China
Trump risks pushing Iran into China’s orbit
Author: Simon Theobald, ANU
A downed drone, attacks on oil tankers, and calls for oblivion by US President Donald Trump — Iran and the United States are closer to war than at any other time since the inception of the Islamic Republic. But it is China that looks set to benefit as Iran searches for more regional partners in response.
Attempts to mitigate conflict are being spearheaded by European signatories to the Iran nuclear deal (the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action or JCPOA), who remain desperate to keep Iran in the deal even as they struggle to find routes around US sanctions. Russia promises moral support to Iran, if little in the way of material backing. The other signatory, China, has remained relatively quiet over the past few weeks, but the question remains: what does the growing risk of conflagration between the United States and Iran mean for China, and what — if anything — can Beijing do about it?
Iran lies at the heart of Beijing’s geostrategic vision for the 21st century. The Belt and Road Initiative, as it is currently planned, runs through a nearly 2000 kilometre stretch of Iranian territory, linking Central Asia, West Asia, and Eastern China. Chinese infrastructure projects are dotted across Iran, from major programs like the development of the South Pars gas field to more minor projects like public transport schemes in regional cities. Iranian bazaars are awash with Chinese goods.
And even as restrictive US sanctions are reducing Iran’s capacity to sell petrochemical resources, China quietly continues to buy Iranian oil, albeit in reduced quantities and with little public fanfare.
And yet, despite the relative importance of Iran in China’s grand plans for West Asia, Beijing has limited room to manoeuvre. The relationship with the United States — for all its problems including the ongoing trade war — is simply far too important to sacrifice on the altar of a relatively small player in China’s economy like Iran. China is also deepening trade ties with other regional powers — notably Israel and Saudi Arabia, two of Iran’s local arch nemeses and staunch US allies.
It is not surprising then that the extent of Beijing’s response to the shooting down of the Global Hawk drone was to call for ‘restraint’, reiterating China’s ongoing commitment to the JCPOA and to fret about the danger of ‘opening Pandora’s box’.
If the unthinkable did happen, what would it look like and what could Beijing do? At this stage, the most likely pattern of any hostilities between Iran and the United States would be a surgical strike on Iranian defence capabilities — a move that was apparently confirmed before being abruptly called off at the last minute. Despite the presence of hawks like John Bolton in his administration, Trump seems to have little interest in putting boots on the ground. Nor does the US public have any appetite for a major conflagration.
Of course, Iran would strike back — whether directly or through proxies — and there is always the risk of a conflict spiralling out of control. Iran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, a move with negative consequences for all countries shipping oil out of the Persian Gulf — although strangling such a vital route would probably result in a swift response from the United States.
That said, it is unlikely that the regime in Iran will be overthrown. Its system of theocratic governance is deeply entrenched and commands a level of popular support that, while certainly not universal, is more significant than the advocates of regime change in Washington imagine.
So what could Beijing do? As with the last few weeks, its role will likely to be to call for peace from the sidelines. Little more can be done. And yet, if anything, a strike on Iran is likely to push the wounded country ever further into the arms of China. Constricted by US sanctions, hurting from a potential air attack, and with limited effective help from Europe, the appetite for conciliation with the United States favoured by reformists in Tehran is like to evaporate — if it hasn’t already.
Forging the path ahead would then be handed over to the regime’s own conservatives and more hawkish factions who — always distrustful of the nuclear deal — will likely issue an ‘I told you so’ rebuke to reformists. With few alternatives, closer engagement with Iran’s more ‘reliable’ authoritarian partners like Russia and China is likely. Perhaps then the ultimate beneficiary of Trump’s hard-line stance against Iran will be China.
Simon Theobald is a…
China
New Report from Dezan Shira & Associates: China Takes the Lead in Emerging Asia Manufacturing Index 2024
China has been the world’s largest manufacturer for 14 years, producing one-third of global manufacturing output. In the Emerging Asia Manufacturing Index 2024, China ranks highest among eight emerging countries in the region. Challenges for these countries include global demand disparities affecting industrial output and export orders.
Known as the “World’s Factory”, China has held the title of the world’s largest manufacturer for 14 consecutive years, starting from 2010. Its factories churn out approximately one-third of the global manufacturing output, a testament to its industrial might and capacity.
China’s dominant role as the world’s sole manufacturing power is reaffirmed in Dezan Shira & Associates’ Emerging Asia Manufacturing Index 2024 report (“EAMI 2024”), in which China secures the top spot among eight emerging countries in the Asia-Pacific region. The other seven economies are India, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam, and Bangladesh.
The EAMI 2024 aims to assess the potential of these eight economies, navigate the risks, and pinpoint specific factors affecting the manufacturing landscape.
In this article, we delve into the key findings of the EAMI 2024 report and navigate China’s advantages and disadvantages in the manufacturing sector, placing them within the Asia-Pacific comparative context.
Emerging Asia countries face various challenges, especially in the current phase of increased volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity (VUCA). One notable challenge is the impact of global demand disparities on the manufacturing sector, affecting industrial output and export orders.
This article is republished from China Briefing. Read the rest of the original article.
