China
Australia’s war drum to nowhere on Taiwan
Author: Thomas Wilkins, University of Sydney
Recent comments made by Australian officials about Taiwan over the past few weeks are less statecraft and more reminiscent of a fictional account of the leadup to a Third World War.
During an ANZAC Day speech, the Secretary of the Australian Department of Home Affairs Mike Pezzullo warned that ‘in a world of perpetual tension and dread, the drums of war beat’. Australian Defence Minister Peter Dutton similarly mused that conflict in the Taiwan Strait should not be discounted, stressing the preparedness of the Australian Defence Force in the event of a potential regional conflict. Meanwhile, Assistant Defence Minister Andrew Hastie reminded military personnel that their ‘core business’ was the ‘application of lethal violence’.
These most recent comments come against a backdrop of Australian government statements and documents that consistently identify the Indo-Pacific as an arena of ‘greater strategic competition’ as the US–China rivalry gathers apace. Yet those very same comments predictably triggered another round of so-called ‘wolf-warrior diplomacy’ from Chinese officials and commentators.
Chinese Major General Jin Yinan decried Australia as ‘white supremacist’ for lending moral support to Taiwan. The Global Times, a mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party, claimed Australia was ‘sick’ and accused Canberra of ‘trying to muddy the waters on the Taiwan question’. It also warned that ‘if Australia uses force against China, China will definitely deal a heavy blow to Australia’. At a time when Washington has sought to engage Taiwan more closely, this was a clear warning to Canberra not to follow suit.
Australian politicians and strategic analysts need to prudently reflect on how best to manage the issue while considering the broader strategic context of a deteriorating regional security environment and fractious bilateral relations with Beijing. Yet Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison took things further after he appeared to confuse the one-China Policy with the ‘one country, two systems’ model in Hong Kong — a position he obstinately refused to correct.
Not only did Morrison’s comments emphatically contradict Australia’s official policy, but they also offended both sides of the political divide in Taiwan. After witnessing Hong Kong’s grim experience under the ‘one country, two systems’ model with the Chinese-backed national security law and subsequent crackdown on civil-society, Taiwan has come to categorically reject this formula with a new vigour. Morrison muddied the waters by sending out the wrong message on a highly sensitive issue for the region.
Observers should be alarmed at Prime Minister Morrison’s seeming incomprehension, especially given the stakes for regional stability and security. There is a consensus that any violent resolution of the Taiwan issue would be calamitous for the region, with Australian Chief of Defence Staff Angus Campbell declaring that the ‘future of China and Taiwan needs to be a future that is resolved peacefully’ and warning that any war would be ‘disastrous’ for all involved. This includes Australia, since any US military involvement would likely bring pressure upon Canberra to activate the ANZUS alliance treaty, and potentially drag in a range of US allies. The loss of life and economic costs would be catastrophic.
Still, there are ongoing questions about how Canberra can strike the right note on such a charged issue. While Australia is caught between principled support for a fellow democracy and the risks of supporting the United States and being entangled in an actual military crisis, it is difficult to see how Canberra’s recent tub-thumping rhetoric represents a coherent diplomatic posture.
Former Australian prime minister Kevin Rudd contends that ‘the public language of Morrison, Dutton and Pezzullo on China, Taiwan and the possibility of war in the last week serves zero national security purpose’. Strategic scholar and former secretary of the Australian Department of Defence Hugh White argues that ‘[Australia’s] best interests would be served by urging [US President Joe Biden] to be cautious, and by being cautious ourselves’.
Perhaps it is best for Canberra not to make too much ‘noise’. Australia cannot on its own substantially affect a resolution of the situation in the Taiwan Strait through diplomacy. In order to avoid a nightmare scenario in the Pacific, Australian politicians should calm down their rhetoric while scrupulously…
China
The Latest Updates on China’s Visa-Free Policies
China has fully reopened its borders, allowing international tourism to recover. Visa-free travel policies are reinstated, and visa fees for foreign travelers will be reduced by 25% from December 11, 2023, to December 31, 2024. China and Singapore are also pursuing a 30-day visa-free travel arrangement.
China has fully reopened its borders, promising recovery of international tourism and travel. Many of the visa-free travel policies that were in place prior to the pandemic have therefore come back into effect, enabling people from a wide range of countries to visit
UPDATE (December 8, 2023): On December 8, 2023, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs released the Notice on Temporary Reduction of Fees for Applying Visa to China. According to this notice, during the period from December 11, 2023, to December 31, 2024, China shall cut visa fees by 25 percent across the board for foreign travelers. For more details, please consult with your local Chinese embassy or consulate.
