China
Charting China’s Economy: The Fourth Quarter
China’s economy has bounced back. A return to accelerating growth in the fourth quarter breaks seven straight quarters of declining growth and draws a line under concerns that the world’s second largest economy is heading for a hard landing. To engineer the rebound, China’s government turned again to boosting credit and investment spending. But beneath the surface, there were also signs a rebalancing toward consumption may be underway. China Real Time charts it out: Growth in gross domestic product accelerated to 7.9% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, up from 7.4% in the third. The sequential growth rate showed signs of stabilization, with annualized quarter-on-quarter growth at 8.2%, down from 8.7% in the third quarter. Investment bank economists continued to calculate their own quarter-on-quarter growth rate. Wang Tao, China economist at UBS, saw an even more positive picture, with growth accelerating to 8.6% in the fourth quarter from 8.0% in the third. Real economy indicators like electricity consumption, one of the measures premier in waiting Li Keqiang said he uses to track growth, and steel production, also pointed to a strengthening economy. For the year as a whole, GDP growth of 7.8% was down from 9.3% in 2011 and the slowest rate of growth since 1999. Ma Jiantang, head of the National Bureau of Statistics, said there would be no return to the era of super rapid growth, and China should aim for something between 7% and 8%. One reason growth has slowed: a shrinking workforce. Mr. Ma said that China’s working age population shrank by 3.5 million in 2012. Off a total of more than 900 million that might not seem particularly alarming. But it signals an important turning point from an expanding to a contracting pool of workers. Key to the recovery – strong investment in the real estate and infrastructure sectors. After almost three years of strict controls, China’s real estate sector is showing signs of springing back to life. Sales had a strong quarter, with floor space sold rising 32% year-on-year in November. Sales for Vanke, China’s biggest developer by revenue, were also up more than 100% in December. Local government investment vehicles – the heroes of the 2009-10 stimulus, and the villain of subsequent concerns about bad debts and bridges to nowhere – were back on the stage. Investment in roads and railway picked up from lows earlier in the year. Manufacturers were less optimistic, with overcapacity and rising debts denting investment growth in the sector. Lan Shen, one of the China economists at Standard Chartered, notes that manufacturing investment decelerated to 16% year-on-year in December, down from 20.4% in November. But with more real estate and infrastructure construction underway, industrial output still rose to 10.3% year-on-year growth in December, up from 10.1% in November and a low of 8.9% in August. Zhang Jianping, a researcher tied to the powerful National Development and Reform Commission, was optimistic about the scope for more capital spending. “This year’s investment growth will be similar to 2012 as room for investment remain large due to the gap between western and eastern china, and between urban and rural areas,” she said. Labor markets tightened in the final quarter of the year. Data collected by the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security from local employment bureaus shows the ratio of job opportunities to job seekers rising to 1.08, up from 1.05 in the third quarter and matching the previous peak in the first quarter of the year. That supported continued rapid increases in wages. Average wages for migrant workers were up 11.8% year-on-year. Urban household disposable income rose 12.6% for the year – outpacing growth in nominal GDP. Higher wages supported robust growth in consumption. Electrical appliance retailer Gome, which faced tough times last year as a weak housing market put washing machine sales into a spin, said they thought the worst could be behind them. A property market uptick will have a positive impact on the appliance market, a spokesman for the company said. All of that raised hopes that the long awaited rebalancing of China’s economy toward a stronger role for household consumption might finally be underway. Janet Zhang at Dragonomics noted that consumption accounted for 4 percentage points of China’s growth in 2012, higher than the 3.9 percentage-point contribution from gross capital formation, with exports dragging the total down. Foreign demand showed some signs of recovering, with exports bouncing to 14% year-on-year growth in December, up from 2.8% in November. But with matching numbers from trade partners not quite so impressive, there were doubts about the accuracy of the data. Louis Kuijs, China economist at Royal Bank of Scotland, finds a discrepancy between Chinese