China Briefing is written and produced by Dezan Shira & Associates. The practice assists foreign investors into China and has done since 1992 through offices in Beijing, Tianjin, Dalian, Qingdao, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Ningbo, Suzhou, Guangzhou, Dongguan, Zhongshan, Shenzhen, and Hong Kong. Please contact the firm for assistance in China at china@dezshira.com.
China
Is journalist Vicky Xu preparing to return to China?
Chinese social media influencers have recently claimed that prominent Chinese-born Australian journalist Vicky Xu had posted a message saying she planned to return to China.
There is no evidence for this. The source did not provide evidence to support the claim, and Xu herself later confirmed to AFCL that she has no such plans.
Currently working as an analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, or ASPI, Xu has previously written for both the Australian Broadcasting Corporation, or ABC, and The New York Times.
A Chinese language netizen on X initially claimed on March 31 that the changing geopolitical relations between Sydney and Beijing had caused Xu to become an expendable asset and that she had posted a message expressing a strong desire to return to China. An illegible, blurred photo of the supposed message accompanied the post.
This claim was retweeted by a widely followed influencer on the popular Chinese social media site Weibo one day later, who additionally commented that Xu was a “traitor” who had been abandoned by Australian media.
Following the publication of an ASPI article in 2021 which exposed forced labor conditions in Xinjiang co-authored by Xu, the journalist was labeled “morally bankrupt” and “anti-China” by the Chinese state owned media outlet Global Times and subjected to an influx of threatening messages and digital abuse, eventually forcing her to temporarily close several of her social media accounts.
AFCL found that neither Xu’s active X nor LinkedIn account has any mention of her supposed return to China, and received the following response from Xu herself about the rumor:
“I can confirm that I don’t have plans to go back to China. I think if I do go back I’ll most definitely be detained or imprisoned – so the only career I’ll be having is probably going to be prison labor or something like that, which wouldn’t be ideal.”
Neither a keyword search nor reverse image search on the photo attached to the original X post turned up any text from Xu supporting the netizens’ claims.
Translated by Shen Ke. Edited by Shen Ke and Malcolm Foster.
Asia Fact Check Lab (AFCL) was established to counter disinformation in today’s complex media environment. We publish fact-checks, media-watches and in-depth reports that aim to sharpen and deepen our readers’ understanding of current affairs and public issues. If you like our content, you can also follow us on Facebook, Instagram and X.
Read the rest of this article here >>> Is journalist Vicky Xu preparing to return to China?
China
Guide for Foreign Residents: Obtaining a Certificate of No Criminal Record in China
Foreign residents in China can request a criminal record check from their local security bureau. This certificate may be required for visa applications or job opportunities. Requirements and procedures vary by city. In Shanghai, foreigners must have lived there for 180 days with a valid visa to obtain the certificate.
Foreign residents living in China can request a criminal record check from the local security bureau in the city in which they have lived for at least 180 days. Certificates of no criminal record may be required for people leaving China, or those who are starting a new position in China and applying for a new visa or residence permit. Taking Shanghai as an example, we outline the requirements for obtaining a China criminal record check.
Securing a Certificate of No Criminal Record, often referred to as a criminal record or criminal background check, is a crucial step for various employment opportunities, as well as visa applications and residency permits in China. Nevertheless, navigating the process can be a daunting task due to bureaucratic procedures and language barriers.
In this article, we use Shanghai as an example to explore the essential information and steps required to successfully obtain a no-criminal record check. Requirements and procedures may differ in other cities and counties in China.
Note that foreigners who are not currently living in China and need a criminal record check to apply for a Chinese visa must obtain the certificate from their country of residence or nationality, and have it notarized by a Chinese embassy or consulate in that country.
Foreigners who have a valid residence permit and have lived in Shanghai for at least 180 days can request a criminal record check in the city. This means that the applicant will also need to currently have a work, study, or other form of visa or stay permit that allows them to live in China long-term.
If a foreigner has lived in another part of China and is planning to or has recently moved to Shanghai, they will need to request a criminal record check in the place where they previously spent at least 180 days.
There are two steps to obtaining a criminal record certificate in Shanghai: requesting the criminal record check from the Public Security Bureau (PSB) and getting the resulting Certificate of No Criminal Record notarized by an authorized notary agency.
This article is republished from China Briefing. Read the rest of the original article.
China Briefing is written and produced by Dezan Shira & Associates. The practice assists foreign investors into China and has done since 1992 through offices in Beijing, Tianjin, Dalian, Qingdao, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Ningbo, Suzhou, Guangzhou, Dongguan, Zhongshan, Shenzhen, and Hong Kong. Please contact the firm for assistance in China at china@dezshira.com.
- New Report from Dezan Shira & Associates: China Takes the Lead in Emerging Asia Manufacturing Index 2024
- Is journalist Vicky Xu preparing to return to China?
- Guide for Foreign Residents: Obtaining a Certificate of No Criminal Record in China
- China Unveils Plan to Upgrade Industrial Equipment
- China deepens engagement with new Indonesian president as top diplomat visits Jakarta
- New Publication: A Guide for Foreign Investors on Navigating China’s New Company Law