UPDATE (December 7, 2023): China and Singapore are seeking to establish a mutual 30-day visa-free travel arrangement to boost people exchanges between the two countries, according to Reuters. At the time of writing, no further details have been released regarding the timeline or the eligibility, requirement, and application procedures of this new arrangement. Click here for more information regarding this mutual 30-day visa-free travel between China and Singapore.
This article is republished from China Briefing. Read the rest of the original article.
China Briefing is written and produced by Dezan Shira & Associates. The practice assists foreign investors into China and has done since 1992 through offices in Beijing, Tianjin, Dalian, Qingdao, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Ningbo, Suzhou, Guangzhou, Dongguan, Zhongshan, Shenzhen, and Hong Kong. Please contact the firm for assistance in China at china@dezshira.com.
China
Analysis of UK Investments in China for 2023: Evaluating Deals, Values, M&A, and Investments
British Government underwent reshuffle with pro-China David Cameron as Foreign Minister. Possible mild rapprochement with Beijing. Analysis of UK investments in China this year reveals potential trends. Report includes unique Q1-Q3 data and predicts outlook for 2024.
By Chris Devonshire-Ellis & Henry Tillman
With a reshuffle in the British Government and ex-Prime Minister – and generally pro-China politician David Cameron now as the UK’s Foreign Minister, there have been early signs of a potential mild rapprochement in the British governments overall attitude towards Beijing.
But before people get carried away, we can look at what investments the UK has made into China this year – as investments made while anti-China politics have tended to be the norm are typically indicative of stronger trends. In this report I include unique data that has not previously been made public, and examine the Q1-Q3 investment trends to see what may lie ahead for 2024.
This article is republished from China Briefing. Read the rest of the original article.
China Briefing is written and produced by Dezan Shira & Associates. The practice assists foreign investors into China and has done since 1992 through offices in Beijing, Tianjin, Dalian, Qingdao, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Ningbo, Suzhou, Guangzhou, Dongguan, Zhongshan, Shenzhen, and Hong Kong. Please contact the firm for assistance in China at china@dezshira.com.
China
Ratings agency cuts China’s credit outlook
Financially strapped local governments and state-owned enterprises pose a risk to China’s future economic growth, the ratings agency Moody’s said today in a report downgrading the country’s credit outlook from stable to negative.
Growing evidence suggests that the central government will be required to shore up the debt-laden entities, creating “broad downside risks to China’s fiscal, economic and institutional strength,” Moody’s said.
Local governments are thought to have accumulated trillions of dollars of debt due to spending during the COVID pandemic and a loss of income due to a troubled real estate market.
Despite the challenges, Moody’s maintained China’s overall credit rating of A1, which it describes as low-risk though not the safest category of investment. Moody’s said the rating reflects its belief in the country’s “financial and institutional resources to manage the transition in an orderly fashion.”
“Its economy’s vast size and robust, albeit slowing, potential growth rate, support its high shock absorption capacity,” Moody’s said.
Even so, the outlook downgrade signals some concern about China’s future creditworthiness.
In a statement, China’s Foreign Ministry said it was disappointed in the ratings change and that Moody’s concerns about its growth and financial stability were “unnecessary.”
“In recent years, through the continuous efforts of relevant departments and local governments, China has established a system to prevent and resolve the risks of local government debt,” the ministry said. “The trend of disorderly and illegal borrowing by local governments has been initially curbed, and positive results have been achieved in the disposal of local government debt.”
Moody’s projects China’s annual growth rate will be 4% in 2024 and 2025 but average 3.8% from 2026 to 2030, at which time it might drop again to 3.5%.
Derek Scissors, the chief economist at China Beige Book, a firm that analyzes China’s economy for investors, said in an email that the downgrade was to be expected.
“It’s a recognition of long-standing conditions, not a new development,” said Scissors, who is also a senior fellow at the free-market think tank American Enterprise Institute in Washington. “I think growth will be faster than Moody’s thinks in 2024 and decelerate more than they think after that.”
Fees from local land sales account for nearly 40% of the revenue to local and regional governments. But China’s real-estate sector has been hit hard by overbuilding. One giant, Evergrande, defaulted under massive debt last year, triggering a broader real estate crisis.
Moody’s report said that “the downsizing of the property sector is a major structural shift in China’s growth drivers which is ongoing and could represent a more significant drag to China’s overall economic growth rate than currently assessed.”
Edited by Tara McKelvey
Read the rest of this article here >>> Ratings agency cuts China’s credit outlook
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- Policy failure with Italian characteristics?
- Analysis of UK Investments in China for 2023: Evaluating Deals, Values, M&A, and Investments
- Ratings agency cuts China’s credit outlook
- Balancing China’s labour migration through education
- Annual Confirmation for China IIT Special Additional Deductions to Commence on December 1st