data on exports to Hong Kong, and Hong Kong data on imports from China. Whilst not conclusive proof that China’s export data is off, Mr. Kuijs concludes it’s possible export growth in the final months of 2012 is out by as much as 4 percentage points. China’s imbalance with the rest of the world ticked back up. The trade surplus for 2012 grew to $232.8 billion, up from $157.8 billion in 2011. The politically contentious trade surplus with the U.S. rose to $219 billion from $202 billion. The yuan ended the year on a tear. After depreciating against the dollar for several months of the year, China’s currency hit an annualized month-on-month appreciation rate of about 3.5% in November and December. For the year as a whole, that was still only enough to leave the yuan up 0.2% at 6.2855 to the dollar. Inflation showed signs of rearing is piggy head, with consumer prices up 2.5% year-on-year in September, acceleration from 2% in November. Food prices, which were up 4.2%, were the main culprit. Analysts worried that the “pig cycle” – a term for the pattern of pig production, not a 4-H exhibit – had turned, threatening a further increase in prices over the year. With growth on track, partly thanks to rate cuts earlier in the year, the central bank kept policy on hold, with no moves on interest rates or the reserve requirement. Fiscal policy ended the year with its customary splurge, as spending departments emptied their coffers. Bank lending ended the year weak, with new bank loans surprising on the downside at 454.3 billion yuan in December. Non-bank lending accelerated, buoying growth but also raising concerns about a build up of credit in shadowy parts of China’s financial system and higher borrowing by local government financial vehicles. The consensus forecast for 2013 is for a further moderate acceleration, with growth coming in around 8% for the year. But much depends on the choices China’s new leaders make on credit growth, property tightening and the size of the fiscal deficit. Further clarity on all of those areas should come at the National People’s Congress in early March. – Tom Orlik, with contributions from MinJung Kim Like China Real Time on Facebook and follow us Twitter for the latest updates.
China’s economy has bounced back. A return to accelerating growth in the fourth quarter breaks seven straight quarters of declining growth and draws a line under concerns that the world’s second largest economy is heading for a hard landing. To engineer the rebound, China’s government turned again to boosting credit and investment spending. But beneath the surface, there were also signs a rebalancing toward consumption may be underway. China Real Time charts it out: Growth in gross domestic product accelerated to 7.9% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, up from 7.4% in the third. The sequential growth rate showed signs of stabilization, with annualized quarter-on-quarter growth at 8.2%, down from 8.7% in the third quarter. Investment bank economists continued to calculate their own quarter-on-quarter growth rate. Wang Tao, China economist at UBS, saw an even more positive picture, with growth accelerating to 8.6% in the fourth quarter from 8.0% in the third. Real economy indicators like electricity consumption, one of the measures premier in waiting Li Keqiang said he uses to track growth, and steel production, also pointed to a strengthening economy. For the year as a whole, GDP growth of 7.8% was down from 9.3% in 2011 and the slowest rate of growth since 1999. Ma Jiantang, head of the National Bureau of Statistics, said there would be no return to the era of super rapid growth, and China should aim for something between 7% and 8%. One reason growth has slowed: a shrinking workforce. Mr. Ma said that China’s working age population shrank by 3.5 million in 2012. Off a total of more than 900 million that might not seem particularly alarming. But it signals an important turning point from an expanding to a contracting pool of workers. Key to the recovery – strong investment in the real estate and infrastructure sectors. After almost three years of strict controls, China’s real estate sector is showing signs of springing back to life. Sales had a strong quarter, with floor space sold rising 32% year-on-year in November. Sales for Vanke, China’s biggest developer by revenue, were also up more than 100% in December. Local government investment vehicles – the heroes of the 2009-10 stimulus, and the villain of subsequent concerns about bad debts and bridges to nowhere – were back on the stage. Investment in roads and railway picked up from lows earlier in the year. Manufacturers were less optimistic, with overcapacity and rising debts denting investment growth in the sector. Lan Shen, one of the China economists at Standard Chartered, notes that manufacturing investment decelerated to 16% year-on-year in