduce risks. It recommends redefining the roles of state-owned enterprises and breaking up monopolies in certain industries, diversifying ownership, lowering entry barriers to private firms, and easing access to finance for small and medium enterprises.

Reforms should include commercializing the banking system, gradually removing interest rate controls, deepening the capital market and further developing independent and strong regulatory bodies to support the eventual integration of China’s financial sector within the global financial system. Financial reforms in the next two decades should be decisive, comprehensive and well coordinated, following a properly sequenced roadmap. A priority is to liberalize interest rates according to market principles.

On land reform, priority should be accorded to protect farmers’ rights over agricultural land, expanding land registration and rental rights. To assist with labor reforms, changes in the residency permit system – the hukou – are a priority. While progress on hukou reforms will depend on fiscal reforms that balance revenue raising and spending authorities across different levels of government, it should begin and be completed by 2030.

To accelerate the pace of innovation, the report advocates greater efforts to build countrywide research networks, steps to improve the quality of tertiary education and links with global networks, supported by a stronger rule of law and intellectual property rights enforcement. It says such an open innovation system would be a prerequisite to benefit fully from global innovation links.

For China to advance the “going green” development agenda, it will need to look at long term market incentives to encourage enterprises and households to go green. This should include more public investments, and the better design and enforcement of regulations to complement market incentives, such as taxes, fees, tradable permits and quotas, and eco-labeling. China can establish itself as a global green technology leader by implementing stringent and effective policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Stringent emissions reduction policies, such as carbon trading or carbon taxes, could spur innovation in green technologies.

To reverse rising inequality, the report says China will need to focus on a social protection system appropriate for China in 2030, with a special emphasis on the poor. It lays out the case for “flexicurity”. This can include reforms in pension and unemployment systems so workers have reasonable support in their old age or when jobless. This can ensure comprehensive coverage of pension insurance, especially for rural people and migrant workers in cities. The report also warns that extending the current level of urban services and social protection to rural residents and migrants — well over half the population — will pose a significant fiscal burden and should be implemented prudently.

To fund China’s priorities in the decades ahead, and to deal with external shocks, the report calls for further fiscal system reforms. These should include improving the efficiency of raising revenue and changing fiscal relations between different levels of government as well as strengthening the efficiency of public spending. There is untapped potential for revenues through higher taxes on energy consumption, taking dividends from state-owned enterprises, and levying taxes on personal incomes, motor vehicles, and property.

The report proposes a sequencing of reforms, as well as quick wins and actions to address short term risks. Support for reforms will be stronger if the plans are based on full participation throughout all levels of society. The biggest risk is that vested interests will try to thwart reforms.

As a key stakeholder on the global economy, China can consider how its structural reforms relate to rebalancing changes globally. China should support free trade and back a multilateral agreement on investment. China’s long-term interests lie in global free trade and a stable and efficient international financial and monetary system, relying on multilateral frameworks to help shape the global governance agenda.

China’s growing weight in world trade, the size of its economy and its role as the world’s largest creditor will make the internationalization of China’s renminbi inevitable. Acceptance of the RMB as a major global reserve currency will depend on the pace and success of financial sector reforms and opening of its external capital accounts.

For the full report please visit:www.worldbank.org/china

China

Trends and Future Prospects of Bilateral Direct Investment between China and Germany

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China and Germany experienced a decline in direct investment in 2023 due to global economic uncertainty and policy changes. Despite this, China remains an attractive destination for German FDI. Key industries like automotive and advanced manufacturing continue to draw investors, although FDI outflows from Germany to China decreased by 30% in the first three quarters of 2023. Despite this, the actual use of foreign capital from Germany to China increased by 21% in the same period according to MOFCOM. The Deutsche Bundesbank’s FDI data and MOFCOM’s actual use of foreign capital provide different perspectives on the investment trends between the two countries.


Direct investment between China and Germany declined in 2023, due to a range of factors from global economic uncertainty to policy changes. However, China remains an important destination for German foreign direct investment (FDI), and key industries in both countries continue to excite investors. We look at the latest direct investment data between Germany and China to analyze the latest trends and discuss key factors that could shape future business and commercial ties.

Direct investment between China and Germany has undergone profound changes over the past decade. An increasingly complex investment environment for companies in both countries has led to falling two-way FDI figures in the first three quarters of 2023, in stark contrast to positive trends seen in 2022.

At the same time, industries with high growth potential, such as automotive and advanced manufacturing, continue to attract German companies to China, and high levels of reinvested earnings suggest established firms are doubling down on their commitments in the Chinese market. In Germany, the potential for electric vehicle (EV) sales is buoying otherwise low investment among Chinese companies.

According to data from Deutsche Bundesbank, Germany’s central bank, total FDI outflows from Germany to China fell in the first three quarters of 2023, declining by 30 percent to a total of EUR 7.98 billion.

This is a marked reversal of trends from 2022, when FDI flows from Germany to China reached a record EUR 11.4 billion, up 14.7 percent year-on-year.

