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Vietnamese Dissident Gets 7-Year Jail Sentence

Cu Huy Ha Vu, a political activist from an elite Vietnamese family, has been sentenced to seven years in jail for allegedly attempting to subvert the Vietnamese government. Vu is charged with calling for the dissolution of Vietnam’s ruling Communist Party, advocating a multi-party political system, and characterizing the Vietnam War as a civil war. A judge said Vu’s published writings and interviews had “blackened, directly or indirectly” Vietnam’s ruling Communist Party.  He will serve three years of house arrest after his release. Analysts say Vu’s unusually aggressive legal activism challenged the party’s authority. They say his high-profile trial raises questions about the future of open dissent in Vietnam. Vu, a 53-year-old activist who studied law in France, was arrested in November as part of a government crackdown against activists and bloggers before a January Communist Party congress. Vu has defended government critics, and in 2009, he twice attempted to sue Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung in connection with a controversial bauxite mining project Vu claimed violated national laws. After his November arrest, Vietnam’s state-controlled press accused Vu of spreading “groundless, fabricated and distorted information” about the state’s leadership and management. Vietnamese activists are commonly charged with spreading anti-state propaganda, but unlike other activists, Vu hails from an elite family. His father Cu Huy Can was an advisor to Vietnamese national hero Ho Chi Minh, and according to a local media report, his uncle Xuan Dieu was a famous Vietnamese poet. An emeritus professor at Australia’s University of New South Wales, Carl Thayer, said before the trial that Vu’s elite roots put Vietnamese communists in an “awkward position.” “How do you challenge someone with that background and say he is really subversive to the state when he comes from a family of such loyalty? State prosecutors and security authorities will try to prevent that connection from being made,” said Thayer. Although Vietnam rejected Vu’s attempts to file lawsuits opposing the Bauxite mining project, Thayer said, Vu’s activism challenged the authority of Vietnamese law. On April 2, Human Rights Watch called for Vu’s release, noting he is one of Vietnam’s most prominent dissidents. Human Rights Watch Deputy Asia Director Phil Robertson told VOA Vu’s trial reflects internal Vietnamese politics and is not connected to recent popular uprisings in Africa and the Middle East. Hours before Vu’s conviction, Robertson said the trial may set the example of how Vietnam responds to criticism by members of its revolutionary elite. “Our assumption has got to be that they are trying to silence him, but I think they are probably looking beyond him also to other persons within the revolutionary elite who might want to raise their voice about what is happening, about corruption, malfeasance, abuse of human rights, land grabbing and the other things that are increasingly being raised by civil society groups from across the spectrum [in Vietnam],” he said. According to Human Rights Watch, Vu’s wide base of supporters includes workers, bloggers, catholic parishioners and land-rights activists.

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Cu Huy Ha Vu, a political activist from an elite Vietnamese family, has been sentenced to seven years in jail for allegedly attempting to subvert the Vietnamese government. Vu is charged with calling for the dissolution of Vietnam’s ruling Communist Party, advocating a multi-party political system, and characterizing the Vietnam War as a civil war. A judge said Vu’s published writings and interviews had “blackened, directly or indirectly” Vietnam’s ruling Communist Party.  He will serve three years of house arrest after his release. Analysts say Vu’s unusually aggressive legal activism challenged the party’s authority. They say his high-profile trial raises questions about the future of open dissent in Vietnam. Vu, a 53-year-old activist who studied law in France, was arrested in November as part of a government crackdown against activists and bloggers before a January Communist Party congress. Vu has defended government critics, and in 2009, he twice attempted to sue Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung in connection with a controversial bauxite mining project Vu claimed violated national laws. After his November arrest, Vietnam’s state-controlled press accused Vu of spreading “groundless, fabricated and distorted information” about the state’s leadership and management. Vietnamese activists are commonly charged with spreading anti-state propaganda, but unlike other activists, Vu hails from an elite family. His father Cu Huy Can was an advisor to Vietnamese national hero Ho Chi Minh, and according to a local media report, his uncle Xuan Dieu was a famous Vietnamese poet. An emeritus professor at Australia’s University of New South Wales, Carl Thayer, said before the trial that Vu’s elite roots put Vietnamese communists in an “awkward position.” “How do you challenge someone with that background and say he is really subversive to the state when he comes from a family of such loyalty? State prosecutors and security authorities will try to prevent that connection from being made,” said Thayer. Although Vietnam rejected Vu’s attempts to file lawsuits opposing the Bauxite mining project, Thayer said, Vu’s activism challenged the authority of Vietnamese law. On April 2, Human Rights Watch called for Vu’s release, noting he is one of Vietnam’s most prominent dissidents. Human Rights Watch Deputy Asia Director Phil Robertson told VOA Vu’s trial reflects internal Vietnamese politics and is not connected to recent popular uprisings in Africa and the Middle East. Hours before Vu’s conviction, Robertson said the trial may set the example of how Vietnam responds to criticism by members of its revolutionary elite. “Our assumption has got to be that they are trying to silence him, but I think they are probably looking beyond him also to other persons within the revolutionary elite who might want to raise their voice about what is happening, about corruption, malfeasance, abuse of human rights, land grabbing and the other things that are increasingly being raised by civil society groups from across the spectrum [in Vietnam],” he said. According to Human Rights Watch, Vu’s wide base of supporters includes workers, bloggers, catholic parishioners and land-rights activists.