December, down from 20.4% in November. But with more real estate and infrastructure construction underway, industrial output still rose to 10.3% year-on-year growth in December, up from 10.1% in November and a low of 8.9% in August. Zhang Jianping, a researcher tied to the powerful National Development and Reform Commission, was optimistic about the scope for more capital spending. “This year’s investment growth will be similar to 2012 as room for investment remain large due to the gap between western and eastern china, and between urban and rural areas,” she said. Labor markets tightened in the final quarter of the year. Data collected by the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security from local employment bureaus shows the ratio of job opportunities to job seekers rising to 1.08, up from 1.05 in the third quarter and matching the previous peak in the first quarter of the year. That supported continued rapid increases in wages. Average wages for migrant workers were up 11.8% year-on-year. Urban household disposable income rose 12.6% for the year – outpacing growth in nominal GDP. Higher wages supported robust growth in consumption. Electrical appliance retailer Gome, which faced tough times last year as a weak housing market put washing machine sales into a spin, said they thought the worst could be behind them. A property market uptick will have a positive impact on the appliance market, a spokesman for the company said. All of that raised hopes that the long awaited rebalancing of China’s economy toward a stronger role for household consumption might finally be underway. Janet Zhang at Dragonomics noted that consumption accounted for 4 percentage points of China’s growth in 2012, higher than the 3.9 percentage-point contribution from gross capital formation, with exports dragging the total down. Foreign demand showed some signs of recovering, with exports bouncing to 14% year-on-year growth in December, up from 2.8% in November. But with matching numbers from trade partners not quite so impressive, there were doubts about the accuracy of the data. Louis Kuijs, China economist at Royal Bank of Scotland, finds a discrepancy between Chinese data on exports to Hong Kong, and Hong Kong data on imports from China. Whilst not conclusive proof that China’s export data is off, Mr. Kuijs concludes it’s possible export growth in the final months of 2012 is out by as much as 4 percentage points. China’s imbalance with the rest of the world ticked back up. The trade surplus for 2012 grew to $232.8 billion, up from $157.8 billion in 2011. The politically contentious trade surplus with the U.S. rose to $219 billion from $202 billion. The yuan ended the year on a tear. After depreciating against the dollar for several months of the year, China’s currency hit an annualized month-on-month appreciation rate of about 3.5% in November and December. For the year as a whole, that was still only enough to leave the yuan up 0.2% at 6.2855 to the dollar. Inflation showed signs of rearing is piggy head, with consumer prices up 2.5% year-on-year in September, acceleration from 2% in November. Food prices, which were up 4.2%, were the main culprit. Analysts worried that the “pig cycle” – a term for the pattern of pig production, not a 4-H exhibit – had turned, threatening a further increase in prices over the year. With growth on track, partly thanks to rate cuts earlier in the year, the central bank kept policy on hold, with no moves on interest rates or the reserve requirement. Fiscal policy ended the year with its customary splurge, as spending departments emptied their coffers. Bank lending ended the year weak, with new bank loans surprising on the downside at 454.3 billion yuan in December. Non-bank lending accelerated, buoying growth but also raising concerns about a build up of credit in shadowy parts of China’s financial system and higher borrowing by local government financial vehicles. The consensus forecast for 2013 is for a further moderate acceleration, with growth coming in around 8% for the year. But much depends on the choices China’s new leaders make on credit growth, property tightening and the size of the fiscal deficit. Further clarity on all of those areas should come at the National People’s Congress in early March. – Tom Orlik, with contributions from MinJung Kim Like China Real Time on Facebook and follow us Twitter for the latest updates.
See the rest here:
Charting China’s Economy: The Fourth Quarter
China
Guide for Foreign Residents: Obtaining a Certificate of No Criminal Record in China
Foreign residents in China can request a criminal record check from their local security bureau. This certificate may be required for visa applications or job opportunities. Requirements and procedures vary by city. In Shanghai, foreigners must have lived there for 180 days with a valid visa to obtain the certificate.