However, according to China’s Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM), the actual use of foreign capital from Germany to China increased by 21 percent year-on-year in the first eight months of 2023. The Deutsche Bundesbank’s FDI data, which follows standards set by the IMF, the OECD, and the European Central Bank (ECB), includes a broader scope of transactions within its direct investment data, including, broadly, direct investment positions, direct investment income flows, and direct investment financial flows.

Meanwhile, the actual use of foreign capital recorded by MOFCOM includes contracted foreign capital that has been concluded, including the registered and working capital paid by foreign investors, as well as the transaction consideration paid for the transferred equity of domestic investors.

This article is republished from China Briefing. Read the rest of the original article.

China Briefing is written and produced by Dezan Shira & Associates. The practice assists foreign investors into China and has done since 1992 through offices in Beijing, Tianjin, Dalian, Qingdao, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Ningbo, Suzhou, Guangzhou, Dongguan, Zhongshan, Shenzhen, and Hong Kong. Please contact the firm for assistance in China at china@dezshira.com.

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Manila blasts China’s ‘unprovoked aggression’ in latest South China Sea incident

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China’s coast guard on Saturday fired a water cannon at a Philippine supply boat in disputed waters in the South China Sea, causing “significant damages to the vessel” and injuring its crew, the Philippine coast guard said.

Manila was attempting to resupply troops stationed on a ship at the Second Thomas Shoal, known locally as Ayungin Shoal, when the Chinese coast guard and maritime militia “harassed, blocked, deployed water cannons, and executed dangerous maneuvers against the routine RoRe (rotation and resupply) mission,” said the Philippine National Task Force for the West Philippine Sea.

The West Philippine Sea is the part of the South China Sea that Manila claims as its jurisdiction.

The Chinese coast guard also set up “a floating barrier” to block access to shoal where Manila ran aground an old warship, BRP Sierra Madre, to serve as a military outpost.

The Philippine task force condemned China’s “unprovoked aggression, coercion, and dangerous maneuvers.”

Philippines’ RoRe missions have been regularly blocked by China’s coast guard, but this is the first time a barrier was set up near the shoal. 

The Philippine coast guard nevertheless claimed that the mission on Saturday was accomplished.

Potential consequences

The Second Thomas Shoal lies within the country’s exclusive economic zone where Manila holds sovereign rights. 

China, however, claims historic rights over most of the South China Sea, including the Spratly archipelago, which the shoal forms a part of.

A Chinese foreign ministry’s spokesperson on Saturday said the Philippine supply vessel “intruded” into the waters near the shoal, called Ren’ai Jiao in Chinese, “without permission from the Chinese government.”

“China coast guard took necessary measures at sea in accordance with law to safeguard China’s rights, firmly obstructed the Philippines’ vessels, and foiled the Philippines’ attempt,” the ministry said.

“If the Philippines insists on going its own way, China will continue to adopt resolute measures,” the spokesperson said, warning that Manila “should be prepared to bear all potential consequences.”

Chinese Maritime Militia vessels near the Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea, March 5, 2024. (Adrian Portugal/Reuters)

U.S. Ambassador to the Philippines MaryKay Carlson wrote on social media platform X that her country “stands with the Philippines” against China’s maneuvers.

Beijing’s “interference with the Philippines’ freedom of navigation violates international law and threatens a free and open Indo-Pacific,” she wrote.

Australian Ambassador to the Philippines Hae Kyong Yu also said that Canberra shares the Philippines’ “serious concerns about dangerous conduct by China’s vessels adjacent to Second Thomas Shoal.” 

“This is part of a pattern of deeply concerning behavior,” Yu wrote on X.

Edited by Jim Snyder.

Read the rest of this article here >>> Manila blasts China’s ‘unprovoked aggression’ in latest South China Sea incident

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Foreigners in China: 2024 Living and Working Guidelines

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China’s Ministry of Commerce released updated guidelines for foreign businesspersons living and working in China in 2024. The guidelines cover accommodations, visas, work permits, and emergency protocols. It also outlines responsibilities regarding social security premiums and individual income tax obligations. prompt registration for temporary accommodation is required upon arrival.


The updated 2024 guidelines for foreign businesspersons living and working in China, released by the country’s Ministry of Commerce, outline essential procedures and considerations covering accommodations, visas, work permits, and emergency protocols.

On January 25, 2024, China’s Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) released the latest version of the Guidelines for Foreign Businessmen to Live and Work in China (hereinafter referred to as the “guidelines”).

The document is divided into four main sections, labeled as:

Furthermore, the guidelines elucidate the regulatory framework governing foreign businessperson’s responsibilities concerning social security premiums and individual income tax obligations.

This article provides a comprehensive overview of the guidelines, delving into their significance and implications for foreign businesspersons in China.

Upon arrival in China, prompt registration for temporary accommodation is required.

If staying in a hotel, registration can be facilitated by the hotel staff upon presentation of a valid passport or international travel documents.

This article is republished from China Briefing. Read the rest of the original article.

China Briefing is written and produced by Dezan Shira & Associates. The practice assists foreign investors into China and has done since 1992 through offices in Beijing, Tianjin, Dalian, Qingdao, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Ningbo, Suzhou, Guangzhou, Dongguan, Zhongshan, Shenzhen, and Hong Kong. Please contact the firm for assistance in China at china@dezshira.com.

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