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Vietnamese Dissident Gets 7-Year Jail Sentence

Thailand’s open and tightly integrated into global trade economy experienced a V-shape contraction and recovery from late 2008 through late 2009
The continuation of certain government policies, especially the pension to the elderly and free education should also support higher consumption levels for the poor. The longer-term goal of reducing reliance on external demand will take time, especially given political uncertainties that hinder the government’s ability to implement not only its investment program but also needed structural reforms.

Total shareholder returns (TSR) for 2009 are calculated by assuming that investors reinvest all cash received over the course of the year to determine a total return from one’s investment. The 2009 analysis covers 505 companies from the Stock Exchange of Thailand and the Market for Alternative Investment and is based on share valuations as of Dec 31 and dividend payments made over the 2009 calendar year.
There is a growing split in terms of family-run companies. There are those still dominated by the older generation, who are still conservative and don’t want to do much. And there are firms led by the younger generation, who are more active about transparency and investor relations.

The modern Thai capital market can essentially be divided into two phases, beginning with “The Bangkok Stock Exchange” which was privately owned, followed by the establishment of “The Securities Exchange of Thailand”.

The inception of the Thai stock market began as far back as July 1962, when a private group established an organized stock exchange as a limited partnership. The group later became a limited company and changed its name to the “Bangkok Stock Exchange Co., Ltd.” (BSE) in 1963.
Despite its well-intended foundation the BSE was rather inactive. Annual turnover value consisted of only 160 million baht in 1968, and 114 million baht in 1969. Trading volumes continued to fall sharply thereafter to 46 million baht in 1970, and then 28 million baht in 1971. The turnover in debentures reached 87 million baht in 1972, but stocks continued to perform poorly, with turnover hitting an all time low of only 26 million baht. The BSE finally ceased operations in the early 1970s.

It is generally accepted that the BSE failed to succeed because of a lack of official government support and a limited investor understanding of the equity market.

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China Scraps Health Declaration Requirement for All Travelers from November 1

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China has lifted all COVID-19 travel requirements, including the need to fill out a health declaration form. Travelers should still report symptoms voluntarily, however.

Travelers leaving and entering China are no longer required to fill in the China health declaration form, meaning that China has now lifted all travel requirements related to COVID-19. Travelers should still voluntarily report themselves to Customs staff if they have symptoms or have been diagnosed with an infectious disease. 

China’s General Administration of Customs (“Customs”) has announced that, as of Wednesday, November 1, 2023, it will no longer require people leaving and entering China to fill in the Entry/Exit Health Declaration Card (“Health Declaration Card”). This card was implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic to screen travelers for symptoms of COVID-19 by asking them to fill out a survey on their current health conditions and symptoms. The system then generated a QR code that travelers had to show to Customs staff when leaving or entering the country.

The removal of the Health Declaration Card requirement means that China has now lifted all COVID-era restrictions and requirements for travelers leaving and entering the country. This move could help to encourage more international travel to and from China, and will further improve the travel experience for passengers.

Existing regulations on declaring possible symptoms of infectious disease when traveling will still be in place, as we discuss below.

Read the original article.

China Briefing is written and produced by Dezan Shira & Associates. The practice assists foreign investors into China and has done since 1992 through offices in Beijing, Tianjin, Dalian, Qingdao, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Ningbo, Suzhou, Guangzhou, Dongguan, Zhongshan, Shenzhen, and Hong Kong. Please contact the firm for assistance in China at china@dezshira.com.

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Chinese commercial banks fear stimulus measures will do littl…

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China’s commercial banks are raising questions about whether the central bank’s recent cut to outstanding mortgage rates will be sufficient to hold back a flood of mortgage prepayments and help protect bank margins.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) unveiled new guidance last month requiring commercial banks to lower interest rates on outstanding mortgages for first-home loans. The new rates, which will be effective starting on September 25, aimed at stimulating consumption while also reducing the incentive for households to pay down their mortgages early, which had led to a decline in bank profits.