Foreign residents living in China can request a criminal record check from the local security bureau in the city in which they have lived for at least 180 days. Certificates of no criminal record may be required for people leaving China, or those who are starting a new position in China and applying for a new visa or residence permit. Taking Shanghai as an example, we outline the requirements for obtaining a China criminal record check.
Securing a Certificate of No Criminal Record, often referred to as a criminal record or criminal background check, is a crucial step for various employment opportunities, as well as visa applications and residency permits in China. Nevertheless, navigating the process can be a daunting task due to bureaucratic procedures and language barriers.
In this article, we use Shanghai as an example to explore the essential information and steps required to successfully obtain a no-criminal record check. Requirements and procedures may differ in other cities and counties in China.
Note that foreigners who are not currently living in China and need a criminal record check to apply for a Chinese visa must obtain the certificate from their country of residence or nationality, and have it notarized by a Chinese embassy or consulate in that country.
Foreigners who have a valid residence permit and have lived in Shanghai for at least 180 days can request a criminal record check in the city. This means that the applicant will also need to currently have a work, study, or other form of visa or stay permit that allows them to live in China long-term.
If a foreigner has lived in another part of China and is planning to or has recently moved to Shanghai, they will need to request a criminal record check in the place where they previously spent at least 180 days.
There are two steps to obtaining a criminal record certificate in Shanghai: requesting the criminal record check from the Public Security Bureau (PSB) and getting the resulting Certificate of No Criminal Record notarized by an authorized notary agency.
This article is republished from China Briefing. Read the rest of the original article.
China Briefing is written and produced by Dezan Shira & Associates. The practice assists foreign investors into China and has done since 1992 through offices in Beijing, Tianjin, Dalian, Qingdao, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Ningbo, Suzhou, Guangzhou, Dongguan, Zhongshan, Shenzhen, and Hong Kong. Please contact the firm for assistance in China at china@dezshira.com.
China
China Unveils Plan to Upgrade Industrial Equipment
China unveiled a comprehensive action plan for upgrading industrial equipment, with a focus on driving technological innovation and economic growth. The plan, released on April 9, 2024, aims to enhance competitiveness and sustainability within the manufacturing sector through extensive investment and regulatory support.
China announced an ambitious action plan for industrial equipment upgrading, which aims to drive technological innovation and economic growth through extensive investment and regulatory support.
On April 9, 2024, China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) and six other departments jointly released a notice introducing the Implementation Plan for Promoting Equipment Renewal in the Industrial Sector (hereafter referred to as the “action plan”).
Finalized earlier on March 23, 2024, this comprehensive action plan addresses critical issues related to technological innovation and economic development. It reflects China’s proactive stance in enhancing competitiveness and sustainability within its manufacturing sector. The initiative underscores the recognition of industrial equipment upgrading as a top policy priority.
The scope of China’s action plan to upgrade industrial equipment in manufacturing, is extensive, covering various aspects such as:
In line with China’s ambitious goals for industrial modernization and sustainable development, the action plan outlines several key objectives aimed at driving substantial advancements in the industrial sector by 2027.
These objectives encompass a wide range of areas, from increasing investment to enhancing digitalization and promoting innovation, including:
The objectives and key actions proposed in the action plan are summarized below.
This article is republished from China Briefing. Read the rest of the original article.
China Briefing is written and produced by Dezan Shira & Associates. The practice assists foreign investors into China and has done since 1992 through offices in Beijing, Tianjin, Dalian, Qingdao, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Ningbo, Suzhou, Guangzhou, Dongguan, Zhongshan, Shenzhen, and Hong Kong. Please contact the firm for assistance in China at china@dezshira.com.
China
China deepens engagement with new Indonesian president as top diplomat visits Jakarta
China’s top diplomat met the outgoing Indonesian president and his successor in Jakarta on Thursday, as Beijing deepened its engagement with future leader Prabowo Subianto, amid a competition for regional influence with the United States.
The meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi was part of a joint commitment to advance the partnership between the two countries, said Prabowo, who visited Beijing in early April after his landslide win in the February general election.