“Lowering outstanding mortgage rates will help alleviate the interest burden on households,” a spokesperson for the PBOC told local media on Wednesday, adding that the new rules have already led to a decline in prepayments, and will help improve household balance sheets and consumer confidence.

The measure has led at least some homebuyers to reconsider their mortgage prepayments.

Officers stand guard in front of the headquarters of the People’s Bank of China, the central bank, in Beijing on September 30, 2022. Photo: Reuters

Kang Chao, an insurance company employee in Changsha, in southeast China’s Hunan province, told the Post that a new mortgage rate of 4.2 per cent could help his family free up about 1,700 yuan (US$234) each month to cover living expenses.

“[My wife] and I both took out mortgage loans in 2018 and 2019, when the interest rates were as high as 5.15 per cent,” he said. “Each month, we need to pay about 9,800 yuan, and this leaves us no more than 3,000 yuan to spend on everything else.

“So we were under a lot of pressure to pay off our debt quickly, especially after we had a child. At one point, we were even considering selling one of our houses. Now that the new policy is out, we feel somewhat relieved.”

An estimated US$700 billion in mortgages, representing around 12 per cent of the country’s total mortgage balance, has been prepaid since 2022, according to analysts.

China property support spurs buying but sceptics warn of weak demand

Chinese commercial banks could see an earnings decline of up to 5 per cent this year if the prepayment wave persists, according to analysts’ estimates. However, if banks refinance home loans at lower rates, their net profits could also drop by 1 to 5 per cent, a report by Fitch Ratings said.

Early repayment is a behaviour driven by interest rates, and as the gap between new and outstanding mortgage rates narrows, the incentive to pay down mortgages early will start to decrease, said Gary Ng, senior economist for Asia-Pacific thematic research at Natixis.

“However, it does not mean [lowering outstanding mortgage rates] is a panacea for boosting China’s household confidence in properties,” he said. “The confidence issue is complex, and it will take more than rate cuts to repair. Although early repayment will ease, mortgage growth is not likely to see a significant jump.”

A banking analyst at the Beijing branch of a commercial bank echoed this…

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China trade: exports tumble for fourth consecutive month in A…

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China’s exports tumbled for the fourth consecutive month in August amid weak external demand and ongoing global supply chain upheaval, posing more challenges to the world’s second-largest economy as it struggles to carve out a path to a post-pandemic rebound.

Exports fell by 8.8 per cent compared to a year earlier to US$284.9 billion last month, according to customs data released on Thursday.

The decline, however, narrowed from a fall of 14.5 per cent in July, and was above the forecast by Chinese financial data provider Wind for a 9.5 per cent decline.

Imports, meanwhile, fell by 7.3 per cent last month to US$216.5 billion, narrowing from a 12.4 per cent decline in July, and exceeding the expectations from Wind for a drop of 8.2 per cent.

China’s total trade surplus in August stood at US$68.4 billion, down from US$80.6 billion in July.

“The typhoon in mid-July likely disrupted port operations in July and the normalisation of that could add to trade growth in August,” said economists from Goldman Sachs.

Improved year-over-year growth of oil prices would have also helped import growth last month, they added.

Heron Lim, assistant director and economist at Moody’s Analytics, said exports are expected to continue their retreat as weakness across the broader global economy keeps new export orders soft.

Will belt and road, Asean trade be China’s silver lining amid US de-risking?

“But as trade performance was already weakening from the second half of 2022, it will be slower,” he said.

The data showed that China’s exports to most of its major trading partners continued to shrink, although the declines narrowed from July.

Shipments to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations – China’s largest trade partner – fell by 13.25 per cent compared to a year earlier, marking the fourth consecutive monthly decline.

Exports to the European Union, meanwhile, declined by 19.58 per cent, year on year, while shipments to the United States dropped for the 13th consecutive month after falling by 9.53 per cent.

The figures still suggest the headwinds remain despite some marginal improvement

Zhou Hao

Zhou Hao, chief economist at Guotai Junan International, said while the August trade figures came in slightly better than expected, the overall momentum remains lukewarm.

“In general, the figures still suggest the headwinds remain despite some marginal improvement,” Zhou said.

“Looking ahead, whether China’s trade growth has already hit the bottom will hinge on several factors. The most important one is obviously the domestic demand where the recent property easing might provide some support in the short term.

“In the meantime, the rising oil prices suggest that the import growth in value terms might pick up somewhat in the foreseeable future.”

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