“It is a great honor for me to welcome him [Wang] today. Thank you for the kind reception I received in Beijing a few weeks ago,” Prabowo said, according to an Indonesian defense ministry statement.
Chinese President Xi Jinping had invited Prabowo to visit, and the latter accepting the invitation raised eyebrows in Indonesia because no president-elect had made a foreign visit such as this one without being sworn in. China is Indonesia’s largest trading partner.
Wang, too, mentioned Prabowo’s Beijing trip, according to the same statement.
“We really appreciate and welcome Defense Minister Prabowo’s visit to China,” he said.
“We are committed to continuing to increase bilateral cooperation with Indonesia, both in the defense sector and other fields such as economic, social and cultural.”
Wang is scheduled to go to East Nusa Tenggara province on Friday to attend the China-Indonesia High-Level Dialogue Cooperation Mechanism, a process to support more effective bilateral cooperation. His Jakarta stop was the first of a six-day tour that also includes Cambodia and Papua New Guinea.
Prabowo and Wang discussed cooperation in the defense industry and sector, with potential measures such as educational and training collaboration, as well as joint exercises, said Brig. Gen. Edwin Adrian Sumantha, spokesman at the Indonesian defense ministry.
In fact, the ministry statement said that “China is Indonesia’s close partner and has had close bilateral relations, especially in the defense sector, for a long time.”
Of course, China has also invested billions of U.S. dollars in infrastructure projects in Indonesia, including as part of Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative – the Jakarta-Bandung high-speed train, which began commercial operations in October 2023, is one such BRI project.
The two countries have drawn closer during outgoing President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo’s two terms, and Beijing would like that to continue as the U.S. tries to catch up with China’s gargantuan influence in Southeast Asia, analysts have said.
Indonesia, China call for ceasefire in Gaza
Both Indonesia and China shared the same position on Israel’s devastating attacks on Gaza, said Wang’s Indonesian counterpart, Retno Marsudi.
Israel’s air and ground strikes have killed more than 33,000 Palestinians following the Oct. 7 attack on the Jewish state by Palestinian militant group Hamas, which killed around 1,100 Israelis.
“We … have the same view regarding the importance of a ceasefire in Gaza and resolving the Palestinian problem fairly through two state solutions,” Retno told reporters in a joint press conference after meeting with Wang.
“Indonesia will support full Palestinian membership in the U.N. Middle East stability will not be realized without resolving the Palestinian issue.”
For his part, Wang slammed Washington for repeatedly vetoing resolutions calling for Israel to end the attacks on the Palestinian territory it occupies.
“The conflict in Gaza has lasted for half a year and caused a rare humanitarian tragedy in the 21st century,” Wang told the media at the same press conference, according to the Associated Press.
“The United Nations Security Council responded to the call of the international community and continued to review the resolution draft on the cease-fire in Gaza, but it was repeatedly vetoed by the United States.”
The conflict in the Middle East offered a strategic opportunity for China to further expand its influence in Southeast Asia, said Muhamad Arif, a lecturer in international relations at the University of Indonesia.
“China is trying to strengthen its position as a key player in the region,” Arief told BenarNews.
China could present an alternative approach to the conflict in Gaza, he said, which may find approval in Southeast Asia’s largest country, Indonesia, and other Mulism-majority states in the region, such as Malaysia and Brunei.
BenarNews is an RFA-affiliated online news organization.
Read the rest of this article here >>> China deepens engagement with new Indonesian president as top diplomat visits Jakarta
- Guide for Foreign Residents: Obtaining a Certificate of No Criminal Record in China
- China Unveils Plan to Upgrade Industrial Equipment
- China deepens engagement with new Indonesian president as top diplomat visits Jakarta
- New Publication: A Guide for Foreign Investors on Navigating China’s New Company Law
- Lingang New Area in Shanghai Opens First Cross-Border Data Service Center to Streamline Data Export Process
- A Concise Guide to the Verification Letter of Invitation Requirement in the China Visa Process
